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First run in 1986, the Australian Guineas is still a relatively new race on the Australian Calendar.
It has been won by some very decent gallopers including the likes of Zabeel, Mahogany, Mouawad, Triscay, Flying Spur, Reset, Apache Cat, Miss Finland and Shamus Award, but the vast majority of those (or other winners) didn’t do a great deal on the racetrack thereafter.
A few of those mentioned have gone on to be pretty successful in the breeding barn though, in particular Zabeel, who is one of the most successful sires Australasia has ever produced.
On the whole this is a race that has been won by horses successful at Group 1 level in the past, which is pretty significant given they are only three years of age before attempting this race.
Below are the last 12 winners of the race with relevant information – gender, barrier, jockey, last three starts (x denotes a spell), position at start/800m/400m, price (in that sequence).
• 2014 Shamus Award 3c (9) C. Williams 1×3 (2-2-2) $4.50
• 2013 Ferlax 3c (2) S. Baster x11 (3-3-3) $17
• 2012 Mosheen 3f (16) D. Nikolic x12 (12-11-7) $5
• 2011 Shamrocker 3f (7) G.Boss 2×4 (10-8-6) $31
• 2010 Rock Classic 3g (4) M. Rodd 121 (5-5-3) $17
• 2009 Heart of Dreams 3g (2) C. Newitt x43 (4-4-3) $3.75
• 2008 Light Fantastic 3g (7) C. Newitt 111 (3-3-3) $2.70
• 2007 Miss Finland 3f (6) C.Williams x41 (5-5-5) $2.50
• 2006 Apache Cat 3g (8) N. Callow x31 (1-1-1) $8
• 2005 Al Maher 3c (2) N. Callow 3×2 (3-3-3) $8
• 2004 Reset 3c (7) D. Nikolic 111 (4-4-2) $1.75
• 2003 Delago Brom (3) P. Payne 0x2 (7-8-7) $3.50
Pertinent statistics
1. 11/12 won or placed last start, and 12/12 finished in first four. Six were last-start winners.
2. 11/12 won at least one of their last three starts.
3. 11/12 started from barrier 1-9, with only Mosheen in 2012 bucking that trend. It was a very wet track that day though and from memory the only genuine wet track in this period.
4. 9/12 were in the first five runners in the early part of the race. Only one winner (Apache Cat) has managed to lead all the way, and no other horse has sat 1-2 in the run. Being placed third to fifth early has provided 8 of the last 12 winners. The only two winners to come from 10th or worse early were both mares that won or placed in the VRC Oaks the prior Spring.
5. 12/12 had their last start between 1400-1600m. 9/12 at 1400m.
6. 6/12 had finished in the first four placings in a Group 1 race sometime prior to starting this race.
7. 6/12 from Danehill sireline. One sired by Danehill and the others by one of his sons or grandsons.
8. The only three fillies to win during this period had won or placed in the VRC Oaks the previous Spring.
9. 7/12 started $5 or below, average price $8.72.
10. 10/12 had their prior run in Victoria, 9 of those at either Caulfield or Flemington.
In essence we are looking for an in-form horse, drawn barriers 1-9, that can take up a position just behind the pace early. Preferably run at 1400-1600m last start and finished close up in a Group 1 race the previous Spring.
An added bonus to be a son or daughter of Danehill, and to have started on a Victorian Metro race last start.
Main contenders
Rommel is a Perth visitor with the added advantage of having a recent a run here, which was a win at Caulfield last week.
His best win was at Group 2 level over this distance in Perth beating Disposition (injured prior to this race), who beat home Stratum Star last-start when runner up to Wandjina (conceding it 2.5kg). That suggests he is capable of winning this, and he will race near the leaders from a perfect barrier.
The only real negative is that he jumps 400m in distance, and that hasn’t been done in 12 years. Not sure how many have tried though, and you know he can run it out.
Sired by a son of Danehill, and his odds are likely to be somewhere near the average winning price. In fact his current price is over what it should be. Is that because he is from the west? Major hope!
Petrology was disappointing against the older horses at weight-for-age last start, but his devastating win in the Sandown Guineas over this distance in the Spring entitles him to serious consideration here. He thrashed Stratum Star in that race, and that is a good formline for this given the favourite, Kermadec, beat that horse by far less the only time they met.
Drawn well for the first time in four starts, and he did win at 1800m here last Spring from near the lead. Tactics could make or break his chances but taking advantage of the barrier early would be very sensible from a historical perspective. A very good chance if that transpires.
Admiral is a Tasmanian visitor who has the form figures and can race up on the pace from an ideal barrier here. He doesn’t have the Group 1 form, but only one of these horses does, and he did beat a Group 1 winner last start at WFA down there (The Cleaner).
I can’t quite have him at the top of the list historically, because he is travelling to Melbourne for the first time and doesn’t have Group 1 form, but times say he is a good horse, and so many Tassie horses with his strike rate perform well in Melbourne (Sydeston, Alfa, The Cleaner, Banca Mo etc).
Stratum Star has a lot going for him. Beautifully drawn, races on pace, comes off a placing at Flemington last start, and has Danehill bloodlines. The negatives are that he hasn’t won one of his last three starts and might not be up to Group 1 standard.
Maybe 1400m is his best distance too but I’ll not get into analysing form too much. He is a massive place chance at least, that is for certain.
Wandjina looks the ideal candidate but for his barrier, 10, which is just outside the ‘norm’. He will be right on the pace, won his last start and is the only Group 1 placed horse in the race.
Sired by a son of Danehill and his current price is just about the average price of winners in this race. Big winning chance but can he outright lead the field and win? Tactics might play a part.
Kermadec is the logical favourite and that alone entitles him to serious consideration, especially given he will start at less than $5. Yet to place in a Group 1 but he did win a Group 2 in Sydney last start, beating home the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas winner Shooting To Win – which no other horse in this race has done.
The negative for him might be his position in the run. He got back worse than midfield last start and that might be the temptation here. He did sit third and fourth in the run here when beating Stratum Star over this circuit in the Spring, in a 13-horse field from barrier 2. He has drawn barrier 8 this time, not quite so advantageous. Tactics could be the difference between a win and a loss for him.
Alpine Eagle is in-form, and very well fancied in the market, but is probably not the best rated horse for this historically. He comes back in distance 200m, and wasn’t able to race prominently enough at 1800m last start, to suggest he can win this, given the on-pace trend.
He will get his chance if he can sit handy from an ideal barrier, and he has the potential, despite this being a significant rise in class. An ace jockey from Hong Kong won’t hurt either.
Minnesinger is under the Godolphin banner and flying under the radar. He was just caught by Alpine Eagle last start, but in winning form before that. Like Alpine Eagle though his racing pattern does seem to settle back early, which isn’t great historically. His barrier however is great, and if he can take advantage of it, he is a winning chance. His mother, Serenade Rose, won a VRC Oaks here, and also won and placed at 1600m here in quality races.
I have left out the mares on the basis of class and/or barrier draws. None look to have the profile of previous female Guineas winners, but that isn’t to say that they have no chance.
Fontein Ruby (good barrier) and Sweet And Speedy (bad barrier) look the best of the fairer sex.
Conclusion
It’s never easy to ascertain the winner of a three-year-old race, and this one is no exception. Hopefully history plays its part, and gives us a helping hand. It’s a little tough to separate a few here but I have to base it on the factual evidence above.
1. Wandjina – has everything going for him except that slightly awkward barrier. No doubt he will go forward early though and is quite likely to negate it.
2. Rommel – Only the fact that he ran at 1200m and not 1400m last start prevents me putting him on top. Backing up off a win last-start, and Perth horses are so good at doing that, because it is done so often at home
3. Kermadec – Is more or less expected to win being half the price of any other runner, and that is a positive from a historical perspective. Also has the form on the board, is from a top stable and has drawn OK.
4. Petrology – Forget the last start and he just about has the ideal profile if positive tactics are employed early.
Very hard not to put Admiral in this first four – he is a great chance.
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