This Sunday will see the 51st edition of the first of the Ardennes Classics, the Amstel Gold Race.
Although the race is not geographically situated in the Ardennes region, and its ascents are neither as long nor as high as the true Ardennes climbs, the race is widely considered to mark the opening of the Ardennes Week.
The event, which is the Netherlands’ largest one-day race, signals the start of the hillier classics. It is suited to classics riders who are able to excel on punchy climbs and shorter steep hills, exemplified by none other than the Cauberg, which the riders must climb four times this year.
This weekend’s 248.7 kilometre-long race remains largely unchanged from last year’s route, commencing in Maastricht and finishing in Valkenburg, the city which played host to the World Championships in 2012.
The first ascent of the Cauberg lies 54 kilometres into the race. The first few ascents of the famed climb are not likely to present too many difficulties, however, with each repeated ascent the collective fatigue of the preceding climbs will no doubt set in.
In contrast to the rest of the Netherlands, the southern province of Limburg, where the race takes place, can be quite hilly in nature. This year’s route features over four kilometres of climbing spread out over 34 ascents, one of them being the Keutenberg, the steepest hill in the Netherlands, with an average gradient of 22 per cent.
However, with a collective gradient of approximately only five per cent, none of the race’s other climbs can be said to be particularly difficult in and of themselves. It is rather the quick and relentless succession in which they come that creates the most challenges for the riders.
And with the progression of the race, the hills only come quicker and faster, which provides less respite and recovery time between climbs, and thins out the peloton with each ascent.
The parcours is also characterised by several complex twists and turns, with race organisers attempting to weave the route through both the farm tracks and urban roads of southern Limburg, so as to take in as many climbs as possible.
This generally makes for extremely nervous and often dangerous racing. Due to the narrow roads and densely populated areas through which the race runs, the route is also usually lined with several parked cars, which has in previous editions of the race reduced visibility and created a dangerous battle for positioning among teams at the head of the peloton.
This issue will be complicated again this year by the high number of difficult-to-navigate chicanes, bollards and traffic furniture on the roads, which will likely make crashes a common occurrence during the race.
After navigating this tricky course, the riders will reach the fourth and final ascent of the Cauberg within the final few kilometres. This is undoubtedly the most decisive point in the race. The climb is 1.3 kilometres in length, with an average gradient of 5per cent, however, in some sections it ramps up to around 12per cent.
It’s a hill that lends itself to attacks from the puncheurs who are able to sustain high intensity efforts uphill for shorter periods of time. Teams will no doubt be jostling for position to put their protected riders into a good position at the base of the climb, but contenders need to ensure they don’t launch any attacks too soon, or they risk being reeled back in.
In 2013, the finish line was moved 1.8 kilometres away from the top of the Cauberg to its current location, which created a relatively flat finishing straight. It is a move that changed the dynamic and produced a race that provides opportunities not only for the puncheurs, but also for riders who are able to get over the Cauberg and quickly recover to fight out the finish in a sprint from a reduced bunch.
The latter scenario was demonstrated last year by Michał Kwiatkowski, who was able to catch Philippe Gilbert, Michael Matthews and Alejandro Valverde after the Cauberg by taking advantage of the descent and flat run-in to the finish, and eventually cross the line first in Valkenburg from a small select group.
A further scenario that race organisers had in mind when amending the finishing location was the possibility of earlier attacks. So the peloton will be aware that riders could also try to make a move from further out and fend off any chasers up the Cauberg and into the final flat kilometres.
This was demonstrated in 2013 by Roman Kreuziger, who won the race by attacking the peloton 17 kilometres from the finish. However, it is most likely that any attacks will be neutralised by the teams of the favourites before the ascent of the Cauberg.
Given that the finish line is now preceded by a relatively flat stretch of road, in all of these scenarios, the wind could also be a further important factor. In the final section, an attacker will be hoping for a tailwind, while any fast finishers’ chances of a bunch reaching the line will be bolstered by a headwind.
Given the numerous ways that the race could pan out, let’s have a look at some of the pre-race favourites.
After recently being given the all-clear after fracturing his left-hand middle finger, BMC’s Philippe Gilbert will take to the start line this Sunday in Maastricht.
He is the most successful rider at Amstel Gold in recent years, having won the 2010, 2011 and 2014 editions of the race, which is the second-highest number of wins of all time.
Gilbert took out the 2012 World Championships in Valkenburg, which also featured the Cauberg ascent, and has stated that this is in fact his favourite climb anywhere in the world to race.
If his tactics during the 2014 and 2015 editions of Amstel Gold are anything to go by, we can expect an on-form Gilbert to attack on the Cauberg and attempt to create a sufficient gap to hold off any chasers until the finish. However, with the Belgian being forced to sit out the Brabantse Pijl just this week, the extent of the effect of his injuries on his current form is still yet to be seen.
Also a former Road World Champion, Team Sky’s Michał Kwiatkowski, is in good form after winning E3 Harelbeke this March, and returns as the defending champion in 2016. Last year he became the first reigning World Champion to win the race since Bernard Hilault in 1981.
Kwiatkowski’s attacking style could give him the chance to get away on the climb, but he might also be able to replicate his win last year from a reduced bunch sprint. He comes to the race with the support of riders such as Wout Poels as well as Sergio Henao, who finished on the podium at the Vuelta al País Vasco earlier this month.
Australian Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEDGE is also in contention again this year. Having made a fairly late debut this season, as he did last year, Matthews has already taken out the prologue and stage two of Paris-Nice, as well as the Vuelta Ciclista a La Rioja.
After the disappointment of missing the podium at Brabantse Pijl this week, the Australian will be looking to put in a solid performance this Sunday, as he did last year, when he showed good form on the Cauberg.
If they are able to work together well as joint leaders, Matthews’ teammate Simon Gerrans could also be in with a good chance. He’s very familiar with the race, having previously finished third three times. Orica-GreenEDGE sports director Matt White is full of confidence, having recently commented that his team’s line-up for this year’s Ardennes Classics is among the best they have had in years.
And finally, after his remarkable performance at Brabantse Pijl this week, Czech champion Petr Vakoc is also worth a mention, as well as his Etixx – Quick-Step teammate Julian Alaphilippe, who showed good form at Brabantse Pijl to assist Vakoc’s victory. He was arguably the revelation of last year’s Ardennes Classics, finishing seventh at Amstel Gold and second at both La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne–Liège.
Other riders to watch out for include Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin of Lotto-Soudal, Fabio Felline of Trek-Segafredo, and Edvald Boasson Hagen of Dimension Data.
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