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The Autumn Carnival in Sydney heads to Rosehill for the next few weekends, starting this Saturday with Coolmore Classic Day.
The $600,000 Group l, run over 1500m for the fillies mares, looks set to be dominated by star filly First Seal. The support card looks to be very strong, with a Doncaster start assured for the winner of the $175,000 Group ll Ajax Stakes (1500m).
I’ll start my preview with the Coolmore Classic, due to go at 4.10pm AEST. It’s really hard seeing First Seal getting beat. That Surround Stakes (1400m) win of hers was just phenomenal, sitting out the back and wide, but just pounced on her rivals in two strides and won with ridiculous ease.
Looks well enough in at the weights, so she does look the winner in my view. But please people, go easy on the comparisons to Sunline. She is the third greatest mare this country has seen behind Black Caviar and Makybe Diva.
First Seal has a long, long, long way to go before she can be mentioned in the same breath.
Expecting a cheeky run from the Queensland mare Tinto, who really caught the eye behind Danesiri, storming home from near last to run sixth, beaten just over three lengths. Back slightly up in distance suits, fitter, and will definitely appreciate the bigger track.
The lack of early speed engaged here gives Thump an outside chance at odds. She was super in winning the Triscay Stakes (1200m) first up at Randwick, then went to the Liverpool City Cup (1300m) and was far from disgraced when sixth to It’s Somewhat, beaten just over two lengths.
It should get a very cheap lead, and with a dry Rosehill track, plus the rail in the true position, it will be no disadvantage to be on speed.
Selections
First Seal (4) looks a good thing, ahead of Tinto (3), Thump (6) and Mahara (9).
The Ajax is the last event on the program, set down for 5.30pm AEST.
I’m going to put Villiers Stakes (1600m) winner Rudy on top. His first up run in the Liverpool City Cup (1300m) was fantastic, coming from well back on the turn to be beaten just over a length by impressive Godolphin winner It’s Somewhat.
The key to this horse’s chances is the weather. He can handle all tracks, but he grows an extra leg when there is give in the ground. Great chance to win if it’s dry. Nearly close to a special if the track is soft or worse.
Pornichet resumed also in the Liverpool City Cup also, and he was just fair I thought considering he did have a really good run just off the speed. Trial form prior to that was just fair, but we saw how good he was in the Spring, so I am prepared to give him another go in a slightly easier race on a bigger track.
Destiny’s Kiss resumed with a closing fourth in the Southern Cross Stakes (1200m). He then went to the Liverpool City Cup and worked home strongly from last on the turn to finish seventh, beaten just over three lengths. Now he’s back to a bigger track and fitter should see him be right in the finish.
Selections
Pretty confident Rudy (3) can get the job done, over Pornichet (4), Destiny’s Kiss (2) and Burbero (8), who is rock hard fit and will relish the drop back in distance.
Golden Slipper starts go on the line in the two $175,000 Group 2 lead ups over 1200m, the Magic Night Stakes and Pago Pago Stakes. The Pago Pago gets underway at 1.35pm AEST and I’ll concentrate on it first.
Vanbrugh came out at Randwick at crazy odds of $15 and he showed a lovely turn of foot from the back to beat his rivals and beat them impressively. This isn’t a vintage Pago Pago, and with the Waller polish, as well as a glowing endorsement from Shinn post race, I am pretty confident this horse will go close.
Odyssey Moon stuck on really well in the Skyline behind Exopshere, grinding away near the inside, which wasn’t the place to be. That was his second run back from a break, and trainer Rod Northam has said that he has been set for only one race – the Golden Slipper, and given he probably needs to run 1-2 to get in the Slipper field, I’d expect him to be tuned right up for this, and we know the ability is there.
Intrusion is on debut for Gerald Ryan. He wasn’t knocked about in his latest trial at Randwick when running second to Vancouver, beaten just over three lengths. That horse should win the Slipper, so it does read pretty well, and the trainer is one of the best at producing youngsters, so I’ll be be very cautious with this bloke and they do with him market wise.
Selections
Vanbrugh (5) on top, ahead of Odyssey Moon (1), Intrusion (9) and Inner Circle (3). Leaving out Paceman because his trial behind Furnaces was terrible.
I’m keen on Speak Fondly to turn the tables on Always Allison in the Magic Night.
Speak Fondly did all the work on speed in the Sweet Embrace (1200m) at Warwick Farm and was left a sitting shot for Always Allison, who had a cheap run on the rail and swooped late to win. I think there is a stack more upside with Speak Fondly and I think she won’t just turn the tables, she’ll win and secure a Slipper start.
Mowgli worked home strongly in the Sweet Embrace when fourth. she got a fair way back in the run and only got warm very late in the piece. she will definitely improve on the bigger track and is the filly with the upside in this race, so I am tipping her to go close.
Carriages hasn’t raced since running a brave eighth in the Magic Millions to Le Chef after settling near a hot tempo. Recent trial form was encouraging, so she won’t be too far away from the gate and she does everything right, which is a definite advantage in these two-year-old races.
Selections
Pretty keen on Speak Fondly (6), to beat Mowgli (12), Carriages (2) and Always Allison (1).
In other races on the program:
. Himalayas Dream can bounce back in the first, but big watch on Fireball, who could blow them away if he is right based on his strong Hong Kong form
. Deep Field to do it easily in the Maurice McCarten
. Cross Of Gold could represent some value in a weak fifth race
. Hartnell to tighten up his Sydney Cup favourtism with a win in the Sky High
. Winx, aided by avoiding First Seal, to win the Pharlap
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