Unless your name is Andre Greipel, opportunities for stage victories have so far been limited for the sprinters.
That fortunately changes today, with Stage Four of the Tour Down Under primed to conclude with a high octane bunch sprint in Victor Harbor.
The 148.5 kilometre journey from Unley to Victor Harbour will not be a cakewalk for the peloton, contrary to some of the flat stages often seen in the Tour de France. Featuring a scarcity of flat land, the peloton will be ascending and descending over a number of false flats and climbs for the majority of the stage.
Curiously, there is just one Category 2 King of the Mountain point to contest on Stage Four, despite the suitability of the ascent from Unley up to Stirling.
With Adam Hansen, of Lotto Belisol, currently embroiled in an exciting battle for the Ochre Jersey, the Queenslander could be at a disadvantage if challenged for his King of the Mountains jersey by a breakaway.
With a total of six bonus seconds, spread over two intermediate sprints, once again up for grabs there is always the possibility of a General Classification contender stealing a bonus second or two.
Ideally, BMC will want a three-man, or larger, breakaway to form before the 25 kilometre mark, however, competing agendas could see the breakaway experience trouble forming should any King of the Mountains contenders become involved.
The approach in to Victor Harbour features a small hill over three kilometres before the finishing line, however, in theory it shouldn’t pose much of an issue overall.
Of greater concern will be the two 90-degree turns and one roundabout found within roughly 600 metres of each other and just 800 metres from the finishing line.
The final kilometre of the stage could prove to be even more technical should forecasts of an evening south to southeasterly wind, 20 to 30 Km/H in strength, prove true.
With the peloton’s right flank dangerously exposed to crosswinds off the open ocean.
With just 600 metres, and a roundabout, remaining after the peloton take a 90-degree left-hand turn from Island Street on to Victor Harbor Esplanade, Stage Four’s sprint will come down to a combination of acceleration and positioning.
Anyone not to the fore of the peloton coming out of the corner may kiss their chances of victory goodbye, while anyone unable to quickly accelerate will need a substantial advantage to consider surviving to the line.
Having an experienced sprint train could be of critical importance in determining the stage’s eventual victor. While the gradual curving nature of the road means picking the right line could offer small marginal gains of mere milliseconds in the sprint.
With Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel in good form, and having won a similarly stage during the 2013 Tour de France against Mark Cavendish, the German must be considered the sprinter to beat. Similarly to Stage 12 of the Tour de France however, Kittel will need to be close to the front to ensure he has time to blast past his rivals.
Lotto Belisol will be the team to defeat when it comes time for the battle of the lead outs, and will almost certainly keep Andre Greipel to the front of the peloton.
However, the Belgian outfit seem to be suffering slightly from the absence of Gregory Henderson. With the Lotto Belisol train nailing the basics, but requiring some fine tuning to avoid Greipel beginning his sprint too early.
Australian and UniSA cyclist Caleb Ewan could be a dark horse for the stage victory if he can repeat his performance from the People’s Cycling Classic.
Should Ewan be able to freelance his way on to the correct backwheel, the Australian could easily compensate for the lack of a world class lead out. In a battle of acceleration, rather than pure top end speed, the youngster has a decent chance of usurping the likes of Kittel and Greipel.
If Cannondale could be guaranteed to provide Elia Viviani with a great lead out before the finishing line the Italian would easily be a favourite for Stage Four. Viviani has the potential to upset everyone in the bunch sprint, but his positioning needs to be almost perfect.
The ever erratic Roberto Ferrari could be one to keep a watchful eye on leading up to the bunch sprint. While Ferrari does not have the luxury of a world class lead out, the Italian can sometimes pick and choose the right wheels to position himself in a great position to pounce.
Orica-GreenEDGE’s intentions for Stage Four of the Tour Down Under may be a bit of a mystery.
Publicly, Matt White has stated that today’s stage is one for the sprinters, which could allow Matthew Goss or Michael Matthews a crack at a stage victory.
However, given how well Daryl Impey has led out Gerrans so far and the nature of the finish, I would fancy a cheeky dig at the bonus seconds on offer personally.
Other outside chances to snatch a surprise stage victory include: the Van Poppels or Fabio Felline of Trek Factory Racing, Steele Von Hoff of Garmin-Sharp, Jonathan Cantwell of Drapac Pro Cycling, Mark Renshaw or Julian Alaphilippe of Omega Pharma – Quick-Step, Graeme Brown of Team Belkin, Kevin Reza of Europcar and Juan Jose Lobato of Team Movistar.
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