As the dust settles and the blame is shared out for Australia’s inability to win the 2022 World Cup, I’ve struggled to come up with an appropriate analogy that captures what happened. But I think I’ve found one.
Imagine you are Australia and you’ve decided to play FIFA’s Texas Hold ‘Em poker. You walk into a dimly lit hall where there are two tables. The dealer (who insists you call him Sepp) had initially said that anyone could play at either table or even both, but then for reasons unknown, said that it might be better if the Europeans had one table and the Asian players plus the USA played at another with both games happening at the same time.
You are a relatively new player, but you hosted that Blackjack tournament back in 2000 and everybody said it was the ‘best ever’ so hopefully that should help you in this game.
The game has been going on for a long time now, but you feel you are getting the hang of it. Sepp deals out the cards and you get the feeling that this will be the last hand. You have the Ace and King of Hearts. You know that this combination is sometimes called ‘the Anna Kournikova’ as it looks better than it plays, but it’s enough for you to put in to see the flop. After all, you are in it to win it. Everybody else at the table stays in.
The flop comes out and it’s the Ace of Diamonds, the 10 of Diamonds and the 6 of Clubs which means you have a pair. You aren’t sure whether to keep going, but Sepp winks at you and says you look great in that shirt. He wouldn’t lie to you would he? You feel confident especially since you have been paying that stylist who claimed to know what Sepp liked when he picked out the shirt for you. You stay in. Everybody does the same.
Sepp turns over the next card and it’s the 10 of Hearts. You now have two pair. You stay in, but notice that Spain and Portugal keep coming over and whispering to Qatar. Everybody stays in.
Sepp turns over the final card and it’s the King of Diamonds. Sepp compliments all the players, except Qatar, saying that you have all played the game so well from a technical perspective and anyone of you would make a worthy winner. Surprisingly, this doesn’t seem to worry Qatar at all.
You still have two pair, but you’ve upgraded one pair. It’s now or never. You go all in, all $46 million.
England comes over to the table and says they’ve heard that the game is rigged and that this has happened in the past, but they are staying in the game since the rumour relates to events a few years ago.
Everybody sees your $46 million. It’s the final showdown.
Just before you turn over your cards, you hear a cheer from Russia at the next table. They’ve won. You wonder how that happened since you had heard that England was the best player.
You show your two pair.
Japan is next to show. They reveal pocket 6’s for three of a kind. You’ve lost already.
Korea shows the 2 and 3 of Diamonds. They have a flush. Japan is out.
The USA confidently puts down the 10 of Spades and 10 of Clubs. Four of a kind. Korea is out.
Qatar is the last to reveal. It’s the Jack and Queen of Diamonds. Trust the emir to have a royal flush.
As you stagger punch drunk out of the hall trying to work out what the hell just happened, you swear you see Sepp give Qatar a little wink.
Pure and simple, Australia was outwitted and outplayed. Maybe a better player would have bailed earlier, but we thought we had a good case. Maybe we could have bet stronger, but we couldn’t have waited for a better hand. People have pointed out that our next chance to host might be 2038 at the earliest, so of course if we had a chance this time round we had to take it.
Australia will learn from the experience and hopefully the lessons from this process won’t be forgotten. To mix my analogies up even more, Australia has learnt that you don’t bring a knife to a gunfight.
At the end of the day, this is what can happen when you player poker. Sometimes you get hustled.
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