The US Tennis Open is the last tennis major of the year and, at least on the men’s side, it appears to be a real war of attrition with a number of highly ranked players not making it to the starting line.
That should make it easier to pick a winner, right?
On the men’s side, I think it will come down to one of four: Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Alexander Zverev and Nick Kyrgios, if he gets on a roll. In the women’s tournament, I think we can narrow it down to Karolina Pliskova, Garbine Muguruza plus the Americans, Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens.
Roger Federer and Andy Murray come to Flushing Meadows under injury clouds, but if they get through the opening rounds unscathed, it’s not hard to see them reaching the end. Federer has won two of the three majors this year and, at his best, would be favourite to add a third. Before his recent back complaint, he made the final of the Rogers Cup in Canada, losing to Alexander Zverev.
Andy Murray has been absent from the tour with a hip injury since Wimbledon. He is someone who typically produces his best on the back of plenty of match practice so this puts him at risk of an early exit. In Murray’s favour though is that his half of the draw is notably lighter than the other side.
Potentially, Thanasi Kokkinakis is Murray’s biggest early threat in a potential third round meeting, however Kokkinakis is still in the process of working his way back on to the tour.
Alexander Zverev is a serious threat. Before a second round upset loss in Cincinnati, he was coming off tournament victories in Washington and Montreal. The world no six is in Murray’s half of the draw and will be playing well into the second week.
And, finally, Nick Kyrgios. By reports, Kyrgios is still battling a hip complaint but, if he is physically and mentally on point, he will be someone that no-one wants to play. The potential fourth round match up with Federer is one to hope for.
You will have noticed that Rafa Nadal didn’t make the list. His form in lead up tournaments have been patchy, losing to Kyrgios in the quarters at Cincinnati. However, it’s his draw which is the major concern. He has a potential match up with Grigor Dimitrov, the Cincinnati winner, in the quarters before Federer in the semis and Murray or Zverev in the decider. Tough!
(AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
In the women’s draw, I believe it comes down to Garbine Muguruza or Karolina Pliskova. Muguruza deserves to be the favourite. After making the quarters in Toronto, she won in Cincinnati, beating Simona Halep 6-1 6-0 in the final.
Her US open history is a concern, having never before won past the second round. However, her breakthrough win on grass and her recent hard court form suggests she is on track here.
Karolina Pliskova is due. The World no 1 is searching for her first Grand Slam title and with recent hardcourt results being good but not outstanding, you get the feeling she is building nicely into the US Open. She made the final in 2016 and could go one better this year.
Outside of those two, I think Madison Keys or Sloane Stephens could surprise. Madison Keys will win a tennis major. The only question is when? She has had a good lead in to the US Open with a win in Stanford and a third set tie break defeat to Muguruza in Cincinnati. She benefits from a favourable draw and the home crowd may provide a further lift.
As an outsider, I expect the world no 84, Sloane Stephens to have a great US Open. She made the semi-finals at both Toronto and Cincinnati, taking some big scalps in the process, Angelique Kerber being one of them.
So there we have it. Hopefully we have a winner tucked away in there. Either way, it promises to be a great fortnight at Flushing Meadows.
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