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The first game of the Wallabies’ tour carries some disturbing psychological baggage – the Wallabies haven’t scored a try against the All Blacks in more than 200 minutes of Test rugby.
And it’s not as if they’ve been playing a wonderful team. In the 2009 Tri-Nations, counting all six games, the All Blacks scored just 10 more points than were scored against them, which means that either the Kiwis’ attack is lacking, or their defence is.
Or both are shaky.
Still, I believe the All Blacks will again come out on top, especially with Smith and Sivi back and Rodney determined to show who’s boss.
They’re 34 points better than the Wallabies in the last three Tests, and they’re packed with experience – seven of the starting team have 390 caps between them.
The Wallabies have players with lots of caps, too, but few have the talent of their opposite numbers. I’m backing the All Blacks to win all their games on their tour except for the one against the French.
That one might be a point too far.
It pains me, but I feel the Wallabies will have to beat Scotland to avoid a whitewash. For a hard tour like this, which includes mid-week games, you need bench strength and the team just hasn’t got anybody, outside of George Smith if he stays on the bench, to come on and turn the game around.
Apart from Ioane and AAC, we don’t have any bet-the-farm game breakers in the backs unless Deans finally plays Giteau at I/C.
In the forwards, we have Elsom who can make a difference, and a first class prop. And if Palu can’t be talked into getting out there and bullying people, we don’t have a No.8.
Bottom line is, even if the English, Irish and Welsh packs do contain second choices or players who’ve been off their feed, they’ll still be better than our front five.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.