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The match between Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs at MCG pits the two sides who have stood on Geelong’s coattails for the whole year. The stakes couldn’t be any higher – a week off as well as a place in the Preliminary Final awaits the winner while the loser suffers the ignominy of crossing over to the same side of the draw as Geelong, assuming the Cats defeat St Kilda.
For a while now these two sides knew they would be facing up in the first week of the finals.
The phony war is over and everything is to play for in this match.
Both sides have been rebuilding for a while and this is their chance to show they have made the next step. The Hawks haven’t made the final four since 2001 while 1998 is the last time the Dogs were there. For many of the players in both sides, this could be their last chance at a premiership. None more so than Shane Crawford who is an inclusion for the Hawks.
The statistics send out mixed messages.
The two have only played each other seven times at the MCG with the Hawks holding a slight 4-3 advantage but the Dogs have won the last two and three of the last four there. Favouring Hawthorn is the fact that the Bulldogs have never beaten them in a final in three attempts although the last of these was way back in 1985.
The Hawks have had a magnificent season starting it off with nine straight wins and only have lost more than one game in a row once and that was to Geelong.
The form of the Dogs heading into the finals isn’t as stellar as their rest of the year. They have won only two of their last seven and those two came against a struggling Sydney and out of sorts Essendon.
Hawthorn tend to come home with a wet sail and have won 17 of their final quarters this year.
Hawks fans still have a soft spot for the Dogs as it was the defeat of them which gave them their first flag in 1961 but that won’t mean anything come Friday night when the two lock horns.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 14
Adelaide vs. Collingwood at AAMI
The Crows were edged out of fourth spot and the double chance by 0.82% but a home final against Collingwood is more than enough consolation.
The two used to share somewhat of a rivalry but they has somewhat been dissipated by the appearance of Port Adelaide to which the Magpies have a more natural source of conflict.
The two have met just once in the finals before; at the MCG in the 2002 Preliminary Final. The Crows have won 9 of 12 at AAMI Park this year but Collingwood has a 6-6 record there and won finals in the past.
Collingwood has had an up and down season and been beset by off-field dramas. Their best part of the season was a spurt of four win in a row against St Kilda, Geelong, West Coast and Melbourne. Since then they have been consistently hot and cold.
The Pies like to blitz from the start – their second quarters in particular have been a forte with them winning 20 of 22. But if they don’t come out firing they are in trouble.
They only have three wins from 12 when trailing at quarter time and haven’t won a match this season when trailing at three-quarter time. Interestingly enough the Crows have an identical 0-7 record when trailing heading into final term.
The Crows looked to have lost the plot when they headed into the break with two losses and then added another three when they came back. They regrouped and bounced back winning five of their last six.
The side has been there or thereabouts in recent times without ever making that leap. They been in the preliminary final three of the last six years and lost all of them. In recent years, all bar the 2003 Grand Final, Collingwood has played their best football in September.
If they can go all the way this year, it will be the Ewing Theory at its best.
Prediction: Collingwood by 10 points.
Sydney vs. North Melbourne at ANZ
It’s somewhat surprising that these two are only meeting for the second time in a final but then again their periods of ascendancy have never really coincided.
This match promises to be antagonistic and feisty in a winner-takes-all contest. For a while North tried to claim part of Sydney for themselves which didn’t see any love lost between the two.
That was a while back and things have simmered between the two but the Swans had too many men on the field earlier in the year against North which created some sparks. Kangaroos coach Dean Laidley tried to get a war of wars going after he raised some concerns about ‘tunneling’ but not even that could get the unflappable to Paul Roos flap.
After Round 14, the Kangaroos were in 10th spot and not looking capable of doing much but then reeled off six straight wins. They then looked to have fourth spot for the taking but lost their final two matches to ultimately end up in seventh.
The Swans held that fourth spot for much of the year before losing six of their last nine. Their biggest concern would be their infamous slow starts. They have only won three of 11 games this year when trailing at half time compared to not losing once when leading going into the long break.
The Swans tend to play in low-scoring, war of attrition-type arm wrestles but that isn’t always their doing. It is the Kangaroos’ first match at ANZ Stadium and this one should be close and ugly.
Prediction: Sydney by 4 points.
Geelong vs. St Kilda at MCG
Should St Kilda ever bother turning up? They fell into fourth place by default and now face an absolute red-hot Geelong side.
A Cats side who this season has eight 60-plus point wins and has hit triple figures 18 times.
The Saints hovered around 7th-9th for most of the year before winning eight of their final 10 to nip the double chance. Only twice before (1997 and 2002) in the 16 team competition has a side taken fourth spot with as few as 13 wins. Geelong has eight more wins than the Saints.
The last time two sides met in the finals with an eight game differential was in 1995 when a rampant Carlton took on eighth placed Brisbane.
These two have only met twice before in the finals with the Cats victorious in both. The last of those was in 1991.
In the early part of the decade, both of these sides were labeled as the team of the future but only Geelong fulfilled their potential. Despite their plethora of top draft picks the Saints only have two preliminary finals to show.
Ironically, playing Geelong not could be the best thing for the Saints as it means the only other way they could meet again is in the Grand Final.
Prediction: Geelong by 48 points.
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