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Australia's Adam Ashley-Cooper, center, is grabbed by France's Aurelien Rougerie, center right, Yannick Jauzion as Alexis Palisson looks on them during the international rugby match between France and Australia at the Stade de France stadium, in Saint-Denis, outside Paris, Saturday, Nov. 27, 2010. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Now that we’ve entered the year of the rugby World Cup, I thought it might be appropriate to pick a few ex-pats’ brains as to how they think the biggies will go in September and October. The following opinions were gathered on two different days at two different Sydney pubs.
The panel, for want of a better word, was comprised of Henne from South Africa, Brian from New Zealand, Alec from England, and two Aussies, Barry and Rex. Barry has spent half his life in France, and Rex – last name Goodwin – has been watching the Wallabies “for about 100 years,” so he says. I asked them all the same questions. Here are their answers:
Henne: SA rugby is solid domestically, but it’s in the same old uproar when it comes to the international scene. Not surprising when you have the SARU boss Hoskins at odds with PDV, who’s at odds with a large section of SA rugby fans. The loss to Scotland didn’t gain him any new friends, but the victory over England mollified that somewhat as they’re the strongest of the NH teams. It was an A-side to begin with and it only got weaker when Chiliboy and Basson were suspended and Habana busted his hand in training. Now the big question is will the team be able to adjust to the new style of reffing? A lot of people back home doubt that we’ll be able to change from our traditional game fast enough.
But we’re sure to have a great pack for the RWC. The front row will all be first rate scrummagers and powerful in the open, but it probably won’t include John Smit. Botha and Matfield will ensure the lineouts, and we’ll have a top notch back row with Spies, Stegman, Brussow, Burger and Juan Smith in the mix. Juan could get the captain’s job. The backs I’m not so big on. Pienaar and du Preeze are great and Morne Steyne distributes okay, but I’m not sure who he’ll have outside him in the midfield or just how talented they’ll be. Olivier? De Villiers for the experience? With the ABs and the Wallabies featuring exceptional midfields, we’ll have to come up with something special too.
A lot of Bok fans are talking about how we lost to Scotland in 2002 then had a bad RWC a year later. But let’s say we shake that hoodoo. Counting on a win over Wales in the pool game, I see October 9 game in Wellington as our first really big date, when we could be playing Ireland in the quarters. If we get by them, and they’ve been tough for us lately, then we expect to be up against the ABs the following Saturday at Eden Park in the semis. We won’t be able to match their firepower behind the pack, but if we can stay close to them on the scoreboard, we can bring our siege gun into play – Morne Steyne and his ability to hit on those long range drop kicks. It could make the difference, but in my heart I doubt it.
Alec: We were chuffed by the win over the Wallabies but returned to reality when we were beaten by a depleted Boks side. The big plus is that we’re no longer afraid to play running rugby and we’ve got an exceptional fly half to help us do that in Toby Flood. It was always a big ask to replace Wilko, but Toby is kicking very, very well and is happy to have a dart in a Test match.
The recent Tests also showed us Courteny Lawes’ ability. He’s terrific. I doubt that Matt Giteau’s been nailed all that often by a lock. In the coming Six Nations, we’ll want to beat Ireland but we really want to beat France because they’re once again an unknown quantity. We’re taking no notice of the thrashing handed out by Australia. France have too many good players not to be a threat.
As for the RWC, we’ll likely be playing Les Bleus in the quarter finals in Chrischurch on October 8 as long as Argentina doesn’t upset our apple cart. If we get past France we could be facing the Wallabies or the Boks in the semis. It won’t be easy beating a southern hemisphere team in the SH, but if we do and make the final, we’ll have done extremely well. I expect the ABs to make the final and, to be honest, beating them at Eden Park is not on the cards. We can’t match them in the back row. Moody’s class but Easter’s too slow to score tries the way Read does. And in the midfield, Hape and Tyndall won’t be able to compete with the likes of Nonu, Sonny Billy Williams and Smith. But I think we’ll make the podium.
Barry: Some of the fans in France are looking on the bright side and saying they got a lousy performance out of the way. But we’ll only know that when the Six Nations starts. But, however, they go before the RWC I believe they’ll be a nuisance if not a force in the actual comp. They’ll have an exceptional pack. A very powerful front row and intimidating locks. Nallet’s a handful and Millo-Chluski is six five and over 120 kilos. A revitalized Dusautoir and Bonnaire on the flanks and Harinordoquy at 8 will make for a back row to contend with.
However, the backs are a different matter. It’s true that Parra and Yachvili are a double threat at 9, and they’re both fine kickers, but apart from Trinh-Duc, none of the other backs are inked in as far as I know. As for the Auckland pool game against the All Blacks on September 24, I think France will try to win the battle up front as they know they won’t be able to compete with the ABs in the backs. The French backs will probably be picked for defence with the idea of swarming the Kiwi midfield. Good luck on that.
Still, many French fans remember how their team destroyed the ABs in that famous second half in ’99, but they forget that France had some great backs on that team – Galthie, Lamaison, Bernat-Salle, Dominici, Dourthe. The current French team is sorely lacking in this area. I can’t see them or anybody else beating the ABs unless the Wallabies do it.
Brian: The ABs are number one because we’ve got the balance right between forwards and backs. The front five is more than competitive and we have the top back row. We’ll have a great set of backs for the RWC. One of the best ever from 9 to 15. But we have to keep the confidence level up for the entire squad after the grand slam tour. This could be severely dented if, in the Tri-Nations, we were to lose to the Boks in Wellington or to the Wallabies in Auckland. Win those and it doesn’t matter if we lose in the later TN matches in Port Elizabeth and Brisbane.
Confidence is high at home but there’s an undercurrent of worry and it’s this – if Carter or Richie get injured and can’t make the RWC they won’t be easily replaced. I’d say Carter has a greater influence on the ABs than any other player has in any of the other Big Five sides. He’s our bread and butter.
Henry will field our best 15 for the pool game against France. I believe we’ll be too good for Les Bleus. The only team we’re wary of is the Wallabies. That Hong Kong loss still rankles. But this is our year and I’m not wrapping myself in the flag when I say that if the best team at the RWC wins the RWC, then that’ll be us.
Rex: The Wallabies started out with a cracker in Hong Kong, but went off the boil against England. It’s one thing if England beats us with a superior penalty count but quite another if we don’t score more tries than they do and we didn’t. Looking ahead I’m hopeful about a number of things. I’m hoping that Vickerman and Horwill will be fully recovered from academia and injury although they won’t have much time to get test-level fit. I’m hoping that Nathan Sharpe keeps his excellent form and that the front row problem is assuaged if not completely solved. Moore and TPN give us two fine hookers in the loose, and Robertson can gallop, but will our scrum continue to be bullied? The back row could be the equal of any team’s if Palu comes back not just fighting fit but fighting mad. He could be another Willie O or Kefu once some coach convinces him that it’s his job to take over and terrorise.
We have some very talented backs. Barnes will be the linch pin at 12 with his ability to feed, tackle and kick those droppies. AAC, O’Connor, Mitchell, Turner, Hynes, Ioane, Beale, we have a great lineup. But so do the ABs, specially with the addition of SBW. It could be that Deans will bring Mortlock in to handle him. Bottom line for our backs is this – Cooper has undeniable talent but Carter is the best player on the world stage.
The RWC starts officially on September 9, but I think it starts earlier than that on August 6 when we play the ABs in Auckland in the Tri-Nations. If we can beat them then at Eden Park, what a boost that would be for us and what a downer for them. However, even if that happens I still think the ABs will win the WRC. The AB team is pretty well carved in stone and the Wallabies are still an adventure.
But whatever happens, it’s going to be a great tournament.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.