This Saturday at Suncorp Stadium, the Wallabies face their biggest Test match on home soil in the last decade. This is made all the more significant by the fact the Wallabies were the victors the last time the Lions were here in 2001.
There are quite a number of factors leading into this Test which could determine the outcome:
The no.10 debate
Last year when Quade Cooper was happily tweeting away about how hard his life was at the Wallabies, I was less than impressed. I wished the guy would never again be allowed to pull on the green and gold.
This aside, this year the guy really has shown in Super Rugby and even off the field he simply is the form fly-half in Australian rugby.
It was a mistake of Deans to not pick Cooper and it is quite obvious why. Coupled with his experience at international level and his irresistible combination around the ruck with Will Genia, he should have been given the chance to start.
That said, James O’Connor is a guy I just can’t argue against being there either. I’ve always had a soft spot for him and think he will fill the role asked of him very well.
I just wonder whether he has the passing game Cooper displays when going wide and whether this will be needed against the Lions.
The Lions forward pack
This is the part of the night that everyone will really be dreading the most. While I have no doubt the Wallabies have selected the best of the best for the engagements on the front lines, the Lions just have that appeal about them in the forwards.
The Wallabies will have to be up to matching the Lions from the word go, especially at the breakdown in kickable positions.
If ill-discipline creeps into the Wallabies’ game on Saturday night, so will defeat.
Johnny Sexton and Leigh Halfpenny will savour any chance they get to line the ball up from all over the park. Place kicking is certainly one aspect of this Test where the Lions have the wood over the Wallabies.
Players such as Tom Youngs, Paul O’Donnell, Adam Jones and Sam Warburton are all in sensational form. The last two I’d call the best players in the world currently playing in their positions.
The Wallabies are however blessed with emerging talent in Micheal Hooper and Kane Douglas to name a few. Players such as Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore and James Horwill will lead from the front and bring a good balance to the side in terms of experience.
There is no doubt in my mind this Wallaby forward pack can set a tone for the backs to move the ball wide and give good timing for James O’Connor and Christian Lealilfano to create space for good go forward.
Who wants it the most?
While this isn’t something I have heard many people really talk about, the Lions must be feeling the pressure to return home with a series victory from Australia in 2013.
Not since 1997, on the tour of South Africa, have the Lions won a series and this year is being touted as their best opportunity to do so.
Australia though, will be as equally desperate to show the attacking enterprise they are known for across the rugby world is still there and they are still very much a force to be reckoned with on the world stage.
The Wallabies are seen as a side under all sorts of pressure after a rough year in 2012. The usual attacking spark the rugby fans of Australia have come to know seems to be amiss at present from the Wallaby set up.
Warren Gatland and his advisors must sense Australia is vulnerable, with even some Aussie supporters hoping for a series defeat as this would give them justification for the ousting of Robbie Deans.
Something different about this Wallaby team!
My final and most important point is while I was both initially shocked and despaired at the omission of Cooper by Deans, I don’t think he will be missed on Saturday night with the strategy the Wallabies are trying to execute against the Lions.
On paper this team is very balanced. James O’Connor is very calm and collected around the first receiver role and Lealiifano is excellent in both his general kicking and running game at inside centre, which will gives the team more options in attack.
This of course is all dependent on how quickly these guys can get ball in hand from the breakdown from Will Genia.
The outside men for the Wallabies are a mouth-watering prospect, with Israel Folau making his much anticipated debut, alongside Digby Ioane. Their explosive running games and natural ability to break open defences will be a real asset to the Wallabies.
Lastly, the decision to pick Berrick Barnes at fullback was a good one, even though he has had limited game time this season. Along with Adam-Ashley Cooper, these two bring the experience needed to the Wallabies game plan and stability.
In the time he has played this year, Barnes has shown very good form and seems to have reverted from kicking the ball so much when in midfield.
Having said this, there will come times during Saturday’s Test match where a good long kicking game is needed from the Wallabies if the Lions decide to launch any form of aerial assault.
My final tip is that the Australia will have enough of an X-Factor in the backs and a good balance in the forwards to counteract what the Lions throw at them and get home in Brisbane. It is after all considered the ‘spiritual home’ of rugby in Australia and the perfect place to kick off the business end of the Lions Tour in 2013.
Wallabies by 6.
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