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The official schedule for the 2011 Super 15 tournament lists the teams in their alphabetical order. The Blues lead the pack and the Waratahs are placed last. Supporters of the Waratahs will hope, with some good cause in my view, that by the end of the tournament the last will be first.
My good cause reasons are grounded on the law of averages.
Since 1882, the Waratahs have been Australia’s greatest state side, and a side that has a superb record of defeating overseas international and provincial sides. If someone had predicted in 1996, when the Super Rugby tournament started (as a 12-team competition), that the Waratahs would not have won the tournament, not even once, that person would have been laughed out of the bar.
The law of averages will only help you, if you help yourself. Are the Waratahs capable of taking their history by the scruff of the neck?
In my view, they are.
The glamour Australian side last season was the Reds. They will have their tough second-rower and captain James Horwill back. Their scrum, though, isn’t the strongest.
They will also miss the terrific loose forward work of Daniel Braid, who has returned to the Blues and the All Blacks. And can Quade Cooper maintain the dazzling play he unveiled last season? He will be a targeted player on attack and defence. Last season, he missed more tackles than any other single player in Super Rugby.
The Waratahs have the best balanced side of the five Australian teams.
They will have a competitive scrum and lineout. With Wycliff Palu back they will have a power ball-runner to set up rucks and mauls, and force Cooper and other flighty opposition backs to make some painful tackesl.
Phil Waugh, the skipper and stalwart, is a big match player but possibly needs to be subbed later in matches to give the Waratahs a bit more pace in their loose forward trio.
The Waratahs backs look a likely combination. Drew Mitchell and Kurtley Beale give the side an attacking edge that should see many opposition’s sliced to ribbons.
A key factor will be the form of Berrick Barnes. He had a poor season last year with the Waratahs, kicking away too much ball.
But with the Wallabies he flourished.
If he can carry over this form into 2011 and release Rob Horne and the other dashers in the backline, then the Waratahs will be very hard to defeat.
There is one other factor that will help the Waratahs, provided they establish themselves – as I believe they will – as Australia’s strongest Super Rugby team.
That factor is the new format for the Super 15.
Each of the SANZAR countries fields five sides. Each group of five plays each other twice, home and away, in the pool rounds. They also play a number of other sides from, in the case of Australian sides, New Zealand and Australia.
The three conference winners automatically make the finals, along with the next three teams from any of the conferences with the most number of table points.
The effect of this reform is to reward the strongest team in each conference. So there is a premium on sides to defeat their local rivals. The Waratahs are well placed in terms of an experienced coaching staff (Chris Hickey is in his third year in the job as head coach), senior players and gifted youngsters to be the dominant Australian side.
The 2011 season starts off for the Waratahs with two intriguing matches.
First up, they play the new Melbourne Rebels, coached by Rod Macqueen, a former successful coach of the Waratahs, the creator of the Brumbies and Australia’s most successful Test coach. Then (with a victory under their belt, presumably), the Waratahs play the Reds at ANZ Stadium in what will be a standout match.
The Waratahs’ last match of the pool rounds, round 18, is a return match against the Brumbies once again at ANZ Stadium. This is the last round of the tournament. If past history with the last round being crucial in establishing the finals sides, this match could be a decider, one way or another.
In between these match, the Waratahs will play the Cheetahs, the Chiefs, the Rebels, the Western Force, the Lions, and the Highlanders at the SFS, their home fortress.
The Waratahs’ away matches outside Australia involve the Crusaders, the Blues, the Sharks, Lions, and Bulls.
There are no easy matches in the Super 15. It is the best provincial/state rugby tournament in the world. The overseas away matches will not be easy. But if they want to be the champions, the Waratahs need to be good enough to win a couple of them.
If they do this, and win most of their home matches, they will certainly be in the finals.
And once a team is in the finals, it controls its own destiny. For the Waratahs, that destiny could be – finally – a Super Rugby tournament victory.
Carpe diem!