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Friday night’s Super 14 match at Canberra between the ACT Brumbies and the NSW Waratahs involves a fascinating contest between the power of the past (the Brumbies’ terrific winning record at home) and the pull of the present (the Waratahs’ terrific winning record this season).
First, the pull of the present: the Waratahs have won all four of their matches this season. They have garnered two bonus points. They have the third best Points Differential (plus 30 points) and the best (with the Crusaders) record for conceding tries (six so far this season).
On the back of these statistics, the Waratahs are first-equal with the Bulls on the table and have won their only away match against the strong Hurricanes side at Wellington.
The Brumbies, on the other hand, have won two out of their three matches this season. Their Points Differential of -5 is seventh best, or worst, among the 14 sides.
They have conceded 11 tries in three matches. They lost their last match at home against the Western Force.
But this brings us to the power of the past.
That loss was only the second time since 1996 that the Brumbies have been defeated at Canberra by an Australian side. The home ground advantage against Australian teams is a sixteen wins to two defeats record.
The Waratahs have played the Brumbies six times at Canberra and won only one time, in 2005. That year, with Ewen McKenzie as coach, the Waratahs went on to make the final.
In my view, the Brumbies have not played their best centre pairing in the tournament, with the Stirling Mortlock-Adam Ashley-Cooper combination.
I saw the team play against the Hurricanes pre-season and Tyrone Smith had a big impact on the victory playing at inside centre. If a Smith-Mortock pairing is used, I think the Brumbies have a good chance of a forward to the future type of win.
I also believe that the Waratahs have not played to their potential this year. In The Sydney Morning Herald on Tuesday, I argued that the team had been playing dumb rugby, and that this tendency towards dumb play will catch up with the team if the habit is not changed.
A Waratahs side playing with an expansive game plan – using the blistering pace of Lachlan Turner and Rob Horne, the two fastest backs in Australian rugby, with a strong scrum and lineout giving quality ball to the backs to use – should turn out to be comfortable winners.
But then we have made similar predictions about a Waratahs victory at Canberra based on the pull of the present only for the side to be confounded by the power of the past.
My guess, though, is that the present will trump the past at Canberra on Friday night.