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If you followed my Melbourne Cup tips, hopefully your pockets are the equivalent of Lloyd Williams’.
That will be discussed in depth after the Carnival. But Thursday is Oaks Day, and to be fair, I don’t much interest in the first half of the card so I’ll concentrate on the quaddie legs, which are races six through to nine.
Race Six: L’Oreal Paris Stakes 1400m
Really keen to see how Clearly Innocent goes here. He just seems like a Flemington horse and there was plenty to like about his last start effort at Caulfield and gets McEvoy steering.
Obvious threat is Takedown, who was ridden poorly last time out and should have won. Maps well here, hard fit and in ripping form.
Federal is also hard fit and comes back from the Crystal Mile, a race which has turned out to be strong as a form reference. Terrified of Amovatio ambushing late if they go hard in front.
Going with Clearly Innocent, ahead of Takedown, Federal and Amovatio.
Race Seven: Mumm Stakes 1000m
I think the best of the day is in the last, but next best is Terravista. Joe Pride wouldn’t have bothered running if he wasn’t right. Trial was very good and considering his record, he is so well in at the weights.
Hellbent is the unknown. If he is right, he’ll give this a shake, but after that Caulfield mishap, who knows. Market will be the best guide.
Flamberge and Golden Spin look the next best. But it really is all about the first two horses mentioned.
Keen on Terravista, to beat Hellbent, Flamberge and Golden Spin.
Race Eight: Crown Oaks 2500m
No Tiamo Grace, so I see no threats to Yankee Rose. Cox Plate run, under the circumstances, was outstanding. Last two fillies to run in the Cox Plate ended up bolting home in the Oaks. Yankee Rose should be doing that.
Obvious threat is Harlow Gold. Comes through the Vase where not much went right and that form held up big time in the Derby. Did so in the Oaks last year.
Sebring Dream is the pick of the Wakeful runners and that race has been very from an Oaks perspective. Not dropping off Moqueen. She’ll eat up 2500m and is a knockout chance at odds.
Yankee Rose a moral, over Harlow Gold, Sebring Dream and Moqueen.
Race Nine: Crown Resorts Plate 1100m
The good thing of Cup Week is Spright. Form around her maiden win has been outstanding with more than five wins coming out of it, and she produced a stunning turn of foot to win the Brian Crowley. Own age/sex here, draws the right part of the track, and if she gets a clear run, her turn of foot will put this field away.
Conchita was given a 12/10 steer to win on Manikato night and stable rarely leave Cup Week without success.
Showpero had no luck behind Conchita and can turn the tables with luck, while Rosa Carolina is in an in form stable and also draws well.
But for me it’s all Spright, to beat Conchita, Showpero and Rosa Carolina.
Don’t forget to check twitter @AdamPage1991 for more tips right across the weekend.
Good luck and happy punting!
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