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Stage 16 starts a difficult final week of racing for the peloton, but especially the general classification contenders.
Today’s 133 kilometre trek from Bressanone to the hill top finish in Andalo features 4500 metres of climbing, and will definitely test the leading contenders in the race for the Maglia Rosa.
The stage starts with a long 45 kilometre descent to the foot of the first climb of the day, the second category climb of the Passo della Mendola. Before that, the first intermediate sprint is completed at the 38 kilometre mark.
The climb of the Mendola averages out at 6.5 per cent for 14.5 kilometres, and will be summitted just before the half way mark, after 65.2 kilometres of racing.
I believe that there will not be a breakaway off the front until midway up the climb.
Expect King of the Mountains leader Damiano Cuengo to be off the front looking for more points in that competition to gain himself a buffer before the difficult climbing on Stage 19 and 20 where he may struggle.
It is then a descent which flows into a long valley road all the way in to the second and final intermediate sprint point at Cles (92.5 kilometres), and then into the base of the second category climb of the Fai della Paganella.
The climb start inside the final 20 kilometres, and will be the biggest difficult for the riders on the stage today.
The climb is at 10.5 kilometres, with the first eight kilometres being at a solid eight per cent., with the final 2.5 kilometres lowering in gradient to five per cent. However, the final few hundred metres have ramps of up to 15 per cent, and with the climb cresting at 11 kilometres to go, could lead to a few attacks.
The King of the Mountains point does not mean the climb finishes, with a further rise in the road of around four per cent for a kilometre, taking the stage to the ten kilometre to go point, before a fast flowing descent.
The descent finishes at 7.1 kilometres to go, where the road rises for the final climb of the day, the third category climb to Andalo, which is crested inside the final kilometre.
The first 1.7 kilometres of the climb are false flat, at an average gradient of two per cent. The gradient then changes to an average gradient of 6.2 per cent for the next two kilometres, before the final two kilometres of the climb, (three kilometres of the stage) are flat.
It is a difficult stage, with a few difficult climbs, but it is the length of the stage that could be the real issue. With only 133 kilometres of racing, the stage will be over very quick, with many attacks.
This could be more difficult of a stage than it looks on paper.
I don’t expect any changes in the general classification fight, and also think the break will take the stage.
It is an important day once again for the men fighting for the King of the Mountains jersey, while Giacomo Nizzolo and his team Trek-Segafredo will be looking to keep the peloton together until the first intermediate sprint so Nizzolo can take more points to add to his points classification lead.
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