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After the opening day sprint, the Tour Down Under riders face their first difficult challenge, with the 132 kilometres of Stage 2 to Stirling.
This course has become a focal point of the race over the past few years, with the hilly terrain around Stirling offering up some fabulous racing.
The stage starts on the outskirts of Adelaide in the town of Unley and the riders are faced with a difficult start to the stage, with the first ten kilometres being uphill at an average gradient of four percent.
The break, therefore, will be well sought after, as the sole King of the Mountain’s point of the stage arrives after only 14 kilometres in the town of Carey Gully. The riders then head south until they hit the first of five circuits around Stirling.
Also on the course are two intermediate sprints, at 27 and 49 kilometres covered, which could be another chance for general classification contenders to take time, especially if the break is not already up the road.
One of the reasons I love this stage is its unpredictable nature, and the fact that much like the National Championship course around Buninyong, there are many potential ways the stage can be won.
The past two years have seen this race won in a bunch sprint. In 2014 Italian puncher Diego Ulissi took the stage, while last year it was Spanish sprinter Juan Jose Lobato who took the spoils. However in 2012, Will Clarke won solo from a long break.
A late breakaway is also an option, but there will need to be a good number of riders trying their luck. Year in, year out we see groups of two or three attempting a break in the final five kilometres, but always get pulled back within the final two kilometres.
What will it be this year then? I am thinking another group sprint.
Simon Gerrans has never won this stage, but has been on the podium on two occasions (third in 2012 and second in 2014). The stage suits him perfectly, and with the hilly finale and a well suited team for this terrain he has to be the number one favourite.
However, after a poor performance at the National Championships a week ago, there will be some doubts about whether he can pull off the win. Daryl Impey, Michael Albasini and Luke Durbridge will provide solid assistance for him to achieve the stage win.
The next two riders are previous winners of the stage, as mentioned above. Diego Ulissi has had a torrid time of things over the past few years, after being given a doping violation after testing positive at the 2014 Giro d’Italia.
He had a solid return season last year, with a stage win at the Giro, and top-ten performances at the Tour of Slovenia and the Tour of Poland in the back half of the season.
Back in 2014, when Ulissi won into Stirling, he ended up finshing third behind Gerrans and Cadel Evans in general classification. With bonus seconds up for grabs during, and at the finale to the stage, this will be another important day in his bid to win the race overall.
While the two riders mentioned above are general classification contenders, Juan Jose Lobato comes to the race purely for stage wins. He showed in last year’s corresponding stage that this terrain suits him perfectly.
If he is to get a stage win this week, it will be on this stage, as he prefers the lumpier terrain to that of Stage 4 and the final stage around Adelaide.
Coming from Spain, Lobato should have no trouble with the heat, but as it is early in the season, who knows what his form is like. If you are placing a bet on the stage and looking at somebody who offers good value, Lobato for mine is your man.
Other riders to look out for include Rohan Dennis (BMC), Simon Geschke (Giant), Geraint Thomas (Sky), Simon Clarke (Cannondale), Kiel Reijnen (Trek), Enrico Battaglin (Team Lotto NL-Jumbo) and Nathan Haas (Dimension Data).
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