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Race 6 at Rosehill Gardens in Sydney on Saturday (3.45pm AEST) is the 1400m Group 1 Golden Rose Stakes for three-year-olds. The race was initially known as the Peter Pan Stakes and was first staged in 1992.
Between that year and 2002 it was run at varying distances of 1350-1550 metres. It didn’t attain its current name until 2003, and didn’t achieve its Group 1 status until 2009.
Below are the the 12 winners since the renaming in 2003 with some pertinent historical factors.
2014 Hallowed Crown
2013 Zoustar
2012 Epaulette
2011 Manawanui
2010 Toorak Toff
2009 Denman
2008 Duporth
2007 Forensics
2006 Court Command
2005 Paratroopers
2004 Doonan
2003 In Top Swing
1. Ten out of 12 won (7) or placed (3) in their last start. Biggest beaten margin at prior start is three lengths, which was In Top Swing back in 2003. Eleven winners finished in the top four at their last start.
2. Eleven from 12 winners have been a colt or gelding. Bearing in mind though that fillies would always be vastly outnumbered in this event.
3. Ten winners dropped in weight by at least one kilogram, while the other two carried 1.5 kilograms more than last start.
4. Nine from 12 have started at $6.50 odds or better. The last favourite to win was Denman in 2009.
5. The last five winners have been second up in their preparation, with seven out of 12 in total.
6. Five of last eight winners came from 10th or worse at turn to win.
7. Darley (now Godolphin) trained four of the 12 winners.
8. Hugh Bowman is the only rider to win the race more than once, and in fact has captured four of the last 12. (Though he doesn’t have a ride this year.)
9. The sire Commands (by Danehill), has won the race three times with his offspring but no other sire has won it more than once.
10. Barriers have been of little consequence with five of 12 winning from eight or worse.
This year we have only a nine-horse field which is quite a disappointing turnout, well below the average number we normally see in this race. Whether a small field is going to suit those that get back to last is problematical, and the barrier draw might also be more important than in recent years.
The smaller field may also make it a slightly easier assignment for a favourite to be victorious.
Summation
Ideally we are looking for a horse that won or placed last start, preferably second up in their preparation, and dropping in weight. Generous each way odds would be nice and in the stable of Godolphin and by the sire Commands would be handy. Given Hugh Bowman doesn’t have a ride in the race this year we could see another jockey win for the first time.
Quite a few horses come into the reckoning but I’d be settling on the Godolphin trio of Exosphere, Shards and Holler as closest to the ideal candidates. All come into the race second up, and none of the jockeys aboard have won the race.
From a value perspective I’d be leaning to the pairing of Shards and Holler although both do rise half a kilo in weight.
Holler is a son of Commands though so he gets the historical kudos. The analytical mind might tell you he is poorly weighted, and might struggle at the distance, but this is a three-year-old race (horses so open to improvement), and a couple of his siblings have won at 1400 metres and beyond.
Betting advice
If you want to base your betting on historical precedents I’d be suggesting an each way bet on Holler at double figure odds, a saver bet on Shards at a similar price, and a small trifecta interest on the Godolphin (John O’Shea) trio above.
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