After three seasons of New Zealand dominance, to many rugby commentators the rest of the world’s chances of victory in this year’s world cup equate directly to the ability of each country to defeat the All Blacks.
There are some teams who can genuinely claim that on a good day and with a lucky bounce here and there they can defeat the New Zealanders and thus justify their hopes for world cup glory. Wales are not one of these teams but just how far can the boyos go?
The Welsh campaign is built around their crucial pool match with Australia. If they win this game they face a quarter final match against the runners up from Pool A, most likely to be England or, with the wave of the rugby fairy’s wand, Samoa. If they lose to the Wallabies they face a quarter final match against the winners from Pool A, most likely to be South Africa.
Wales have little chance of beating the Springboks but this Welsh team has and can beat the English. In the last round of this year’s Six Nations tournament, Wales defeated England 27 – 18 turning around the previous year’s embarrassing 47 – 13 thumping.
Beat England in the quarter final and Wales will find themselves in the semi finals; a stage that even the proudest of Welsh fans would admit it would be a great achievement for this team to get to. From here it would take nothing less than a major upset for the Welsh to find themselves any deeper in the competition however when it comes to world cups, major upsets do happen. Just ask the Welsh.
Samoa have twice taken down Wales in world cup pool stages – in 1999 and earlier in 1991 when the Samoans denied the Welsh a place in the quarter finals. With so much then riding on whom they meet in the quarter finals, the Welsh would be wise not to look too far ahead of the Australian match.
Despite some major improvements in the forward pack since the disastrous northern tour of 2005, the All Blacks showed in the last game of the Tri Nations that while some of the Wallabies forward problems have been addressed, few have been solved. John Connolly announced Matt Dunning’s ‘coming of age’ after the opening game of the tournament however if there is such a thing as an ‘un-coming of age’ Dunning underwent it as he and his scrum were repeatedly driven through by Messrs Hayman, Woodcock and co. in the wet of Eden Park.
It was with a superior scrum and a well executed kicking game that the All Blacks took the Wallabies main threats out of the game and denied them the opportunity to play attacking rugby. How do Wales stack up in these two areas?
The Welsh scrum, whether it is propped by the two Jones hair-bears, Duncan and Adam, or the appropriately named Chris Horseman, maintains more than just a psychological dominance over the Australians. In their 23 – 20 loss to Italy in this year’s Six Nations, the Welsh pack stood their ground against the proud Italian forwards, something that even the strong packs of England and Ireland struggled at times to do.
Much of the outcome of this game relies upon Wales not just beating the green and gold front five but doing so convincingly. The inclusion of both Dunning and Al Baxter, the failed props from the 2005 tour, will give heart to the Welsh but they may struggle to deliver the same dominance they did two years ago.
As for the superb kicking game utilised by Dan Carter, the Welsh five-eighths, Stephen Jones and James Hook, have both shown a preference for keeping the ball in hand. This is especially so for the probable captain, Jones whilst he was under the guidance of the former Wales coach, Scott Johnson. That is not to say that the Welsh don’t have a strong kicking game however the shocker that Chris Latham collected to score a miracle try at Millennium Stadium last year does spring to mind. Nonetheless whoever gets the number 10 jersey, be it Jones or Hook, will have to show great discipline to ignore their team’s desire to return to Wales’ running-rugby glory days.
Perhaps it is however in a return to the running game that Wales will find their greatest chance of success. With backs such as Dwayne Peel, Jones, Hook, Gareth Thomas, Gavin Henson and Shane Williams and ball playing forwards like Colin Charvis, Alix Popham and Martyn Williams, Wales have the players to make this a reality. The highly praised style of play that swept the Welsh to the 2005 six nations grand slam brought out the best in the team and swelled the hearts of a nation who’ve waited a long time for Welsh running rugby’s second coming.
[pic via Welsh Rugby Pics]
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