I can say it another 100 times if you like? You keep hyper focusing on one of my points when I have stated many times there were numerous reasons. The state of the list, including personnel, injuries, form, and then the easy draw ALL contributed to your inconsistent performances. For example Todd Goldstein was MUCH better in the first half of the year (polled in the coaches votes in 7 early games) before knee issues basically ruined his season, Higgins played the first 7 rounds when you were winning (against a lot of bottom 5 teams), Waite kicked 27 goals in the first 9 rounds and only 2 more for the rest of the season (was injured for many of those games), Jacobs played in seven of those early wins and then never again, Sam Wright played in 6 early wins and missed the majority of the rest of the year etc.
If you would like to make a case as to why you believe North were inconsistent I am happy to hear it, but I am not interested in going around in circles anymore.

Maybe the list just wasn’t that great? Also I thought you were quite consistent in 2013 with a LOT of close losses (the worst being 38 and 39 points to the Swans and Dockers away who were both top 4 teams)

I disagree – I think when assessing a coaches performance the overall consistency matters. Scott’s teams were very consistent in being finals calibre or close, but the list simply wasn’t good enough to be much more than that apart from a couple of seasons where they got some mature recruits for a push.

The main injuries were:
Goldstein (knee issues meant he was a shadow of his form the year prior where he won the B&F)
Higgins (3rd in the b&f in 2015)
Jacobs (7th in the b&f)
Wright (9th in the b&f)
Waite (joint leading goal scorer in 2015)
To a lesser degree players like Mcdonald and Wood (he was in quite good form in 2016 when he played)
Then there was the in game injuries, and you copped a lot of them. See this article:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/120914/winners-and-losers-on-the-2016-injury-ladder

No I am just saying that in 2016 they had a number of injuries and older players coming to the end of their career (North had quite a lot of in game injuries in 2016). Their peak was 2014-15, and in 2016 they were still decent but declining.
They were inconsistent within seasons, but those Brad Scott teams weren’t exactly world beaters that should of won multiple premierships. The fact that they made it to two prelims and either made finals or were competing to make finals in most of his years at the club doesn’t really show ‘notorious inconsistency’ in my opinion. From 2010-2018 they finished 9th or better 7 times. And another season they finished 10th with ten losses by 16 points or less. They only really had the one poor season under Scott in 2017, but the club was in a transitional period by then as many players with 100+ games experience were retiring or close to the end (dal santo, harvey, petrie, firrito, thomas, swallow, hansen, gibson, waite, and thompson not long after).

So why do you think you went 3-10 for the second half of the year? You did get some good wins to start the year for sure, but you also beat all of the bottom five teams. So that probably did make the 9-0 start look better than it was. And as I mentioned, injuries and declining older players played a part.

From memory wasn’t norths draw easy to start 2016, and they also got injuries that year? That was the year they started declining anyways with a number of players near the end or retiring, and they mostly have been rebuilding since then.

Why do you think Merrett would be a poor captain?

Actually we have won multiple finals this century.
We have one of the youngest and most inexperienced lists in the AFL. It is going to take time for us to develop our young group.

He is significantly better sure. But Redman, Mcgrath, Hind and now D’Ambrossio is a good collection of half-backs in their own right. Since Saad is 28 and most likely wouldn’t be apart of our next premiership, I would take the top 10 pick every day. Other areas of our best 22 are much weaker than our half-backs and the top 10 pick could potentially help us a lot more going forward than what Saad would for a few more seasons.

You think they are ‘so upset’ because they boo an ex-player? That happens all the time and is completely normal.
I gave you three very good reasons why Essendon supporters like myself and others I talk to don’t care about Saad leaving at all.

He isn’t a huge loss. We have Redman, Hind, McGrath and now D’Ambrossio that can play his position. Even if those players aren’t as good, Saad is 28 and won’t be in his prime when we are challenging. Getting a top 10 pick for him was huge as we need to keep adding quality young players in other positions.

Saad would be Essendon’s best half back without a doubt, and I also think he is worthy of the All-Australian team. We would be stronger with him for sure.
But it is not exactly a position we are lacking in. We have Redman ( has taken his game to another level this season), Hind (finding some better form recently) and McGrath is also quite capable when playing that position. D’Ambrossio has only played one game, but looks promising. We got a top 10 pick for Saad, and he is turning 28 this year. We are rebuilding and it is unlikely that Adam would still be around or in his prime when we are ready to challenge. For those reasons I don’t think his loss would bother many Essendon supporters from a list management perspective. I don’t lament his loss while watching him tear it up against us or other teams. Actually I couldn’t care less how well Saad is going for Carlton. I simply enjoy what our capable half-backs are doing, while knowing that for present Saad’s loss is fairly minimal, and for the long term a potentially large benefit (due to the top 10 pick).
So from my perspective, the booing from Essendon supporters isn’t because of ‘Carltonism’. It is for other reasons that you have mentioned. He left us at a terrible time, when we were already losing multiple best 22 players. He then joined one of our biggest rivals, with unclear motives as to the reason behind the move.
And as for your question ‘is Saad the least boo-able player in the AFL?’ – nope. He may play the game the right way, but he is boo-able for a very simple reason: a lack of loyalty. He has already left two clubs. I know it is something I have to get used to, but it still means something to a lot of people.

Stringer will still play an important role in the midfield. You can’t just write him off by saying ‘he will be needed forward’. He played forward plenty last season yet he was 5th in the league for centre clearances per game and 20th for inside 50’s. It shows he is a really important cog to our midfield despite only playing there part time.
Some of the teams you listed here have better top end talent, but definitely not depth. The reason we can play Heppell back is because of our depth of midfielders. He has proven to be a good quality midfield when he plays there.
Shiel and Mcgrath haven’t played their best footy since they have both had serious injuries the past two seasons. I disagree that ‘Mcgrath may come good’ I think he has already shown a lot and it’s not like he’s out best mid, he is like our 4th.
I also strongly disagree that ‘we wont be getting much value’ from players like Cox, Perkins, Caldwell. It may be a bit too early for Hobbs, but I believe the others will play important roles. They were already best 22 or close last season.
Anyways we are too far apart in our assessments of Essendons midfield, so it’s probably better if we leave it here. We will see what happens this season.

Which teams would you say have clearly better depth than Essendon?

I also think we are lacking a bit in elite talent to really push up the ladder, but I wouldn’t say we have a lot of ‘average’ players personally.
Players like Merrett, Parish, Stringer, Ridley, Hind, Mcgrath (as a defender) could be A graders in 2022 in my opinion.
Draper could be a very good ruckman. We also have some kids that were high draft picks which will hopefully add to that list too, such as Hobbs, Perkins, Cox, Reid, Caldwell. Jones was a later pick but has a lot of talent too.
Agree that our forward line will be the mostly likely thing holding us back though.

I completely disagree,and I think it is our strongest area of the ground. I think we have great depth. Merrett, Parish, Shiel, Mcgrath probably get the most time out of our senior players. Players like Langford, Stringer, Heppell can go through there at a good level. Even Snelling played more midfield due to injuries last year and is a solid role player. Then there are the kids like Cox, Perkins, Caldwell, Hobbs etc. All high draft picks.
Looks great to me.

The Bombers lost to Hawthorn last season, so in terms of their double-ups they only really have one harder match they need to win to keep the same win/loss record as last season. But they only travel to Geelong or interstate five times, vs eleven times last year. So I don’t agree that their draw is ‘much more difficult’.
Essendon did only win once against a finals team, but had close losses to Swans by 3 and 7 points, GWS by 2, and Melbourne by 11.
Fremantle only won twice against Finals teams, and one of them was the Swans by only 2 points, so not much difference.
Carlton only had the one win vs Essendon.
West coast had the one win vs Port.
Saints won three. Richmond four. I personally don’t rate the Saints higher than those former teams though. Richmond potentially for sure, but their second half of the season was putrid. They are also aging with martin cotchin grimes lambert riewoldt all turning 31 years or older this season and all were in the top 10 of Richmond’s best and fairest. Prestia will be 30 and is already getting a fair amount of soft tissue injuries. Tom lynch will be 30 and has had a few hammys in recent years, including one this pre-season. So there’s no guarantees they will improve either.

The reality is that most teams will NOT beat all of the same teams from one season in the following one. Take Melbourne for instance – they are the premiers and only lost four games for the entire season. Three of those losses were to teams they beat the previous year. It is extremely unlikely that Carlton will simply beat all those teams again like in your hypothetical. From your 2020 wins, you lost to Cats, North, Bulldogs, Suns and Swans in 2021.
‘The Bombers have exciting youngsters with upside that will see natural improvement – so do Carlton.’ – you might have. But they are not on the same level as Essendon’s young players in my opinion (and most people).
‘The Bombers had some injury issues in 2021 – Carlton had more injury issues.’ Marchbank getting back to full fitness and playing out a full season would just be a bonus at this point. If Curnow is now fit and ready to fire as you say it will definitely help, but not enough to catch up to teams like Essendon, even with the easier draw. Here are some injury comparisons from 2021. I listed the games they played rather than missed as it was quicker:
de koning 13 – draper 13
stocker 17 – langford 17
silvagni 15 – jones 16
curnow 4 – caldwell 3
martin 11 – shiel 8
williams 14 – stewart 17
marchbank 0 – hurley 0

Carlton had a few more injuries to players like Fisher/Cuningham and Docherty. I don’t think Cuningham or Docherty will start early in the season but I could be wrong.

But you can’t just assume that Carlton are going to beat the same teams again.
They were inconsistent and lost to the wooden spooners by nearly 40 points and GC when they were in a terrible rut. On their bad days Carlton could lose to anyone , and on their best they couldn’t beat anyone above 8th.
Bombers have plenty of potential upside due to quality developing players. I rate their young players such as Draper, Perkins, Cox, Jones, Caldwell, Reid and Hobbs very highly. They have played 20 games or less, and I think look significantly better than the equivalent developing Carlton players. Of course some are purely potential at this point, but all highly rated kids. Essendon started slowly, and they improved a lot as the season progressed. It took them time to learn the new game plan etc. Which may very well happen to the Blues with the new coaching panel.
You may be right in having more upside when it comes to injured players, but Curnow has played 15 games the past three seasons (yes I’m aware he played the last four games) and Marchbank none the past two. Pretty sure Docherty won’t be there round one either. Carlton do have some injury prone players unfortunately.

It could of been only one extra win against the bottom five but Carlton were that inconsistent even against the bottom teams. And as I pointed out, two of those were really terrible losses.
‘Lets just say the Bombers beat everyone they beat last year, but with the draw change in 2022 it drops them to 10 wins. If Carlton beat everyone they beat last year (but this time both times) they get to 10 wins – Carton don’t have to improve just beat the teams the beat in 2021 – if they also manage to pick up a win against North they get to 11 wins.’ One of many hypotheticals. If Essendon improve only a small amount they could split those close losses they had getting them a couple more wins. Maybe Carlton lose to teams that finished above them such as Fremantle or Bombers.
The young downgrade might not end up being as big as I think, but as it stands I think its fairly big.
How many of those players you mention replacing Betts are natural crumbing forwards though? Honey looked decent but it was only three games. Fisher has never managed much more than around 0.4 goals per game, fit or otherwise. Motlop zero games. I am not as optistmic as you are I guess (for 2022 in particular).
As for your last point, that is true, I am not writing them off completely.
Carlton did have a lot of injuries and some injury prone players. That is one point we can agree on – if they get significantly more out of some of those guys they should improve. Essendon also had best 22 players that had significant injuries such as Draper, Mcgrath, Shiel, Caldwell and Jones.

‘And 8th had 3 more wins against bottom 5 teams. Both teams won the same amount of games against teams outside the bottom 5’.
Essendon only got one extra game against the bottom five. The only game they lost to the bottom five was to Hawthorn by 1 point in round one.
Carlton did split the wins with Magpies and Suns, but also gave the worst performance by far against the wooden spooners (39 point loss). Carlton lost to the suns at the end of the year when gold coast were in very poor form and lost 5/6 games and most of them by 50+ points.
Essendon did win the same amount of games outside the bottom 5, but as I mentioned they had some very close losses: Swans by 3+7 points, Giants by 2+13 and Melbourne by 11. The Blue’s closest losses were by 14 and 16 points.
Carlton did get Cerra and Hewett and they are big ins. But that is somewhat offset by losing Jones (8th in their b&f) They replaced him with Young who has only played 24 games in five seasons – a big downgrade. Betts also finished 9th in their b&f and kicked their second highest goal tally with 27. The next highest was Owies with 15. So even though his best was far behind him, it is still a loss.
Carlton do have several injury prone players that could improve them, but none of those players you mentioned have played more than two games. I wouldn’t expect them to be difference makers in 2022.
The Bombers double ups are harder as I have admitted, but I also think that travelling eleven times was significant. You say Essendon have swapped double up vs Hawks and North for games against Brisbane and Power ‘likely wiping 2 wins off the ledger’ but they actually only won the one game against Hawthorn in 2021. With 7 of their 11 losses coming from interstate/geelong games, they can potentially make up the difference there. And hopefully now that they have had time to adjust to the new coaches/gameplan, they wont start the season so badly as 2021 (two wins from the first eight).
I disagree that the Blues don’t have to improve significantly to make up three games, 21 percentage points and the potential improvement from the teams above them.

True, but Carlton were three wins and 21 percentage points behind 8th, so they need to significantly improve just to catch up. But as you mentioned the sides that finished above them also have significant improvement.
Their draw will help, but they only play a bottom five team from last season one more time than Essendon.
Essendon lost 7 out of their 11 total losses interstate/in Geelong. Out of Carlton’s 14 losses, four were interstate. They only managed to win one game (against the Suns) outside of Melbourne. So that part of the fixture is likely to help Essendon just as much as Carlton having an extra game against the bottom 5 will help them.
Also Essendon lost four games by 7 points or less, and another by 11. Carlton’s closest loss was by 14 points.

Fair enough mate you’re entitled to your opinion. Essendon did have easy double ups last season but also played interstate or in Geelong a whopping eleven times. Carlton only did so five times last season.
The fixture will play a part in such an even comp, but I rate Essendons upside higher than several of these teams. It will be interesting to see what pans out.

Yeah but the thing is, Essendon has a fair bit of improvement in them too. They started the year slowly learning Truck’s new game plan, with only two wins from the first eight. They also lost Shiel, Mcgrath,Caldwell and Draper for significant parts of the year due to injury. Not insignificant due to them all playing in the middle. Really tested the midfield depth at times.

Then there’s the fact that the team is still pretty inexperienced. Hind, Stewart and Laverde basically played their first full season in defense and did well. They also have a number of best 22 players (or close) that have only played 20 or less games, such as Draper, Cox, Perkins, Jones, Caldwell, Durham and some other good kids such as Reid and Hobbs.
Competition will be tight, but I see no reason for the Bombers to regress.

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