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It’s Super Saturday at Flemington, with two serious Group l events to be run and won.
Four of the best sprinters in the world – Lankan Rupee, Terravista, Chautauqua and Brazen Beau – will clash in the $1 million Newmarket Handicap (1200m), while a crack bunch of weight-for-age gallopers will do battle in the Australian Cup (2000m).
The track played beautifully last weekend, expect it to be much the same here.
Newmarket Handicap
The first leg of the quaddie gets underway at 3.50pm AEST.
It’ll be a shock if either Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee or Terravista don’t greet the judge first, and that’s the order I am going with.
Don’t worry about the small margin that Chautauqua had in reserve when winning the Rubiton Stakes (1100m) first up. He just got too far back and was caught in a nasty spot, but the genius of Dwayne Dunn got him home.
He is near unbeatable down the straight, and it took a Hugh Bowman gem on Terravista to bring about his demise last year in the Darley Classic (1200m). He gets the weight pull on Terravista now, and has the fitness edge, plus a sharp jump out win last week.
I wasn’t sold as to whether Lankan Rupee was back, but I was a believer after the stunning turn of foot he showed to win the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m). He was on the back of a horse who was having his first go at Group l level and at WFA. Different kettle of fish here with him giving weight to class animals, so he will need to be every bit as good as he is, but it will be no shock if he blows them away.
Terravista has been just so so at the trials, in particular the first one behind I’m All The Talk. The second trial was better, but he was ridden out to win the trial. In terms of the big three here, I’d say he has come back the least impressive, but he has the runs on the board from the Spring, the weight pull on Lankan Rupee and is unbeaten in four runs fresh.
Selections
Chautauqua clearly on top, ahead of Lankan Rupee, Terravista and Brazen Beau, who comes seriously into consideration thanks to the weights and the Joao Moreira factor, with the bloke winning on anything he rides at the moment.
Australian Cup
It’s been a few years since we have seen a horse as consistent at the Flemington 2000m as Happy Trails. No matter what the race, what gate or what odds, he just loves it. Turnbull Stakes and Mackinnon Stakes winner over the track/distance in recent times, and his last start effort in the Peter Young Stakes (1800m) was a beautiful tune up for this. Clearly the horse to beat.
It might not be the Melbourne Cup, but gee it’d be great to see Red Cadeaux get a big win at Flemington. He is being aimed towards the Championships, so I am sure whatever he does here he will improve on, but come race day at Flemington he always finds his best. He will get back, but he will be storming home late.
The ‘Lion Of Longford’, The Cleaner, went at his usual strong tempo in front first up on Launceston Cup Day in the George Adams Stakes (1600m) but couldn’t quite hold off crack local three-year-old Admiral, who ran a beauty last week in the Guineas, so don’t worry about it being Tassie form. This horse will roll along in front, go for home 700m out and look to break their hearts. Can he hold on to win? Not sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Selections
Happy Trails (3) on top, to beat Red Cadeaux (1), The Cleaner (7) and Protectionist (2).
I’ll look at two other Group 2 events, both carrying $200,000 prize money.
The Blamey Stakes (1600m) are set down for 2.30pm AEST. There is great value here in Guest Of Honour. I didn’t mind his jump-out win here, and I didn’t mind the way he ran in the Futurity Stakes (1400m) when fifth to Suavito. He got held up between the 350m-250m, and that probably cost him a margin to some extent, but not a placing. He will be better suited at Flemington, Dunn takes over, has drawn well, up to 1600m suits and he was a Stakes winner second-up two preps back.
Suavito was given a peach ride to win the Futurity, getting on the back of Smokin’ Joey in the three wide line and having the last shot at that runner. Suavito also lost a plate in the run, so that adds merit to her win. Trained here, flies second up, as well as at the track, and this race carries less depth than the Futurity.
Nothing really went right for Sertorius during the Spring, and it was summed up in the Geelong Cup (2400m) where he did a power of work in the run and folded up late. We know how good he is, and he did run a great race in this event 12 months ago. If he is forward enough, he can be a danger.
Selections
Guest Of Honour (7) at value, ahead of Suavito (5), Sertorius (2) and Smokin’ Joey (1).
A crack bunch of fillies have been assembled for the Kewney Stakes (1400m), due to get underway 40 minutes after the Blamey.
There is a great each-way bet here in Sea Spray. She was backed at odds to win the Typhoon Tracy Stakes (1200m) at the Valley, and she was just completely luckless, with the combination of a negative ride. Finished second last, beaten five lengths, but she nearly should have fought the finish out. Jump out win at Sandown prior to that was very sharp, and hopefully on a bigger track she can get better luck and be in the finish.
Sabatini just gets better and better as the bar gets raised higher and higher. In saying that, a couple of pearlers from Nick Hall have helped, especially last time out in the Angus Armanasco (1400m) when sitting off the speed, peeling on the turn and letting down powerfully to win comfortably. Should get back with cover and get the drag into the straight, which is her perfect situation.
There was plenty of merit in the performance of Bottle Of Smoke in the Angus Armanasco. Despite being trained on the track, she looked completely lost around it, which probably cost her victory. She was very good over the last 100m, so the bigger track looks ideal for her, and Craig Newitt rides, and he has been in fabulous form in Singapore.
Selections
Sea Spray (5) on top, to beat home Sabatini (2), Bottle Of Smoke (11) and Wawail (4).
In other races on the card:
. Pasadena Girl looks a safe way to go in the first
. I’m really keen on Nostradamus in the MSS Security
. Sampeah on a bigger track should take beating in the Sires’ Produce
. Bonaria to go back-to-back in the Schweppervescence Trophy
. If he has handled the flight over from New Zealand, Natuzzi is the best bet of the day across Australia in the last.
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