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Geoff Ogilvy is one of several Australians looming as a realistic threat to win the US PGA Championship starting on Thursday.
In the absence of Tiger Woods, who is recovering from major knee surgery, the year’s final major has turned into a lottery, with American Phil Mickelson the only player inside a 20/1 chance at Oakland Hills.
Don’t think for a minute that the players aren’t aware this will probably be their last chance for many years to steal a major without having to worrying about Woods, not that they will admit to it.
Woods has won 14 of the 46 majors he has contested as a professional, a strike rate of just over 30 per cent.
“He wins less than he loses,” Ogilvy said.
“You’d have to say it’s harder to win when he’s in the field than when he’s not in the field but I don’t see this as any greater opportunity than last year’s PGA.”
Oakland Hills is defined by severely sloping greens, which means the course complexion is likely to change every day, depending on the pin positions.
“If the pins are on top of all these hills it could be borderline impossible to shoot anywhere near par but if you have pins down the bottom of the slopes and the tees up it will be a bit more playable,” said Ogilvy, who warns that his poor form last week in Akron should be discounted, because he has never played well there.
Mickelson took a similar line to Ogilvy.
“This is an interesting course to attack, because the birdie holes change each day based on the pin placements,” he said.
Of the 14 Australians in the field, at least half have reason to genuine reason to fancy their chances, including Ogilvy, Adam Scott, Stuart Appleby, Peter Lonard, Robert Allenby, Rod Pampling, Aaron Baddeley and Nick O’Hern.
Scott, who was ill last week, worked on the range today with coach Butch Harmon and is too talented to write off, while Appleby received a big confidence boost after closing fast in Akron on Sunday, where he finished only one stroke off the pace.
Lonard also played well in Akron, while Allenby has been impressive in the past two majors and finally seems to be getting the hang of the big ones after years of frustration.
“You have to be patient (in majors) and I’m definitely more patient,” said Allenby, whose approach these days, if not quite Zen like, at least is less fiery than in the past, when he would stew over a bad shot or a bad break for several holes.
“I’m just accepting what happens. It’s frustrating when you hit bad shots or miss putts but it lasts with me for 25 seconds and it’s done.
“By time I get to the next shot it’s no longer with me and I think that’s why I’ve played better this year.
“Sometimes you can want something too much and put a lot of pressure on yourself and that’s what I’ve done in the past.”
Picking a name at random (although not one of the 20 club pros) is probably as good a method as any of finding a winner.
Mickelson and fellow American Kenny Perry, Fiji’s Vijay Singh, Englishman Lee Westwood and Irishman Padraig Harrington loom as five of the obvious favourites, but each has a chink in his armour, unlike last year’s winner, who is not back to defend.
Factbox on the leading Australians at the US PGA Championship being held at Oakland Hills, Michigan.
GEOFF OGILVY
Odds: 33/1
World ranking: 7
Best PGA finish: Tied 6th, 2005 and 2007
Major titles: 1
Why he can win: Plays better in big tournaments
Why he can’t win: Past two tournaments mediocreADAM SCOTT
Odds: 28/1
World ranking: 8
Best PGA finish: Tied 3rd, 2006
Major titles: 0
Why he can win: Too good not to win a major sooner or later
Why he can’t win: Preparation interrupted by illness last weekAARON BADDELEY
Odds: 100/1
World ranking: 25
Best PGA: Tied 55th, 2006
Major titles: 0
Why he can win: Magnificent putter
Why he can’t win: Misses too many fairwaysROBERT ALLENBY
Odds: 50/1
World ranking: 29
Best PGA finish: Tied 9th, 2004
Major titles: 0
Why he can win: Coming off tie for seventh at British Open
Why he can’t win: Suspect short gameSTUART APPLEBY
Odds: 50/1
World ranking: 30
Best PGA finish: Tied 4th, 2000
Major titles: 0
Why he can win: In fine form after finishing equal second last Sunday
Why he can’t win: Confidence suspect after third round meltdown at US OpenROD PAMPLING
Odds: 150/1
World ranking: 46
Best PGA finish: Tied 14th, 2003
Major titles: 0
Why he can win: Has found putting touch recently
Why he can’t win: Long game has gone slightly southSTEVE ELKINGTON
Odds: 250/1
World ranking: 127
Best PGA finish: 1st, 1995
Major titles: 1
Why he can win: Has done it before
Why he can’t win: It’s been 13 years