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Hands up those who remember Gwyneth Paltrow’s 1998 movie, Sliding Doors? Well, off the bat, shame on you, especially you ex-forward types. On-field tough guys indeed…
For those of you who don’t remember, or those of you ex-forward types now pretending you don’t remember, the movie is about the concept of alternate realities, detailing in parallel what happens to young Gwyneth when she just catches/just misses her London tube train.
Why do I bring this up? Well, just humour me here.
Last Friday, Dan Vickerman announced that he would be returning to Australian rugby next June, on the completion of his studies at Cambridge University. Flanked by a somewhat relieved Wallaby coach Robbie Deans, and a positively grinning ARU CEO John O’Neill, Vickerman explained that while he’ll undoubtedly be a little rusty, his focus is very much on next year’s Rugby World Cup.
Cue the public rejoicing and fanfare.
Vickerman’s long-rumoured and now confirmed return is quickly becoming a Sliding Doors affair.
You see, there are Wallaby fans out there, and plenty of them pop up on The Roar from time to time, who firmly believe that Vickerman is the final cog in the Wallabies RWC wheel. They’re of the belief that his return has given the green light for the engraver to commence his work updating the William Webb Ellis Trophy now, a full year before the event takes place. Go on, off you go, A-U-S-T-R-A-L-I-A…
In this reality, Vickerman would not have let the All Blacks put 49 points on the Wallabies on the forgettable night in Melbourne a few weeks back. Even better, there is the strong belief that had Vickerman played in Christchurch, the Wallabies would have won, and the Bledisloe Cup would still be alive this year.
The way John O’Neill was beaming at the announcement last Friday, he may well belong to this alternate reality, and there’s no doubt he would love the Bledisloe to still be in play for the last Tri-Nations fixture between Australia and New Zealand in Sydney in a month’s time.
In the alternate reality, however, Vickerman is something of an unknown. His return is still great news, as would be the return of any player of the quality that Vickerman was before he headed to Cambridge.
In this reality, the jury is well aware of his past deeds, and knows what a difference he could make, but are considering their verdict all the same.
At best, he’s going to be a very handy reinforcement for the Wallabies’ lock stocks, not to mention the fact that he is a specialist lock, rather than something who can also, or perhaps should only, play blindside flanker.
When Vickerman headed to England, he and Nathan Sharpe formed a lock partnership up there with any other in world rugby. South Africa’s Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha weren’t near as intimidating when Sharpe and Vickerman lined up opposite, because the lineouts were once again back on even ground.
This reality also recognises that Vickerman hasn’t played a Test Match since midway through 2008, and apart from some competitive games for Cambridge, including lifting the Varsity Challenge cup against Oxford last year, he hasn’t played a whole lot of rugby at all.
In fact, even now, he hasn’t played since February due to a leg injury and won’t play again until October, when Cambridge starts building up for their annual showdown with Oxford at the end of the year. Further, he’ll keep playing with Cambridge until the completion of his studies in May or June next year.
At best, he might scrape into the last couple of Super rugby games for the Waratahs on return, plus any finals matches for which they might qualify.
And that, of course, is assuming he slots straight back in, which is something Vickerman himself isn’t taking for granted. While the other reality has Vickerman a walk-up start for the Wallabies in the Tri-Nations (and a lay-down misere for RWC Player of the Tournament), the man himself is rather more circumspect about his chances:
“I’m under no illusions with that [walking straight back into the Wallabies]. “There’s always a chance that I could be a flop. You never know.
“So I’m excited but nervous. I know what’s required, I know the work that I have to do to get into the position to hopefully be selected.”
No doubt, the Wallabies chances on the international scene next year are buoyed by the news of Vickerman’s return, but talk of Australia’s RWC odds being wound in by the bookies are as fanciful as my own hopes for Wallaby selection next year.
At his best, yes, Dan Vickerman would be a walk-up start for the Wallabies. But the truth is, he would’ve been out of the international game for three years, and we’ll have no idea how far away he is until he actually returns to Australian rugby.
Vickerman is but one piece in the Wallabies puzzle for the World Cup. He’s not the final piece, he’s not the difference between beating the All Blacks and the last nine attempts, and he’s not the Messiah either (and there’s been a few of them lately, too).
He will be, however, a very handy and a very welcome reinforcement, and it’ll be great to have him back.