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Round 7 feels like a somewhat straighforward round of footy to tip, which if you’ve got any experience in this caper you should know is a massive red flag. Welcome to week’s AFL expert tips.
It took GWS more than five years to get their first Friday night fixture but it’s only taken another week for them to get their second – travelling to Melbourne to face St Kilda at Etihad Stadium.
With Toby Greene out the Giants do seem a little more vulnerable than they might have been at other times this year, but one would still expect their depth of talent to win out over the Saints.
North Melbourne versus Adelaide will be a game of such mighty devastation for the visitors as to leave grown men crying, or at least, it certainly will for me. Crows by plenty.
Carlton are a realistic chance of knocking off Collingwood when you consider that they have a relatively strong defense going up against a very much below average forwardline.
However, the star power in Collingwood’s midfield should create enough opportunites for the Pies that, even if they don’t convert well, they should still get over the line by sheer weight of numbers.
Port Adelaide versus West Coast might be a really intriguing game if played in Perth rather than Adelaide. As it’s in Adelaide, the Power are easy to tip.
Will Geelong ‘rest’ Patrick Dangerfield? Does it make a difference against Gold Coast if so? Can the Suns shut down Joel Selwood like Levi Greenwood did last week? Will Gary Ablett get on the plane home with the Cats or wait another five months?
Tipping Geelong of course, but if they’re arrogant enough to rest a Brownlow medallist they might wind up regretting it.
Highly tempted to pick the Tigers over the Bulldogs just to be a contrarian (as the rest of the panel is with the Dogs), and I do believe they’re a genuine chance of winning this game.
Unfortunately, I just don’t have the faith that they can pull off their best form after their confidence took a hit – no, 76 hits – last week. That said, if they prove me wrong, I will be buying plenty of stock in them.
If Sydney can’t beat Brisbane at home then they should immediately become wooden spoon favourites. I’d be tempted to give the Lions a chance if it wasn’t for Dayne Beams’ untimely injury.
Melbourne, if they can play with the confidence they deserve to, should make mince meat of Hawthorn. And they have done that most weeks this year so I am tipping them to do it again. Jordan Lewis 35+ touches, two goals.
I’ll go Essendon to beat Fremantle in something of an upset to close out the round. Joe Daniher to kick five and give Griffin Logue a cuddle.
Lock of the week? I hate to say it but it has to be Adelaide over my Roos. Fingers crossed Taylor Garner takes another hanger so we have something other than the scoreboard to talk about. Of course, I got it wrong with the Cats last week so fingers crossed I do again.
Maddy Friend
GWS, Adelaide, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Bulldogs, Sydney, Melbourne, Fremantle
St Kilda hasn’t won a Friday night game since 2011, losing their last 11 matches, and I can’t see that changing this weekend.
I think North Melbourne will put up a better fight than most think, but Adelaide will get the job done – their forward line should have too much firepower for North’s defence.
Carlton will be buoyed by last weekend’s win over Sydney, but after a much-improved showing against Geelong last week, I’m backing the Pies to get up on their 125th anniversary.
Port is in ripping form, and West Coast have done nothing to shed their ‘flat track bullies’ tag. Geelong should take care of Gold Coast in the ‘Gary Ablett grudge match’.
The Bulldogs versus Richmond shapes as the match of the round. The Tigers are playing well, but the Bulldogs showed last weekend against GWS that they’re back to their contested best, and I’d expect them to win. The absence of suspended Richmond ruckman Toby Nankervis could be a huge advantage for the Dogs.
I’m backing Sydney to break its losing streak against Brisbane, although if the Lions bring their best form it could be a tight contest.
Melbourne should be too strong for Hawthorn – Jordan Lewis will be particularly keen to perform well against the club he won four premierships with.
Fremantle should beat Essendon, purely because the match is in Perth.
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Cameron Rose
GWS, Adelaide, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Bulldogs, Sydney, Melbourne, Fremantle
The most interesting clashes are often between a rising home team against an established power that is on the road, and we’re presented with exactly that in an intriguing Friday night game between St Kilda and GWS.
The Giants’ injury (and suspension) list only gets longer, while the Saints have the shortest in the league with only one established player not available for selection. Sticking with GWS, but giving the Saints every chance.
Adelaide will trounce North, and Port will beat West Coast. Collingwood can handle Carlton if they bring their intensity and ball movement from last week, but the Blues can be effective at shutting teams down. Sticking with the Pies.
If there’s going to be a big upset this round, it may well be Gold Coast over Geelong, especially if they get Steven May and Rory Thompson back. Home ground advantage can help the Suns, and the Cats looked slow against Collingwood. I’m not brave enough to tip Gold Coast here, but am not expecting smooth sailing for the visitors.
The Dogs are deserved favourites over Richmond, and should be too good.
On Sunday, Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle look fairly straight-forward picks, although you wouldn’t put a dollar on the Swans as favourites after last week.
Demons by 8-10 goals if they bring the right heat against the Hawks. The Dockers at home should win, but the Bombers are a good upset chance if they can produce some of their quicker, skillful football.
| Round 7 | Josh Elliott | Maddy Friend | Tim Lane | Cam Rose | The Crowd |
| STK vs GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| NM vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| COL vs CAR | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| PA vs WCE | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| GCS vs GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| WB vs RIC | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| SYD vs BRI | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| MEL vs HAW | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| FRE vs ESS | ESS | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| Last week | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Total | 34 | 32 | 34 | 34 | 37 |