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Another time honoured race on the Australian racing calendar the Group 2 Perth Cup is race 9 at Ascot in Perth today, set to be run at 5.05pm AEDT.
It lost its 3200m status back in 2008 which unfortunately hasn’t done anything much to raise the standard of the race, or our prospects of nurturing genuine two mile horses.
That said we have one class act heading the market in the shape of four year old mare Delicacy. She has the very rare distinction of being a duel Derby and Oaks winner, and achieved that feat earlier this year taking out all four classic races in West and South Australia.
Gun jockey William Pike has really thrown a spanner in the works though by jumping off her, instead opting to ride the stablemate under the same Bob Peters ownership, Neverland. That seems a little bit odd given a dominant last start win in the Cox Stakes, but he has cited the 5kg weight difference between the two as his reasoning, stating that there isn’t that much between the two mares. He may well be right, but it doesn’t ensure this is a two horse race.
Below are the last seven winners of the Perth Cup, with relevant stats, since the race became a 2400m event. The last figure in brackets is the weight drop out of the winners prior start.
2015 – Real Love 4M W.Pike (4) 54kg 1st WA St. Leger (-2kg) $2.40
2014 – Black Tycoon 8G D.Oliver (5) 55.5kg 2.5L 4th Cox Stakes (-3.5kg) $5
2013 – Talent Show 6M Jarrad Noske (1) 53.5kg 3L 4th Cox Stakes (-3.5kg) $31
2012 – Western Jewel 5M K.Yuill (1) 52kg 1st (2L) ATA Stakes (-5kg) $7
2011 – Guest Wing 4G B.Parnham (8) 52kg 0.3L 2nd ATA Stakes (-2kg) $21
2010 – Lords Ransom 6G A.Kennedy (2) 55.5kg 1st (1.8L) Cox Stakes (-3.5kg) $3
2009 – Guyno 5G J.Whiting (12) 54kg 6L 7th Cox Stakes (-5kg) $9
Some pertinent facts:
1. All seven dropped 2kg or more from prior start and five dropped more than 3.5kg.
2. No horse has carried more than 55.5kg to win.
3. Five of seven drew barriers 1-5; six drew barriers 1-8.
4. Three were sired by Jeune and five sired by a British born horse.
5. Only one horse beaten more than three lengths at its prior start, and two horses beaten three lengths or more, both ran in WFA Cox Stakes at prior start.
6. Four winners have come out of WFA Cox Stakes (2100m), two from ATA Handicap (2200m) and one from Western Australia St. Leger (not run this year).
7. Five of seven have been five years of age or older.
8. Average winning price $11.20.
Using the above statistics I think we can also offer hopes to the following runners, all of which are double figure prices.
#4 Ask Me Nicely is at the vintage age of nine but has run the odd good race at weight for age level which gives him a sneaky hope here.
He was only three lengths off Delicacy last start but meets her a whopping 8kg better for it. That is more than enough to reverse the deficit, though it should be stated he was more suited by a pedestrian speed in the Cox Stakes than Delicacy who was further back in the field. He has drawn ideally here and has been totally shunned in the betting market at $41.
#5 Bedamijo deserves a mention as she comes into the race in career-best form, has drawn well, and will be making her own luck right on the pace.
If she isn’t under siege from the likes of Kirov Boy mid race she could repeat the dose from last start, but an extra 200m, and a better class field probably make this a much harder task. $11 is decent value for her though.
#6 Dark Musket has a weight for age placing to his credit this preparation in the Kingston Town Stakes prior to his failure behind Delicacy in the CB Cox Stakes. He had no luck in the straight that day though and maybe should have finished a little closer to the winner.
He meets Delicacy on 7kg better weight terms for a 5.25 length defeat that day which might be enough to turn the tables. But he has to overcome a wide barrier to do so. If not for that I would rate him a very big winning chance here, but perhaps his $31 price is ample compensation. He is way over the odds.
#10 Kirov Boy ran second in this race last year to Real Love and meets her 3kg better for a 2.5 length defeat.
He was beaten 7 lengths by Delicacy in the Cox Stakes, but is another to meet her 8kg better off at the weights. He couldn’t get off the rail in that race to make his normal mid-race charge for the lead so perhaps his run is best forgiven in that race.
His previous run when second with a big weight was a vast improvement on his other form this preparation so hope springs eternal he can perform well in this race if things go right.
A wide barrier doesn’t suggest he can win this but it is probably better for him than being locked away on the rail throughout as was the case last start.
He is weighted to beat nearly all of his opposition on 54kg if he can produce his best form, and he should strip fitter off his last run which was twenty-nine days between runs, far too big a break for a horse who needs hard racing.
#12 Properantes went into the ATA Stakes with a definite hope of toppling Neverland at the weights, but he drew wide and just got too far back off the pace in a leader-dominated race. Those coming down the outside in the straight also seemed to be disadvantaged that day so perhaps his 3.5 length defeat can be forgiven.
He has drawn a lot better this time and the fact he is $19 and Neverland $3.80 makes little sense. Although he hasn’t beaten that mare in three attempts, there hasn’t been much between them on any of those occasions. And he has conceded weight to her twice, and covered more ground in their respective meetings at least twice.
Only a 1kg weight drop for him, but we should expect a big run taking his strike rate into account.
#13 Respondent is also under the ownership of Bob Peters, but unlike last year is now in the Adam Durrant stable.
He was actually my preference for the 2015 race for similar reasons, but he failed quite badly with blinkers applied first time, and he also lost a race plate during the race which might not have helped his cause.
This year he has had a lighter preparation, and it’s very hard to see anything out of his last race (ATA Stakes) beating him home in this race given he meets them all 4kg better. And he was up 800m in distance that day, so lacking in fitness.
He passes most of the clauses above, and is one of only four horses in the race that have won at the distance. He was beaten a little more than three lengths last start, but the big drop in weight should compensate for that, and a good barrier should ensure he gets an economical run in the race. He is good value at $12.
It’s hard to know for sure whether Delicacy can concede 5kg to the majority of this field. I don’t think there is any doubt she is 3-4 kg superior to the next best horse, but 5kg makes things very interesting. The inside barrier probably ensures she won’t have to cover too much ground in the run, but it might also be a hindrance as she normally gets back in her races.
The market indicates Neverland is the danger, but there doesn’t seem to be any value in backing her at a current price of less than $4.
My feeling is that Respondent and Kirov Boy are the best weighted horses outside of that pairing, can be backed Each Way, and should at least be thrown in Trifectas and multiples with the two favourites. Any of the abovementioned are capable of an upset though for the reasons outlined.
My top three, with admittedly not a lot of confidence, is:
1. Respondent
2. Delicacy
3. Kirov Boy
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