Quite simply, Melbourne have too much firepower for Manly to handle. Sure, they might be missing suspended skipper Cameron Smith and injured backrower Ryan Hoffman, but this is a Storm side that knows how to win.
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Over the past three years, they have won 80 per cent of their games, an amazing statistic of consistency when you consider most of those years they have been ravaged by representative commitments which this season also claimed their coach.
The consistency has spread over into their dominance of Manly, a side which they have beaten in four of their last five meetings, including last year’s 34-8 rout in the grand final.
Manly have shown they can stay with the Storm for up to an hour but, when push comes to shove and the game is there to be won, it’s Melbourne who have the match-winners in the form of Greg Inglis, Israel Folau, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk.
The 16-10 defeat in their last meeting at Brookvale Oval in round 22 is the closest the Sea Eagles have come to toppling the Storm in their last three meetings.
In that game, Manly made almost 400 metres more than the Storm (1541-1187), had less missed tackles (41-30), had almost three times as many offloads (14-5) and made six line breaks to Melbourne’s two.
And they still lost.
As long as the Storm’s big men can hold their own against the Manly pack, the Storm have too much class out wide, and it will be up to Jeff Lima to lead the way as he has done all year.
Lima has averaged 126 metres per game this year, but he needs more support from Brett White (82 metres) and Antonio Kaufusi (72 metres) against the likes of Brent Kite and Josh Perry.
WHY MANLY WILL WIN
By Todd Balym
Physically, Manly should dominate this year’s NRL grand final.
They are fitter, faster, stronger and more determined than Melbourne.
The only thing that can stop Manly winning is themselves.
The mental battle has often been the toughest thing for the Sea Eagles when it comes to stopping the Storm.
Time and again they have handled Melbourne’s ferocity, but when the match goes on the line the Storm have had too many match winners to contain with the likes of Inglis, Folau, Cronk and Slater.
But if the NRL finals series has taught us anything it is that Manly have more than one bullet in their gun.
Halfback Matt Orford is not the be-all and end-all for the Sea Eagles.
Brett Stewart isn’t just a prolific tryscorer but he has also learnt to create for others.
Jamie Lyon has settled into five-eighth with a dangerous running and kicking game, Glenn Stewart is a clever ball runner while Anthony Watmough torments the opposition with his running on the edges.
Manly have made gigantic leaps ahead in attack this year and are now the benchmark of the NRL.
They have scored 16 more tries than the Storm in 2008 from one less game, lead the competition in line breaks and cover more ground with the ball than anyone else.
They score more points than any other side in the back end of football games and, more importantly, they now believe they can do it against Melbourne.
They will throw more at the Storm this year and offer more variety than Melbourne in what they will produce.
Melbourne are not better than last year and are playing nowhere near their best.
In this finals series, they were lifeless against the New Zealand Warriors, lucky against Brisbane and while a 28-0 hammering of Cronulla last week was impressive, the Sharks were appalling.
Manly on the other hand are firing on all cylinders because they stick to a well-drilled plan.
They will bash Melbourne early with superior strength and speed before blowing them away in the final 20 minutes.
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