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St Kilda were something of a bottom-end feel good story in 2015. Widely tipped for the wooden spoon, they played some attractive football and won more games than expected.
That included the most remarkable victory of the AFL season, coming from 55 points down against the Western Bulldogs in Round 6.
Are they legitimately on the rise already, or did they over-achieve slightly last year? Apart from the Lazarus-like performance against the Dogs, their wins were against the real stragglers of the competition.
That’s OK, though, because for a lower ranked side to climb, the first step is beating those around them.
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With double-up games against Essendon, Carlton and Melbourne this year, the Saints have been given a fixture that has their fans pencilling in some wins with quiet confidence. Let’s have a look at their best side.
| B: | Jimmy Webster | Hugh Goddard | Sean Dempster | |
| HB: | Shane Savage | Sam Fisher | Dylan Roberton | |
| C: | Leigh Montagna | Jack Steven | Jack Newnes | |
| HF: | Jack Billings | Nick Riewoldt | Jack Sinclair | |
| F: | Jack Lonie | Paddy McCartin | Josh Bruce | |
| Foll: | Billy Longer | David Armitage | Seb Ross | |
| Int: | Tom Hickey | Maverick Weller | Luke Dunstan | Blake Acres |
| Emerg: | Jarryn Geary | Daniel McKenzie | Jade Gresham |
Starting at the back, we see two old stalwarts from the grand final years, Sam Fisher and Sean Dempster, who will be relied upon to hold things together and direct traffic with years of experience in the bank.
But can Fisher’s body be relied upon to play more than 12-15 games? The times he misses through injury will be where the loss of Jake Carlisle is most keenly felt.
Hugh Goddard is at the other end of the spectrum of course, and the more games he can play on the competition’s good forwards the better he’ll be in the long run. Jimmy Webster has developed well after four years on the list, but he must become more attacking.
Two key players for the Saints are going to be Dylan Roberton and Shane Savage, whose AFL grounding were at Fremantle and Hawthorn respectively. Roberton had a big 2015 as an intercept and rebounding defender, while Savage is the running playmaker.
As 80-90 games players, they carry a lot of responsibility within this side. They both need to take ownership of this back six, and Savage in particular could afford to play with some more arrogance.
St Kilda’s midfield is honest, but is still lacking in overall class.
Last season, David Armitage had a career year racking up huge numbers, Jack Steven won his second best-and-fairest but can let himself down with his kicking and decision making, and Leigh Montagna returned to his hard-running best after a poor 2014.
Will Luke Dunstan continue his progression as an inside tough nut with good goal sense? Or is it a case of what you see is what you get? Seb Ross looks ready to take the next step and could end the year a part of the Saints’ most important on-ball quartet. Saints fans will be hoping Jack Newnes gets the ball in his hands more often after his best season yet.
What can the likes of Blake Acres (ten games), Daniel McKenzie (seven games) and Nathan Freeman (ex-Collingwood, yet to debut) do when they get their chance? All are highly rated, but are yet to put together any stretches of meaningful football. If St Kilda’s depth starts to get tested, which it will, and these sort of guys can step up, it’s huge for the club in the medium and long term.
Billy Longer has taken over the number one ruck mantle, but pressure will continue to be applied from Tom Hickey. They played eight games together last year, and the Saints went in with two specialist ruckmen in half their matches. Will the absence of the sub rule and limited rotations help or hinder a two-ruckman team? Longer and Hickey will get their chance to work in tandem early in the season.
Nick Riewoldt will start the season as still the best player in the Saints’ forward half, but I’m sure he’s hoping others to pass him through the course of the year. Jack Billings is the closest to doing so despite only 25 matches to his name. Dripping with quality, you only have to go back to that Round 6 win over the Bulldogs to see what he’s capable of already.
There are St Kilda fans out there that think Billings might be their best player since Riewoldt himself.
Ex-Giant Josh Bruce was the surprise packet of 2015 across the competition, kicking 50 goals in his second year at the Saints after making his name as a defender in the previous three seasons. Top ten for both goals and contested marks last year, if he can improve on that, with his athletic gifts and innate competitiveness, he could be a genuine star.
Paddy McCartin didn’t exactly burst onto the AFL scene, kept to six games in his debut year after being taken at number one in the 2014 draft as the best tall prospect. It’s imperative that he and Bruce play together all season as the key focal points in the forward half, learning each other’s game and working in tandem. St Kilda are building for 2018 and beyond, and these two are a critical part of that.
Jack Sinclair, having bulked up over pre-season, and Jack Lonie, a defensive pressure standout, were two more young players to impress for the Saints in 2015, both in their first year, finishing third and fourth in the goal-kicking at the club. It’s easy to see why supporters are optimistic for the future with these kinds of players coming through.
On top of all the players mentioned above, you’ve got the likes of Mav Weller (good foot soldier and leader), Jarryn Geary (gives everything but can’t kick), Sam Gilbert (can run and mark, but a shank specialist), Luke Delaney (limited) and Tim Membrey (good VFL player) that provide a measure of experience and depth. An improving side needs to make tough calls, which might see the likes of Geary under pressure for his spot.
Alan Richardson has provided a stability that wasn’t around St Kilda under Scott Watters. Everything about him exudes calmness and control, which comes with the best part of two decades experience in the coaching game at a variety of levels, roles and clubs.
Time is on Richardson’s side as he continues to build this team. Progress for lower sides isn’t always linear in ladder terms, and the Saints might go back a spot or two this season. But fans can be confident they’re on the right track.
Predicted ladder spread: 12th-16th
Predicted finish: 15th
Best and fairest: Jack Steven
Leading goalkicker: Josh Bruce
All-Australian potential: Jack Billings
Rising Star candidates: Hugh Goddard, Paddy McCartin, Jade Gresham