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After romping through his opening three matches here at the Australian Open, one will have to think about the chances Rafael Nadal has of finally dethroning Novak Djokovic at Melbourne Park.
The Spaniard’s bid for a second Australian Open title, which would see him become the first man since Rod Laver to win each of the four Grand Slam titles at least twice, hit top gear courtesy of a 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 thrashing of French showman Gael Monfils in an otherwise entertaining match on Saturday night.
This follows a truncated first round match against Bernard Tomic, whereby the Australian was forced to retire after the first set due to a groin injury, and a second round win over Thanasi Kokkinakis in which the South Australian teenager showed glimpses of his potential.
But his devastating performance against Monfils will have his rivals, Novak Djokovic in particular, running scared as the Spaniard not only marches towards a 14th Grand Slam title (which would have him level on Pete Sampras), but also an extension of his lead at the top of the rankings.
Nadal, who missed last year’s Australian Open due to a knee injury and a subsequent stomach bug, is currently earning points at will while Djokovic cannot earn any fresh points as he is the defending champion.
Against Monfils, he saved all the break points he faced on his serve, through a number of excellent winners and Monfils errors and as such has yet to be broken this entire tournament.
But despite the lopsided scoreline, there were still many entertaining rallies and shots between the Spanish bull and the French entertainer, who for the fifth year running has fallen short of the round of 16, his best result which came in 2009.
And if you think that Nadal’s first genuine test will come in the next round against Kei Nishikori of Japan, you’re mistaken.
Nishikori, a quarter-finalist in 2012, has never beaten Nadal and on the two occasions that he has lost to him at Grand Slam level, the Spaniard has gone on to win the entire tournament.
This includes their most recent meeting at the 2013 French Open, and in the first round of Wimbledon in 2010. On both occasions, he defeated first-time Grand Slam finalists to win those titles (David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych respectively).
From there, Nadal should have no problems reaching the semi-finals, after his projected quarter-final opponent Juan Martin del Potro once again threw away another solid pre-Slam build-up by losing to Roberto Bautista-Agut in the second round.
That follows on from his second round exit at last year’s US Open, whereby he was unfortunate to have drawn a resurgent Lleyton Hewitt in the second round.
It’s also somewhat of a relief to Nadal, after the Argentine defeated him easily in their most recent meeting at the Shanghai Masters last October.
At the final four stage, Nadal is projected to meet one of Andy Murray, Roger Federer or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
His record against all three is a collective 15-5, the most lopsided of which is 8-2 against Federer. He is 6-2 against Murray and 1-1 against Tsonga.
If it’s Federer that Nadal eventually meets in the semi-finals, it will present the Spaniard a very good chance of extending his dominance over his Swiss rival, as the ten-year anniversary of that rivalry looms.
Of the eight wins that Nadal has enjoyed over Federer at Grand Slam level, two of them have come at the Australian Open, including the epic 2009 final which saw him become the first Spanish man to reign Down Under.
Another five have come at the French Open, while the other one was that memorable Wimbledon final in 2008 in which Nadal, on his third attempt, finally dethroned Roger Federer at the All England Club.
But if it’s Murray or Tsonga that he meets there, then he may have his work cut out.
Murray is trying to regain his best form having taken three months off following his failed US Open title defence, and apart from a sloppy loss to Florian Mayer in Doha, the Wimbledon champion is looking the goods as he tries to win the Australian Open after three championship match losses since 2010.
The Scot was broken in the very first game of his match against Feliciano Lopez but after breaking back immediately, Murray never faced any more break points and coasted to the fourth round for the sixth year running.
Tsonga, on the other hand, has also not lost a set as he tries to re-emulate his run to the 2008 final, which saw him knock off Murray and Nadal before losing to Novak Djokovic in the summit match.
He won an all-French battle against Gilles Simon, in the process earning the right to play Roger Federer in the fourth round in what is a rematch of last year’s quarter-final, which the great Swiss won in five sets.
Tsonga, though, won their most recent meeting in the quarter-finals the 2013 French Open in straight sets; that counts as one of four victories that he has enjoyed over Federer in thirteen career meetings.
And he couldn’t be playing any better than ever before; he entered the Australian Open having led France, in tandem with Alize Cornet (who exited the tournament with a straight sets loss to Maria Sharapova), to their maiden Hopman Cup title.
As far as Nadal is concerned, Tsonga’s aforementioned run to the final six years ago included a straight-sets dismantling of the Spaniard, who was contesting his first Grand Slam semi-final outside of Europe.
However, he lost their most recent meeting easily in Monte Carlo last year; the Frenchman was contesting his first clay court semi-final after struggling on the surface for many years.
Back to Nadal now, and with the form that he has displayed so far at the Australian Open, it appears that Novak Djokovic is the only threat to the Spaniard claiming a rare double Career Grand Slam.
Djokovic, for his part, is also romping through the bottom half of the draw, and like Nadal, has also won his opening three matches with minimal fuss.
He is not expected to be threatened until the quarter-finals, where he could face the man who almost knocked him out in the fourth round last year, Stanislas Wawrinka, while he may also have to deal with one of Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer, both former Grand Slam finalists (and victims to Nadal) in the semi-finals.
But given Djokovic’s dominant record against all three, whom he all defeated on the way to last year’s title, the Serb will have no excuse if he fails to reach the championship match for the fifth time (and fourth year in a row).
The last time he failed to reach the final was back in 2010, when he fell ill during his quarter-final loss to the man he conquered in the 2008 final, Tsonga.
Should Djokovic reach the final, it could (and should) be Nadal that he meets there.
It will mean a reprisal of the epic 2012 final, which Djokovic won over the course of five sets in six hours, in a match that did not finish until after 1:30am in the morning.
That counts as one of many epic showdowns that the pair have enjoyed since 2006, which includes a five-set French Open semi-final thriller last year in which Nadal won 9-7 in the final set, that preventing Djokovic from trying to achieve a Career Grand Slam.
But with the pair all but certain to be the top two seeds at Roland Garros this year, there will be no stopping either of them by anyone before the final, as Djokovic tries again to complete the set.
Here, it’ll be Nadal and Djokovic who is expected to contest the championship match and if they do, it’ll be another memorable one.
Djokovic has not lost at the Australian Open since 2010 but that record could come under threat from the man who has tormented him 22 times in 39 career meetings.
Of those 22 wins that Nadal has over Djokovic, none of them have come at the Australian Open, with their lone meeting anywhere south of the equator coming in the aforementioned 2012 final, won by the Serb.
So, after three rounds of the Australian Open, there appears to be no stopping Djokovic and Nadal. Can anyone else prevent a final between those two? Let the games begin.
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