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Wimbledon 2018: Draw analysis and potential matches to watch

Nick Kyrgios has a great chance of becoming a top ten player. (Photo: AFP)
Roar Guru
30th June, 2018
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The draws for the 2018 Wimbledon Championships have been released, and both the men’s and women’s fixtures have thrown up some cracking potential matches to watch over the next fortnight.

In the men’s division, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are the top two seeds, meaning they cannot face each other until the final, while Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev have also been separated from each other after being assigned to the top and bottom halves of the draw respectively.

Former champions Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are both in the bottom half of the draw, though both are in separate quarters, meaning they could meet in the semi-finals should both get that far.

As always, we start from the top of the draw, where Federer, the eight-time champion, will begin his title defence against Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic before potentially striking 32nd seed Leonardo Mayer in the third round.

Also in his section of the draw are former Wimbledon quarter-finalists Mikhail Youzhny and Ivo Karlovic, who both face off in the opening round for a likely shot at Mayer in the second round.

The first genuine threat Federer could encounter is 16th seed Borna Coric, who upset the Swiss Maestro to win the Halle Open last week; it was this result which saw him drop to second behind Rafael Nadal in the rankings.

Roger Federer

Switzerland’s Roger Federer. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)

If the 36-year-old reaches the quarter-finals as expected, then he could face either 11th seed Sam Querrey, a semi-finalist last year, or eighth seed and US Open finalist Kevin Anderson.

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The pair are drawn to meet each other in the fourth round, but not before some potentially tricky obstacles along the way.

Querrey starts against Australia’s Jordan Thompson and could strike Richard Gasquet (whose first match is against compatriot Gael Monfils) in the third round, while the first seed Anderson could face is Germany’s Philipp Kohlschreiber, a quarter-finalist in 2012.

The third quarter of the draw is led by last year’s beaten finalist, Marin Cilic, as well as 2014 semi-finalist Grigor Dimitrov and three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka, who has dropped out of the world’s top 200 after battling a knee injury for the better part of the past twelve months.

Cilic starts against Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka, with 13th seed Milos Raonic shaping as his likely fourth round opponent. The Canadian starts against British wildcard Liam Broady, whose sister Naomi has drawn women’s defending champion Garbine Muguruza in her first match (more below).

But the pick of the matches would have to be the Dimitrov versus Wawrinka showdown, with the Bulgarian to start as the favourite against a man who has not enjoyed a lot of success on grass over the course of his career.

Wawrinka is attempting to complete a career Grand Slam, having won the Australian, French and US Opens once each, but Wimbledon remains his worst major tournament, having never reached the semi-finals at SW19.

Switzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka reacts after a point against Spain's Rafael Nadal during the men's singles final on day 14 of the 2014 Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne on January 26, 2014. AFP PHOTO / SAEED KHAN

Stan Wawrinka (Source: AFP PHOTO / SAEED KHAN)

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And judging by his fallen ranking, injuries and poor form over the past twelve months, it’ll be difficult seeing him completing his set at the All England Club.

Should Cilic and Dimitrov successfully navigate their way through the early rounds, they will meet in the quarter-finals with a possible semi-final date against Roger Federer at stake.

Recent French Open finalist Dominic Thiem is the leading name in the third quarter of the draw.

He faces a potentially tough path to the quarter-finals, facing Marcos Baghdatis in his first match before possible further engagements against David Ferrer, Fernando Verdasco and Novak Djokovic.

The Serb, who is seeded 12th, faces Australian Open quarter-finalist Tennys Sandgren in the first round, and could then strike 21st seed and local favourite Kyle Edmund in the third.

Further down the draw, Australia’s Nick Kyrgios, who is seeded 15th, has a first up showdown against Denis Istomin and should not be troubled until at least the third round, where 24th seed Kei Nishikori could await.

The 2014 quarter-finalist could then face fourth seed Alexander Zverev in the round of sixteen. Nishikori, should he win his first match against American qualifer Christian Harrison as expected, will face a lucky loser in the second round.

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While world number one Rafael Nadal (who is seeded second owing to his recent poor performances on grass) is the big name to watch out for in the bottom quarter of the draw, all eyes will be on Andy Murray, who is unseeded at a Grand Slam tournament for the first time since 2006.

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal. (Mike Egerton/PA via AP)

The two-time champion, who defeated Stan Wawrinka in the first round of the Eastbourne International earlier this week, is up against Benoit Paire in his first match and should he reach the third round, he is likely to face former US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro, who is seeded fifth.

Nadal, who is shooting for a third Wimbledon title, starts against Israel’s Dudi Sela, after which he could face, in this order, Vasek Pospisil, Marco Cecchinato and Diego Schwartzman en route to a likely quarter-final showdown against either del Potro or Murray.

Should seedings hold, the quarter-finals would appear like this:

Quarter-finals
[1] Roger Federer (SUI) versus [8] Kevin Anderson (RSA)
[3] Marin Cilic (CRO) versus [6] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
[7] Dominic Thiem (AUT) versus [4] Alexander Zverev (GER)
Andy Murray (GBR) versus [2] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

Semi-finals
[1] Roger Federer (SUI) versus [3] Marin Cilic (CRO)
[4] Alexander Zverev (GER) versus [2] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

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Predicted championship outcome
[1] Roger Federer (SUI) defeats [2] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

We now switch over to the women’s draw, where despite being ranked outside the top 150, Serena Williams has been granted a seeding of 25th, which means the original 32nd seed, Dominika Cibulkova, has been thrown to the wolves as an unseeded player.

More on that shortly, but as always, we start from the top half, where Simona Halep will open her bid for a first Wimbledon title against Japan’s Kurumi Nara, with 30th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looming as her first seeded threat in the third round.

Also in this section of the draw is recent Australian Open semi-finalist Elise Mertens, and last year’s Wimbledon semi-finalist Johanna Konta, who has dropped out of the top 20 after a poor first half of the season.

The two are projected to meet in the third round, but the latter could face Cibulkova in the second round after the Slovak was controversially denied a seeding despite being ranked 32nd in the world.

The second section of the draw is headlined by former Grand Slam champions Jelena Ostapenko, Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova, with the former two set to face off in the third round for a likely shot at the two-time Wimbledon champion in the last sixteen.

Kvitova, who successfully retained her title in Birmingham last week, starts against Aliaksandra Sasnovich and could then face Gavrilova, who she beat at the said event, in the third round.

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The Czech could then face off against Sharapova in the fourth round in what would be a rematch of the 2011 final, won by the left-hander. It would also be their first meeting at a major since the 2012 French Open semi-finals, which was won by the Russian on her way to completing her Grand Slam set.

Defending champion Garbine Muguruza headlines the second quarter of the draw; her first match is against British wildcard Naomi Broady, and the first seed she could face is Estonian Anett Kontaveit.

Garbine Muguruza French Open 2016 Tennis

Spain’s Garbine Muguruza. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

Australia’s Ashleigh Barty is in this section of the draw and while she should beat Stefanie Voegele in her first match, she could then face former Wimbledon finalist Eugenie Bouchard in the second round.

The Canadian was able to navigate her way through qualifying after very nearly falling out of the world’s top 200 following her well-documented struggles with form following her rise up the tennis ranks four years ago.

Whichever of the three reaches the quarter-finals could face either eleventh seed Angelique Kerber, or sixth seed Caroline Garcia, who both have potentially tough opening matches of their own to tackle.

Kerber’s first match is against Vera Zvonareva, who like Bouchard is a former finalist at the All England Club and who had to qualify to reach the main draw, while Garcia is up against former world number seven Belinda Bencic, who is trying to work her way back up the rankings.

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We now move down to the third quarter of the draw, where former world number ones Karolina Pliskova and Victoria Azarenka could face off in the second round.

The pair’s last meeting was in Madrid, where the Czech fended off a third-set challenge from the Belarussian to win 7-5 in the final set.

Whichever of the two reaches the fourth round is likely to face ninth seed Venus Williams, who is up against Johanna Larsson in her opening match.

The highest-ranked player in this quarter is fourth seed and beaten French Open finalist Sloane Stephens, who faces a potentially tough clash against Donna Vekic in her first match.

The 25-year-old should not be troubled until at least the fourth round, where she is projected to face either Germany’s Julia Goerges or Rio Olympic gold medallist Monica Puig, who are up against each other in the first round.

The big name to watch out for in the bottom quarter of the draw isn’t current Australian Open champion Caroline Wozniacki, but rather Serena Williams, who despite being ranked 183rd in the world has been given a seeding of 25th by the All England Club’s seeding committee.

Caroline Wozniacki

Denmark’s Caroline Wozniacki (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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The seven-time Wimbledon champion has made some steady progress after returning from maternity leave, reaching the fourth round at Roland Garros before being forced to withdraw mid-tournament due to a pectoral injury.

Her first match is against the Netherlands’ Arantxa Rus, with fifth seed Elina Svitolina and tenth seed Madison Keys looming as her major seeded threats en route to a likely quarter-final collision with second seed Wozniacki.

The Dane will need to navigate her way through a tough draw if she is to reach the quarter-finals at SW19 for the first time; after starting against Varvara Lepchenko, the 28-year-old could then face the always-dangerous Ekaterina Makarova in the second round.

2012 finalist Agnieszka Radwanska could then await in the third round before a likely fourth round rematch against CoCo Vandeweghe, the same woman who beat her at the same stage twelve months ago.

Should seedings hold, the quarter-finals would appear like this.

Quarter-finals
[1] Simona Halep (ROU) versus [8] Petra Kvitova (CZE)
[3] Garbine Muguruza (ESP) versus [11] Angelique Kerber (GER)
[9] Venus Williams (USA) versus [4] Sloane Stephens (USA)
[25] Serena Williams (USA) versus [2] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)

Semi-finals
[8] Petra Kvitova (CZE) versus [3] Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
[9] Venus Williams (USA) versus [25] Serena Williams (USA)

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Predicted championship outcome
[25] Serena Williams (USA) defeats [8] Petra Kvitova (CZE)

Matches to watch on Day 1
The men

[1] Roger Federer (SUI) versus Dusan Lajovic (SRB)
[11] Sam Querrey (USA) versus Jordan Thompson (AUS)
Gael Monfils (FRA) versus [23] Richard Gasquet (FRA)
[3] Marin Cilic (CRO) versus Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN)
Liam Broady (GBR) versus [13] Milos Raonic (CAN)
Stan Wawrinka (SUI) versus [6] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)

The women
Johanna Larsson (SWE) versus [9] Venus Williams (USA)
[13] Julia Goerges (GER) versus Monica Puig (PUR)
Donna Vekic (CRO) versus [4] Sloane Stephens (USA)
[5] Elina Svitolina (UKR) versus Tatjana Maria (GER)
Arantxa Rus (NED) versus [25] Serena Williams (USA)
Ajla Tomljanovic (AUS) versus [10] Madison Keys (USA)
Varvara Lepchenko (USA) versus [2] Caroline Wozniacki (USA)

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