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Heavyweights Melbourne and Manly are in a battle royale for the NRL minor premiership, but history suggests the honour may well prove more a poisoned chalice than psychological reward.
Only four minor premiers in a decade of the NRL have gone on to achieve grand final glory – and just three in the nine years since the McIntyre playoff system was introduced in 1999.
In addition to the $100,000 cash bonus, the JJ Giltinan Shield, a home final and potentially a week off during the finals series, comes the burden of expectation for the minor premiers.
The pressure has proven too much for Cronulla in 1999, Parramatta in 2001 and 2005, the New Zealand Warriors in 2002, the Sydney Roosters in 2004 and Melbourne two years ago.
Brisbane in 1998 and 2000, Penrith in 2003 and the Storm last season are the only sides to have completed the minor premiership-premiership double.
And so much for the apparent advantage of a top-two finish after the 26 rounds of the minor premiership: only four times in 10 years have the leading two teams throughout the regular season kicked on to contest the grand final.
Historically, the one major reward for the NRL minor premiers has been a clash with the eighth-placed finalist in the opening week of the playoffs.
The minor premiers have never lost a qualifying final and invariably meet a team which has limped into the playoffs, often having lost more games than it has won during the regular season.
Eight out of the last 10 minor premiers have also at least made the grand final, with the Sharks in `99 and the Eels’ class of `05 the only two not to have featured in the title decider.
The second-placed team, on the other hand, has lost to the seventh-placed team in the finals on four occasions.
Parramatta upset the Roosters in 2000, St George Illawarra downed the Bulldogs in 2001 and then Newcastle in 2002, while North Queensland famously upstaged the Bulldogs in 2004.
Heading into the final round of the 2008 competition, it seems certain that either reigning premiers Melbourne or Manly, last year’s losing grand finalists, will clinch the minor premiership.
The Sea Eagles, who visit Penrith on Saturday night, top the table with a plus-eight points differential advantage over the Storm, who host South Sydney on Sunday.
Cronulla are equal on competition points with Manly and Melbourne, but need a home victory over the Cowboys on Saturday night and then the Eagles and Storm to both lose in order to snatch the minor premiership.
Minor premiers and their eventual finish since inaugural NRL competition in 1998
*1998: Brisbane – won grand final
**1999: Cronulla – lost preliminary final
2000: Brisbane – won grand final
2001: Parramatta – lost grand final
***2002: New Zealand Warriors – lost grand final
2003: Penrith – won grand final
2004: Sydney Roosters – lost grand final
2005: Parramatta – lost preliminary final
2006: Melbourne – lost grand final
2007: Melbourne – won grand final
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