After 10 games, there’s still only one clear semi-finalist. Five points clear of the chasing pick, with two home games to come, you’d have to back the Bulls to at least make the semis.
Home advantage is by no means certain though, with the Sharks, Crusaders and Stormers still to come. The Bulls heavies are looking tired and a hard match-up against the Sharks next week is going to leave them vulnerable to a desperate Crusaders team.
And then an away trip to Newlands to face the Stormers in what could be a do-or-die game for the Capetonians… but Morne Steyn at Loftus is a beautiful thing. Who can bet against that?
I have a nagging suspicion one of the Stormers or Crusaders is not going to make the final four… they both have a nightmare run home. The Crusaders can very easily drop both their remaining away games – their record at Loftus is terrible of late and the Stormers should be able to stop the red and black machine at home.
That being said, the Sharks and Bulls both know how to beat the Stormers and do so more often than not, which means the Stormers and Crusaders could be in sitting tied for 4th place with points differential making up the difference.
I’m backing the Reds and Waratahs to fill the other two spots. Everyone else is just too far off the pace, much as I’d like to see the Sharks surprise everyone. The odds are just too long on the front runners losing them all.
So, through a very muddy crystal ball I see…
1. Bulls.
2. Reds.
3. Waratahs.
4. Stormers.
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