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Cats by plenty, Hawks by a whisker

Roar Guru
18th September, 2008
4

Here’s your guide to picking the winners from this weekend’s two AFL preliminary finals.

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Preliminary Final 1 – Geelong vs Western Bulldogs (MCG, 7.40pm AEST tonight)

The Bulldogs rightfully claimed their spot in the final four with a spirited win over Sydney. Now they face Mission Impossible should they choose to accept. Paul Roos was right on the money when he said “history tells you it’s very hard to keep on winning in finals.”

The Bulldogs have won finals here and there over the years but have only won multiple finals in the same campaign twice – the first in 1954 when they captured their only flag and the second in 1961 when they played in their last Grand Final.

This wouldn’t rank up there with Essendon vs Carlton of 1999 but it would be up there in terms of an upset.

The Dogs have played more finals against the Cats than anyone else. They’ve met in September on eight previous occasions and seven of those are the only times these two have met at the MCG. The last time was an 82-point thumping the Dogs received in 1995.

No matter what way you look at it, you’d have to be a pretty brave man to tip the Bulldogs, even more so after the Cats have had the week off. The Cats are purring like a well-oiled machine and are playing Total Football like nobody has before. Well maybe like they did last year.

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Prediction: Geelong by 38 points

Preliminary Final 2 – Hawthorn vs St Kilda (MCG, 7pm AEST on Saturday night)

Last week was a huge one for St Kilda. Lose, they’re out in straight sets and nothing is going right. But they won, are in a preliminary final, extended Robert Harvey’s career by a week and could somehow pull off an upset.

What the Swans did to them in 2005, they have the chance to do to Hawthorn and if Nick Riewoldt plays like he did last week, anything is possible.

The Hawks haven’t been to a Grand Final since 1991. Not a long time but an eternity for those fans from Glenferrie who enjoyed going to seven straight Premiership deciders in the 1980s. In those days Hawthorn playing in the Grand Final was as certain as death and taxes.

Preliminary finals are always drama-filled because of the desire to play in the big one and while Hawthorn should prevail it may be a lot closer than what many think.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 8 points

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