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Preview of this weekend’s National Rugby League round 22 games (times AEST).
FRIDAY
MANLY SEA EAGLES v MELBOURNE STORM at Brookvale Oval, 7.35pm
Head to head: Storm 7, Sea Eagles 5
Last match: Storm 26 bt Sea Eagles 4 at Olympic Park (Rd 5, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Sea Eagles $2.25, Storm $1.60
Footy TAB: Sea Eagles +3.5
Manly are riding high on top of the ladder and are favourites to walk away with their first minor premiership since the competition was split in two in 1997. Yet for all they’ve done over the opening 21 rounds, what they do tomorrow night could well determine how serious a premiership challenger they really are. Another loss to Melbourne would make it three straight against the Storm, which could leave them with some serious mental scars should the two, as expected, meet again on grand final day. The Storm seem to be gathering pace nicely and a win by 18 or more here will see them overtake Manly at the head of the ladder.
Key: With Jamie Lyon and Jason King definite non-starters and Anthony Watmough unlikely, do the Sea Eagles have enough strike power to tame a full-strength Storm?
Tip: Storm
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS v WESTS TIGERS at WIN Stadium, 7.35pm
Head to head: Dragons 8, Tigers 8
Last match: Tigers 24 bt Dragons 16 at SFS (Rd 1, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Dragons $1.70, Tigers $2.10
Footy TAB: Tigers +4.5
Injuries have struck the Dragons at the most importune of time, with impact backrower Ben Creagh joining the starting front row of Jason Ryles and Justin Poore in the casualty ward. It could see a change in gameplan for the red and whites, who will likely chance their arm by getting the ball out to Mark Gasnier, Matt Cooper and co often and early. Against a Tigers side which loves to do the same, it could make for an attractive contest. The Tigers have a few injury concerns over forwards Todd Payten and Bryce Gibbs, but as long as Robbie Farah overcomes an ankle injury, they’ll be right in the contest.
Key: Pressure. The last time the Tigers went into a must-win they succumbed to the Panthers, while the Dragons will be desperate to put memories of last week’s second-half capitulation to bed.
Tip: Dragons
SATURDAY
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS v BRISBANE BRONCOS at Mt Smart Stadium, 5.30pm
Head to head: Broncos 14, Warriors 8
Last match: Warriors 24 bt Broncos 14 at Mt Smart Stadium (Rd 2, 2007)
TAB Sportsbet: Warriors $2.10, Broncos $1.70
Footy TAB: Warriors +2.5
The Broncos flexed a bit of muscle in beating Canberra last weekend to prove this year’s competition is anything but a two-horse race. At full-strength, there’s no doubting Brisbane’s credentials, but it’s getting all the horses on the paddock which has been their biggest problem in 2008. It will be the case again over in Auckland with Test centre Justin Hodges suspended for two matches and representative prop Sam Thaiday dropped for disciplinary reasons. This is a big one for the Warriors, as evidenced by fullback Wade McKinnon’s recall to the top grade without having played a game since March after undergoing a knee reconstruction.
Key: Overcoming the dreaded trip. The Warriors have won six out of nine at Mt Smart Stadium this season and five of their last seven there against the Broncos.
Tip: Broncos
CRONULLA SHARKS v SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS at Toyota Stadium, 7.30pm
Head to head: Sharks 24, Rabbitohs 9, drawn 1
Last match: Sharks 12 bt Rabbitohs 10 at ANZ Stadium (Rd 5, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Sharks $1.36, Rabbitohs $3.00
Footy TAB: Souths +8.5
This one looks almost certain to be low-scoring with the sides having two of the three worst attacking records in the NRL. Despite their obvious lack of attacking flair, a win would see the Sharks go equal top of the ladder on points if the Storm beat Manly, while the Bunnies’ very faint hopes of making the eight would all but disappear with a loss. Both sides come off grinding wins, the Sharks’ one-point, come-from-behind triumph over the Dragons proof you can’t write this outfit off when they’re down. The two sides’ respective positions on the table should be a fair indication of who will come away with the spoils.
Key: The past six Sharks-Souths clashes have been decided by 10 points or less, so it could come down to a matter of who can keep their head in the late stages.
Tip: Sharks
BULLDOGS v NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS at Suncorp Stadium, 7.30pm
Head to head: Bulldogs 15, Cowboys 8
Last match: Cowboys 20 bt Bulldogs 18 at Dairy Farmers Stadium (Qualifying final, 2007)
TAB Sportsbet: Bulldogs $2.35, Cowboys $1.55
Footy TAB: Bulldogs +4.5
If Manly v Melbourne is the biggest game of the season, Bulldogs v Cowboys could possibly the smallest. In the wake of Sonny-gate, the Bulldogs have gone from bad to worse and the Cowboys continue to be just terrible, losing 13 on the trot. There is, however, one thing riding on this bottom of the table encounter – the wooden spoon. The Bulldogs have a four-point buffer over their northern rivals but there’s still five rounds to go and it appears highly unlikely Steve Folkes’ side will trouble too many in the run-in to the finals. The Cowboys could have superstar half Johnathan Thurston back from injury within weeks, which could change their fortunes. Moving the match to Suncorp could play into the Cowboys’ hands a little.
Key: It might simply be a matter of who wants it more.
Tip: Bulldogs
SUNDAY
CANBERRA RAIDERS v PENRITH PANTHERS at Canberra Stadium, 2pm
Head to head: Raiders 26, Panthers 25, drawn 1
Last match: Raiders 20 bt Panthers 16 at CUA Stadium (Rd 2, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Raiders $1.57, Panthers $2.30
Footy TAB: Panthers +4.5
An intriguing game, with plenty at stake for both top-eight aspirants. The Raiders have had to endure a turbulent week with the sacking of star halfback Todd Carney, while the Panthers should be boosted by the return of dangerous back-rower Frank Pritchard. Both sides come off heavy losses and will look to get their campaigns back on track quick smart. A loss could be crippling. Neither side is afraid to throw the ball around so it promises to be a spectacle as well. The Raiders hold the wood over Penrith in recent times, winning six of their last seven meetings and were 20-16 winners at CUA Stadium in round two this year.
Key: The venue. Canberra are playing well at home and the Panthers haven’t won in the capital for four years.
Tip: Raiders
SYDNEY ROOSTERS v PARRAMATTA EELS at Sydney Football Stadium, 3pm
Head to head: Eels 58, Roosters 55, drawn 5
Last match: Roosters 32 bt Eels 12 at Parramatta Stadium (Rd 10, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Roosters $1.18, Eels $4.50
Footy TAB: Eels +14.5
It’s pretty hard to look past the Roosters here. Brad Fittler’s side are trotting along nicely and it seems highly unlikely they’ll slip-up against a Parramatta side which has won just one of its last five – the latest a 32-12 thumping at the hands of the Knights. The fact that a severely-depleted Roosters outfit hammered the Eels by that same score, 32-12, in round 10, despite missing the core of their all-star pack, also favours the Chooks. A loss for the Eels would almost certainly mark the end of their season. Fullback Luke Burt misses out with a rib injury, with Jarryd Hayne moving to No.1.
Key: Focus. It seems the only way the Roosters could come undone is through complacency.
Tip: Roosters
MONDAY
GOLD COAST TITANS v NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS at Skilled Park, 7pm
Head to head: Titans 1, Knights 1
Last match: Knights 34 bt Titans 12 at EnergyAustralia Stadium (Rd 8, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Titans 2.65, Knights $1.45
Footy TAB: Titans +4.5
It’s no secret the Titans are defensively frail. Since holding the Origin-ravaged Storm to nil two months ago, John Cartwright’s side have conceded an average 34 points a game and have lost six out of seven along the way. If they don’t tighten up, the Knights could run riot. Newcastle are building momentum following big wins over the Rabbits and the Eels but Skilled Park is never an easy place to visit. The Knights have a tricky run home, including premiers Melbourne at EnergyAustralia and Brisbane at Suncorp, and will view this match as must-win. The Titans may remain in the hunt for the eight but most pundits have already written them off due to major injury concerns.
Key: Defence. The Titans have to plug those gaping holes.
Tip: Knights
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