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Fear of failure is such a powerful thing. Plenty of champions will tell you it is what drives them the most, and it will drive Queensland to yet another victory in State of Origin 1 tonight.
Some people may ask: Queensland are so used to winning, why would they even consider failure as a possibility?
The answer is this magnificent team is also an ageing one, and the older players know how long they remain there will be governed exclusively by how long they keep winning.
The big names have earned the right to keep going for as long as they want – as long as they stay on top.
More State of Origin:
>> 2014 State of Origin 1 live scores
>> State of Origin draw and news, teams referees, results
>> State of Origin preview (VIDEO)
>> PRENTICE: Why NSW will win Game 1
>> PRICHARD: Why QLD will win Game 1
>> GURU: I sniff an Origin upset
>> TURNER: Behind the scenes of Origin preparation
The Maroons would be prepared to risk losing a series by giving their hard core of long-established players the chance to save one, if they were to fall one game down. And that is how it should be. These great players have earned that right.
But if they were to fall two games down, the traditional rules would begin to apply again and changes would be made for game three. The dismantling of the legendary team would begin, because that’s the way it is in life.
If it was one-all in the series and Queensland then lost game three, those changes would be made the following year.
My view, for years now, is that as long as Queensland keep winning and their line-up remains strong, you keep tipping them at home and you strongly consider tipping them away – particularly if it is a Game 2 they need to win to keep the series alive, or a series-deciding game three.
I’m following those rules again this time, at least for Game 1, because there is no good reason to change at this stage.
Queensland have seven players aged at least 30 in their 17-man squad. That looks a worry on its own, until you consider NSW have six players who fall into the same bracket. And it is significant, when you consider that forwards have to do the most physical work, that those six 30-plus players among the Blues are all forwards, while only two of the 30-plus Maroons are forwards.
During their run of eight-straight series victories, Queensland have become harder and harder to beat at Suncorp Stadium, tonight’s venue. They have played ten games there during that time and won eight of them, including each of the last five. Only a fool would dismiss a statistic like that as anything other than hugely significant.
Halfback Trent Hodkinson will be making his Origin debut for NSW tonight. Five times a NSW halfback has made his Origin debut at Suncorp, or the old Lang Park before that, and four times they have lost.
I’m not saying the Blues will automatically lose with a rookie halfback – I’m glad NSW picked Hodkinson. It was time to move on from Mitchell Pearce and Hodkinson deserved a shot; he’s a very good player. I’m merely stating the obvious fact that it’s going to be difficult for him.
My reasons for tipping Queensland are more to do with Queensland than NSW. I haven’t mentioned one Queensland player’s name here, but I don’t need to, do I? So many of them have been together at this level for so long.
The series won’t be over if the Maroons do win, though. The Blues could come back and level the series by winning Game 2 at ANZ Stadium.
The Maroons have won 6 of the 11 games played there during their eight-year run, but the Blues have won 3 of the last 4.
That is just another indication that the Origin battle is getting tighter, as further evidenced by the fact series-deciding third games were won by just one point by the Maroons in 2012, at Suncorp, and two points last year, at ANZ.
The worry would be if the Blues suffered a heavy loss, which could be extremely damaging even coming back to their home ground for Game 2.
I’m expecting the Blues to be competitive. They obviously have to win at least one game at Suncorp if they are to win the series, and the first game may be their best chance. They will give it their all in a bid to clinch the series with a win at home. But there is so much at stake for the Maroons tonight as well.
The veteran Queensland stars will want to make their own decisions about when their Origin careers end, over the next couple of years, rather than risk having it taken it out of their hands by results swinging the way of the Blues.
NSW are desperate to stop losing, but Queensland are just as desperate to keep winning, because they know the clock is ticking and they can only keep it going as a group for so much longer.
The Maroons won’t be beaten on the score of motivation. The home-ground advantage and the presence of a quartet of superstars in the key positions should give them the edge.
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