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AFL preview for remainder of round 12 (all times local).
FRIDAY, JUNE 19
ESSENDON v MELBOURNE at Etihad Stadium 7.40pm
Head to head: Essendon 82, Melbourne 66, Drawn 1
Last time: Essendon 19.10 (124) bt Melbourne 17.6 (108) R18 2008 MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Essendon $1.22, Melbourne $4.20
Sportingbet: Essendon $1.28, Melbourne $3.70
Summary: Essendon have become the AFL’s most notorious teasers, with scintillating footy one week followed by the complete opposite. But for neutral supporters the Bombers have become one of the AFL’s most exciting units to watch, and the return of several key players this week will leave Matthew Knights’ charges a far more assured side. At 5-6 it’s crunch time for Essendon, who not only need to win against Melbourne but need to win big in order to improve their meagre percentage, which stands at 94. The Demons are merely fighting for pride but are due for a boilover, with their only win of the season – against Richmond – coming way back in round four. Jack Watts’ AFL debut against Collingwood was far from a fairytale affair but the 18-year-old will be better for the run. This time the focus will be first-gamer Liam Jurrah. The Demons were blown off the park by the Pies in the Queen’s Birthday game, so expect Melbourne to come out with a far greater intensity against the Bombers.
Key: The start. Essendon were overrun by Adelaide last round so the Demons are in with a shot if they stick with the Bombers early.
Tip: Essendon by 41 points
SATURDAY, JUNE 20
SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD at ANZ Stadium 7.10pm
Head to head: Sydney 51, Collingwood 98, Drawn 1
Last time: Collingwood 18.10 (118) bt Sydney 10.13 (73) R21 2008 Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Sydney $1.95, Collingwood $1.85
Sportingbet: Sydney $1.91, Collingwood $1.91
Summary: It may be Sydney’s home game but ANZ Stadium holds no fears for Collingwood, who have won four of their six games there. The Pies are also on a six-game winning streak against the Swans and will surge into fourth spot should they account for Sydney. But Paul Roos’ men are proven performers when the chips are down, and Sydney bad boy Barry Hall will be desperate to make amends for his round 11 brain fade that cost his team victory against Hawthorn. The Pies boast plenty of match-winners, with Leon Davis and Dane Swan able to wreak havoc in the middle. But it is Collingwood’s small forwards that could pose the greatest threat for Sydney. Alan Didak is capable of ripping a game wide open, while Brad Dick has popped up for eight goals in his past two outings.
Key: Collingwood’s fleet-footed forward set-up can slam on goals quickly, so Sydney’s defence must be on their toes.
Tip: Collingwood by 17 points
SUNDAY, JUNE 21
FREMANTLE v GEELONG at Subiaco Oval 2.10pm
Head to head: Fremantle 6, Geelong 16, Drawn 0
Last time: Geelong 18.10 (118) bt Fremantle 6.8 (44) R15 2008 Skilled Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Fremantle $7.50, Geelong $1.08
Sportingbet: Fremantle $7.50, Geelong $1.09
Summary: Only a Matthew Pavlich poster prevented Fremantle from stealing the corresponding fixture last year, so the unbeaten Cats won’t enter this one too complacent. But having said that, Geelong looked sluggish when they took on West Coast in Perth two weeks ago. The week off should have the Cats firing on all cylinders again, with both sides boosted by the return of key players. Geelong’s midfield oozes class and the Dockers could struggle to contain Gary Ablett, especially with tagger Ryan Crowley on the sidelines nursing a season-ending foot injury. Fremantle started off the season in terrible fashion but their willingness to attack through the corridor in the past two months has netted them three wins and respect amongst their peers. But with such a young side they are vulnerable to making mistakes, and Geelong are the masters of making teams pay for turnovers. It will be interesting to see whether Dean Solomon cops any special treatment as payback for his horrific elbow on Cameron Ling last year, which left the Cat nursing a fractured cheekbone.
Key: Geelong’s midfield. If they fire, Fremantle are no hope.
Tip: Geelong by 49 points.
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