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My 16 Ashes series predictions ahead of the first Test

Steve Smith and David Warner of Australia celebrate in happier times. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Roar Guru
22nd November, 2017
3

The first ball of the Ashes is just hours away. Here are my 16 fearless predictions for the entire series.

1. Australia to lead the series after two Tests ($1.75)
I really think this is close to a moral. Australia have a close to impregnable record at the Gabba, having not been beaten there since way back in 1988. The 28 Test matches since then have resulted in 21 Australian victories and seven draws, with a couple of those draws being ruined by rain when Australia were well on top.

I think Australia will win in Brisbane and then we move on to the lottery which could be the Pink Ball Test in Adelaide. With Australia having two bowlers who can bowl around 150km per hour, I think that’s an advantage to them, and the fact they have already played two Pink Balls Tests in Adelaide.

England look a side with plenty of question marks for me and, while you could say the same for a few spots in the Australian team, most of our players have pretty strong records on home soil.

2. Australia series handicap -1.5 Tests ($1.75)
I’ll be honest – I would like this to be a close series for the sake of the game. We have had two really turgid home summers out here in Australia of late and, while the public will enjoy England getting hammered 4-0 or 5-0, as a cricket lover I would much prefer a tight series with lots of highly competitive games.

Unfortunately, I’m not convinced we are going to get that as this look like a pretty weak England team. Positions 1, 3 and 5 in the batting order look highly vulnerable and, against a world class Australian attack, I expect them to struggle. While Anderson and Broad are high quality bowlers, I think both might be slightly less effective in Australian conditions, and Moeen Ali is going to struggle to pick up wickets like most overseas spinners.

England has won just one away series of their past five Test series on the road. During that period they have managed four victories and nine losses from 18 Test matches. And of course, last time they were out here with a side containing far better players like Petersen, Bell, Prior and Swann, but were belted 5-0. I think they’re in for a long summer.

England captain Alastair Cook looks on after being comfortably defeated by Australia

(Image: AFP Photo/William West)

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Under/over total series runs (Player must play four Tests or more)

1. Jonny Bairstow Over 299.5 Runs ($1.87)
I’m working off the theory here that Bairstow is a certainty to play every Test. I’m also thinking England will struggle in most Test matches, losing 20 wickets in most of them, meaning he is going to have two digs, and hopefully ten innings all up.

All he has to do then is average 30 in ten innings, with his career Test average being a highly respectable 39 from 46 Tests. Bairstow will be coming in around about Number 6 and could come up against tiring attacks on flat wickets, and get some decent scores. I think he is pretty good player albeit a bit loose.

2. Peter Handscomb Under 324.5 Runs ($1.85)
Handscomb has been out of sorts to start the Australian summer, scoring 157 runs at an average of 26 in three Sheffield Shield games. Don’t get me wrong; I think Handscomb is a really quality middle order player.

However, after a golden summer in his debut summer in Test colours against South Africa and Pakistan, I’m expecting the second summer to be tougher for him. Plus I think there could be games Australia really dominate, and Handscomb could easily only bat once in a couple of Test matches given he is coming in at Number 5.

3. David Warner Over 434.5 Runs ($1.87)
Last time England were out here, Warner dominated their attack, scoring 523 runs at 58. I think while James Anderson and Stuart Broad remain really experienced and quality international bowlers, Warner will fancy himself, particularly against Anderson and the Kookaburra ball.

I’m expecting a really flat wicket in Melbourne and Sydney, and Warner will enjoy the extra bounce in Brisbane and Perth, so I expect at least a couple of centuries from him and to score over 434 runs.

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David Warner celebrates his second century in Adelaide

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Over/under series wickets (Player must play four Tests or more)

1. Jimmy Anderson Under 19.5 Wickets ($1.87)
Jimmy Anderson is an all-time great fast bowler, however he only has a moderate record in Australia. Through 13 Tests, he’s taken 43 wickets at 38.44 runs in Australia, at an average of just over three wickets per Test.

He did take 24 wickets at 26 when England won the series out here 3-1 back in 2010-11; however he was a bowler at the peak of his powers age wise back then. I just think at age 35, and with the ball not swinging as much in some hot conditions out here, Jimmy might function rather than flourish.

2. Pat Cummins Under 18.5 Wickets ($1.87)
There is no doubt his quality as a bowler, Pat Cummins, however I’m banking on him being rested from one Test here, meaning he needs 19 wickets in four Tests. That is an average of nearly five wickets a game, which would be above his strike rate of 21 wickets from five Tests played.

I think he will be used in short stints with spells of 4-5 overs, so he really needs to rip through a side if he is to take 6-7 wickets in a Test match and put him ahead of the ledger here. I just think Hazlewood and Lyon will get more wickets than most experts predict and, while Cummins will be effective, he won’t be among the leading wickets takers.

Head-to-head series runs (Both players must play four Tests or more)

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1. Joe Root to score more runs than Steve Smith ($2.15)
I think this is a value bet here. Joe Root is more than likely to have ten innings if the series goes the way I expect it go and Australia dominate a couple of Test matches. Steve Smith may not get ten innings if Australia are well in front in games and end up declaring or winning games by an innings.

Plus I think Smith has been so prolific of late, he might be due a series where he isn’t taking all before him. Root will really have the eye of the tiger, being his first real pressure series at captain, and I think he is just as good a player as Smith, right in that world class category of perhaps five or six players around the world.

2. David Warner to score more runs than Alastair Cook ($1.55)
This look close to a moral to me even though it’s poison odds. I know Cook has done well in Australia before, however he looks a jaded player to me.

Ricky Ponting made a poignant quote the other day, once you reach that 145-150 Test matches, it’s a huge amount of cricket, and the motivation and drive to keep bettering yourself gets harder and harder.

I also think attacks have worked out Cook a little bit in how to frustrate him, and how to limit his scoring, by bowling fuller and wider. Warner has an imperious record in Australia and feasts on England with 523 runs in the last series against them out here.

While Cook will occupy the crease and make Australia work for his wicket, I see Warner going big and blowing him out of the water.

3. Jonny Bairstow to score more runs than Peter Handscomb ($2.05)
I just think with this head to head clash, Bairstow is going to get more innings under his belt. Handscomb batting at five for Australia could well be stranded a few times if Australia dominate like I expect them to.

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Bairstow will be coming in under the radar at Number 6, and I think he is a pretty handy player, and one of the few that might excel in Australian conditions. This is more a gut feeling pick than anything else, as everything seemed to go right for Handscomb last summer, and it’s never easy to reproduce that two summers in a row.

Head-to-head series wickets (Both players must play four Tests or more)

1. Josh Hazlewood to take more wickets than Stuart Broad ($1.70)
Broad enjoys bowling out here, however Hazlewood could feast on a pretty brittle English batting order. With both Starc and Cummins likely to bowl in short spells I think Hazlewood could be relied upon to do plenty of the donkey work, meaning he bowls more overs and is more chance of taking wickets.

I think his fitness is pretty durable these days, and I think while Broad will get wickets, there might be games where Australia only bat once, giving Hazlewood far more opportunity to take more poles than Broad.

2. Nathan Lyon to take more wickets than Moeen Ali ($1.65)
I think this is close to a moral. Have a look at some of the great overseas spinners’ records in Australia, and they are not pretty. The likes of Muralitharan, Harbajan, Kumble, Swann etc all averaged well over 40 in Australia and struggled to take big hauls.

Nathan Lyon loves bowling in Australian conditions and, with Australia only having four bowlers, he will do plenty of bowling this summer. While Moeen is a handy spinner, I would hardly call him a genuine front liner.

Lyon averages close to four wickets a Test in his career, with 269 wickets from 69 games, while Ali has 128 from 44, at less than three wickets per Test. Lyon will take more wickets comfortably.

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Value bets

1. England don’t win a Test ($3.25)
Well, I could be miles off here, however they didn’t win a Test last time they were out here and that was with a superior side.

I just don’t like the depth and overall quality in this squad. England have won just four of their last 18 away Tests, and were belted 5-0 last time they were out here. I think their best chances to win are the Pink Ball Test in Adelaide and perhaps if there is a dead rubber towards the end of the series.

2. Series correct score – Australia 4-0 ($8) Australia 4-1 ($7)
I would be looking at playing these two scores given everything generally needs to go right to manage a 5-0 whitewash.

There is always the chance that England could get on top and win a Test, or that a Test match could be lost to rain. Plus I’m expecting Sydney and Melbourne to perhaps be Tests that are dead rubbers, and the wickets could be very flat at both venues, increasing the chances of an upset or the one draw in the series.

3. Player of the series – David Warner $6, Josh Hazlewood $10
We’re allowed to have two cracks here as both are at good value. I expect Australia to dominate this series, so naturally I’m looking for an opening batsman and opening bowler with good records in Australia who are likely to play all five Test matches.

David Warner, I expect to really dominate this England attack and have another massive summer. I think he could edge out Steve Smith who might have fewer opportunities to build massive hundreds batting at four.

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With Hazlewood, I think he is far more likely to play five Tests than both Starc and Cummins, and he is also likely to bowl far more overs. He could really be Australia’s new Glenn McGrath if he stays fit, and I think he might nick off several English batsmen this summer.

4. Test venue to produce the most runs – SCG @ $4.50
Well, we can rule out the Pink Ball Test being the highest scoring one straight away. Night time appears a nightmare to bat, and some world class bowlers will enjoy those conditions. I’m thinking England are going to really struggle in Brisbane and Perth with the extra bounce and pace.

Melbourne will be flat, however it’s a massive outfield and harder to clear the ropes and hit as many fours. Which leaves us with the last Test in Sydney.

With Australia having already won the Ashes, Channel Nine are not going to want another three-dayy Test, so this wicket will be flat and Australia will be resting a couple of key bowlers by this point. Expect this to be a run fest and perhaps the only draw of the summer.

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