Preview of AFL round 16 games (all times local).
FRIDAY, July 17
ESSENDON v WESTERN BULLDOGS at Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
Head to head: Essendon 87 Bulldogs 57 Drawn 2
Last time: Bulldogs 23.13 (151) bt Essendon 15.15 (105) R21, 2008, Etihad Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Essendon $3 Bulldogs $1.36
Sportingbet: Essendon $3.10 Bulldogs $1.36
The biggest challenge for the Bombers is switching styles within a week, from the lockdown tactics Sydney forced last week to the free-flowing game the Bulldogs like to employ. The Bulldogs will be fired up after an unexpected loss to Collingwood, initiated by a sluggish start and will be out to score early. Essendon are clinging to a spot in the eight but this clash will test their real relevance as a September contender. Essendon have a nice mix up-forward, with Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas providing the experience and Angus Monfries and Alwyn Davey the youthful zest.
Key: The Bulldogs’ classy midfield and their many scoring options will mean the Bombers will have their hands full trying to contain them.
Tip: Bulldogs by 25 points.
SATURDAY, July 18
CARLTON v SYDNEY at Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Head to head: Carlton 124 Sydney 82 Drawn 6
Last time: Sydney 12.12 (84) bt Carlton 9.13 (67) R4, 2009, SCG
TAB Sportsbet: Carlton $1.22 Sydney $4
Sportingbet: Carlton $1.22 Sydney $4.25
Carlton are set to consign their 12-game losing streak to Sydney to history this weekend. Sydney as usual will be out to manufacture as many stoppages as possible but they have seriously lost momentum and are virtually ruled out of finals contention. Carlton might have scored a win over lowly Richmond last week but they all count and the victory has boosted them into seventh spot on the ladder with the ledger now in the black at 8-7. Away from the SCG the Swans are much more fragile. Their major challenge will be to stop the Blues swooping the ball out of the centre and spiriting it down to the forward line.
Key: After a career-best nine goal haul against the Tigers last week Brendan Fevola is in fearsome form and presents a nightmare for Sydney.
Tip: Carlton by 30 points
GEELONG v MELBOURNE at Skilled Stadium, 2.10pm
Head to head: Geelong 120 Melbourne 83 Drawn 2
Last time: Geelong 15.21 (111) bt Melbourne 10.8 (68) R6, 2009, MCG.
TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.04 Melbourne $9.25
Sportingbet: Geelong $1.05 Melbourne $9.75
Second-placed Geelong have lost two games in a row while the Demons have won two in succession – almost certainly a meaningless statistic. The Cats’ loss to Brisbane was not a huge shock given the number of star players missing from their side. But on Saturday they will be closer to full strength with the return of Brownlow Medal favourite Gary Ablett, Matthew Scarlett and Andrew Mackie. Melbourne have got the points with two fighting wins against West Coast and Port Adelaide, unearthing a new excitement machine in the form of high-leaping youngster Liam Jurrah.
Key: The class back in the Cats side means there is little chance of them tripping up again on the weekend they celebrate their 150th anniversary.
Tip: Geelong by 40 points.
COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN at the MCG, 7.10pm
Head to head: Collingwood 93 Hawthorn 54 Drawn 0
Last time: Hawthorn 17.14 (116) bt Collingwood 8.14 (62) R18, 2008, MCG.
TAB Sportsbet: Collingwood $1.36 Hawthorn $3
Sportingbet: Collingwood $1.36 Hawthorn $3.10
In a stunning turnaround in fortunes, Collingwood will be out to win their eighth straight game for the first time in 18 years while premier Hawthorn are falling out of sight of the finals. The Hawks made a return to form against North Melbourne last week while the Magpies beat the Western Bulldogs by one point to extend their streak and seize a top four spot. The Hawks will need to do more than come from behind this week to breaking through the Pie lines and will have their hands full in the midfield dealing with the likes of Alan Didak, Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury.
Key: Lance Franklin made a comeback in front of goals last week but Collingwood has the defence to give him and fellow spearhead Jarryd Roughead a frustrating time.
Tip: Collingwood by 20 points
FREMANTLE v BRISBANE at Subiaco, 5.40pm
Head to head: Fremantle 6 Brisbane 12 Drawn 0
Last time: Brisbane 14.12 (96) bt Fremantle 10.14 (74) R11, 2009, Gabba.
TAB Sportsbet: Fremantle $3 Brisbane $1.36
Sportingbet: Fremantle $3.20 Brisbane $1.35
Brisbane continue to impress under new coach Michael Voss and regardless of Geelong’s injury problems, beating the Cats last week was a handy scalp. By contrast, the Dockers were embarrassing as they could manage only one goal against Adelaide. Despite the biggest road trip in the AFL, the Lions should have few troubles posting their 10th win.
Key: As always, Lions captain Jonathan Brown and fellow key forward Daniel Bradshaw will cause massive headaches for the opposition defence.
Tip: Lions by 40 points
SUNDAY, July 19
PORT ADELAIDE v WEST COAST at AAMI Stadium, 12.40pm
Head to head: Port Adelaide 12 West Coast 6 Drawn 0
Last time: West Coast 19.11 (125) bt Port Adelaide 10.15 (75) R2, 2009, Subiaco.
TAB Sportsbet: Port Adelaide $1.12 West Coast $5.75
Sportingbet: Port Adelaide $1.17 West Coast $5
No team is giving tipsters more Friday afternoon headaches than Port Adelaide. There is no consistency to their season and they were well off their best in the upset loss to Melbourne. Purely because of that inconsistency, put them down for this home win. While the Eagles pushed St Kilda for three quarters on Sunday, they were swept away in the last term. The Eagles look like they lack the “oomph” to pull off an big win here.
Key: Dean Cox’s absence sets up Port ruckmen Dean Brogan and Brendon Lade for a big day.
Tip: Port by 30 points
RICHMOND v NORTH MELBOURNE at the MCG, 2.10pm
Head to head: Richmond 81 North Melbourne 64 Drawn 1
Last time: Richmond 13.16 (94) bt North Melbourne 7.16 (58) R5, 2009, Etihad Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $1.95 North Melbourne $1.80
Sportingbet: Richmond $1.93 North Melbourne $1.87
The battle of the caretaker coaches – Richmond’s Jade Rawlings and North’s Darren Crocker – is a big opportunity for the Tigers. The two sides have enjoyed the freshness that a new coach brings and they’re playing with plenty of spirit. They’re probably on a par and what tips the scales in Richmond’s favour is that North had a tough slog in the Launceston wet last Sunday against Hawthorn.
Key: Can Tigers youngsters such as Robbie Nahas and Jayden Post keep improving and seal what appears to be a very winnable game?
Tip: Richmond by 10 points
ST KILDA v ADELAIDE at Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Head to head: St Kilda 12 Adelaide 16 Drawn 1
Last time: St Kilda 15.11 (107) bt Adelaide 10.9 (69) R2, 2009, Etihad Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: St Kilda $1.28 Adelaide $3.50
Sportingbet: St Kilda $1.27 Adelaide $3.75
For the third week in a row, the league is blessed with a game at Etihad Stadium that will impact heavily on the top four. Adelaide are fifth, but equal-third on premiership points and they must win to keep pace with the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. The Saints are strong enough to cope with any after-effects from Sunday’s match in Perth and coach Ross Lyon has made it clear they will not relent. The Crows have won their last seven and will push the unbeaten Saints.
Key: One of the keys to Adelaide’s surge has been a much more productive attack. Kurt Tippett, Jason Porplyzia and co face their biggest test against the league’s best defensive team.
Tip: St Kilda by 12 points
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