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From a Super Saturday that produced a thousand talking points, I will discuss the one I’m most passionate about today. Trainer Peter Snowden and racing operation Darley should go against their word and run their filly Guelph in the Cox Plate.
It’s not because I’ve backed her to win the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age). And it’s not because she’s easily my favourite horse right now.
No, they are two derivatives of my high opinion of Guelph. I am invested in this filly – financially and emotionally – but only because I have incredible belief in her ability.
That belief only enhanced itself on Saturday. Guelph, seemingly an unbeatable favourite in the Flight Stakes (1600m, Group 1, three-year-old fillies), had to sit three wide on the speed and without any cover. But she did it with ease, claiming her third Group 1 by almost two lengths.
In the aftermath, trainer Peter Snowden said he wasn’t overly keen on a Cox Plate start for Guelph. She may run in the Cox Plate but only if the temptation – on the back of an easy Thousand Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-old fillies) victory next Wednesday – is unbearable.
He is thinking of the filly’s best interests. And as a trainer, not many have acquired the respect of everyone in the racing industry as fast as Snowden has. Thrust into the role of trainer for Darley in 2008, Snowden – a long time foreman for John Hawkes – is one the best conditioners in Australian racing.
When Snowden says he is not keen to start Guelph in the Cox Plate, you have to listen. Guelph had an enormous autumn campaign. In fact, it’s been an enormous career. She was unveiled with the first lot of two-year-olds when debuting in second place almost exactly twelve months ago in the Gimcrack (1000m, Listed, fillies).
And since then, the bar has always been set high. Save for contests against the older horses, the only Group 1 Guelph has been eligible for and hasn’t run in, was last month’s Golden Rose (1400m, Group 1, three-year-olds).
At 1200m– a distance too short – against the juveniles she was ninth and fourth in the Blue Diamond (Group 1) and Golden Slipper (Group 1) respectively. But in four starts beyond 1200m, she is unbeaten and a three-time winner at Group 1 level.
She won the Sires Produce (1400m, Group 1, two-year-olds) emphatically and pinched the Champagne (1600m, Group 1, two-year-olds) with a blinding final section.
I had always been a fan of Guelph – a more perfectly-built filly I have not seen. But after the Champagne I began to realise a future powerhouse had been unearthed. I wrote on the Monday after, in late April, that the Cox Plate could be her race.
‘In my whole life, I don’t think I’ve ever had a bigger opinion of an autumn two-year old than Guelph. Guelph is so good that at the same age I rate her better than Pierro – who won last year’s two-year-old Triple Crown.
‘Albeit, I concede there was more depth in the juveniles last season.
‘…So much so that right now my hypothetical $10 for the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age) would be sitting on the nose of Guelph. If bookies actually had her in the market, you could delete the word ‘hypothetical’ from the previous sentence.’
Snowden sent Guelph to the well seven times as an autumn two-year-old. No doubt, that long campaign is sitting firmly in his mind as he comes to decide when the star filly gets her summer break. He wants Guelph in one piece for the autumn because quite obviously she is going to be a force to be reckoned with.
But, when I look at Guelph and her impeccable constitution – the biggest, best-looking filly I have ever seen and by some way – there’s no doubt in my mind that she could sustain another two runs this preparation. When she paraded on Saturday, my eyes told me she had improvement still to come.
Guelph would handle the pressure of a Cox Plate with ease. Her class – notwithstanding the featherweight 47.5kgs she must lug – will carry her into the finish. I’m as sure as I can be.
Her seven-run autumn campaign should not be a negative. It shows she can handle a big workload – and the Cox Plate fifth-up is more than attainable for a filly of Guelph’s size.
It’s been a long time since I can remember a short favourite in a Group 1 being as obviously exposed as Guelph was in the Flight on Saturday. It could’ve brought about a shock defeat but it didn’t. And don’t underestimate why Guelph was able to overcome a wide run.
Guelph’s easy nature allowed her to find a rhythm and that meant she was always going to win as soon as jockey Kerrin McEvoy decided he should keep the filly three wide rather than make a daring decision to either go forward or back.
I’ve come to learn that it’s possible to race wide and win if a horse is able to relax in that exposed position. And Guelph’s ability to relax will not only see her stay 2000m when given the chance but it will help her handle the pressure of big Group 1s like the Cox Plate.
Excluding Atlantic Jewel, Guelph is the best filly I’ve ever seen.
But that may not be the case for every racing person because opinions are like elbows (everyone has them).
Some people say that Miss Finland, a three-year old filly in 2006-2007, was a better filly than Guelph.
But in stating my case, I will refer to Saturday’s Flight won by Guelph and the 2006 Edward Manifold (1600m, Group 2, three-year-old fillies), contested by Miss Finland, which incidentally is always run on the same day as the Flight but at Flemington.
Here, in the 2006 Edward Manifold, Miss Finland was placed in a similar position to that of Guelph – she was a short-priced favourite (the record books say $1.57) and she was trapped three wide just as Guelph was on Saturday.
Miss Finland’s jockey Craig Williams was forced to make a decision, just as Guelph’s McEvoy had to on the weekend.
Does Williams show belief in his filly’s ability to race without cover and allow her to travel off the track? Or does he go back to find cover? Or go forward to lead?
Williams decided that Miss Finland could not be exposed off the track so he gave her a squeeze to send her forward. And in response, the filly took off. She raced to the lead with 1400m to go and didn’t stop.
Miss Finland had moved six lengths clear before Williams – quite possibly the world’s best jockey when in hot form – could gain control.
The filly, having raced ungenerously and done so much early work, was a sitting duck in the final furlong and was beaten by She Will Be Loved.
And right there is the reason I think Guelph is a rung above Miss Finland when it comes to comparing fillies on the Cox Plate path.
Guelph has the temperament and constitution to successfully complete a Cox Plate preparation.
She will handle the Moonee Valley occasion because she has handled with supreme class almost every situation she has been dealt.
History says that Miss Finland ran sixth in the 2006 Cox Plate.
She didn’t have a lot of luck and didn’t handle the pressure and buffeting typical of many Cox Plates very well. The seeds of doubt were planted in the first week of that season’s October – in the Manifold when she so badly over-raced.
The chinks in Guelph’s armour have not been revealed yet. If she is to be well handled in the Cox Plate perhaps it will only be because she either isn’t good enough (and that’s always a chance when any horse is sent up in grade and distance) or she doesn’t have the tactical speed to race close to the lead, thus setting a big task for herself in the final 600m.
But that doesn’t mean she should not contest the weight-for-age championship.
There are plenty of people, myself included, who believe in this filly’s ability, and she showed in the Flight that racing near to the speed is possible if the circumstances (a slow early speed one of them) permit.
Historians will point to the fact that only one filly has ever won the Cox Plate – Surround in 1976.
But a main reason for Surround being the lone filly to win the championship is because so few fillies have contested the race since. History is made to be broken but it will only be broken if genuine attempts are made to do so.
In the 36 renewals of the Cox Plate since 1976, only 11 fillies have contested the race.
Most ran eighth or worse and only three have run in the top five (Yir Tiz fifth in 1980; Slight Chance third in 1992; and Samantha Miss third in 2008).
But each of the three fillies to contest the Cox Plate since 1990 acquitted themselves well.
Slight Chance’s third in 1992 came in arguably the greatest field ever assembled for a horse race on Australian soil. Miss Finland was sixth in 2006 and Samantha Miss – who had a very similar profile to Guelph – rushed home for third in 2008.
I’ve no doubt if fillies in Guelph’s class are given the chance to run in the Cox Plate more often the hoodoo will end at some point in the next ten or 15 years. In fact, the hoodoo should already be dead.
In 2011, in perhaps the weakest ever running of the Cox Plate, three-year-old filly Atlantic Jewel was not given her chance at the championship.
Instead, she was kept at home in her Flemington stall as Pinker Pinker, Jimmy Choux and Rekindled Interest filled the placings.
The following weekend, AJ won the Wakeful (2000m, Group 2, three-year-old fillies) by nearly a furlong and injured herself in the process.
In the 23 months since the 2011 Cox Plate, Atlantic Jewel has only had six starts with injuries plaguing her bid for greatness. She is the favourite for the 2013 Cox Plate and this may be her only chance at the championship.
I believe, that save for Bernborough, every other champion middle-distance galloper since the first Cox Plate was run in 1922 has won the weight-for-age championship at least once.
The legacy of Atlantic Jewel will go on the line on October 26. In reality, her probable standing –a champion of racing – could have already been in safe keeping.
Guelph and Darley have the chance to show the way and rewrite history this month.
They can prove it possible for a filly to win the Cox Plate. They can have the words ‘Guelph’ and ‘champion’ penned in the same sentence.
I urge Darley and Peter Snowden to close their eyes and take a deep breath. It’s time to believe in Guelph.
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