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There are several perennial questions in Australian Sport. Despite salary caps, cycles and other devices to even sports tournaments replacing these questions, a few still survive.
Collingwood and St George Illawarra Dragons have answered their supporters’ questions by winning their respective premierships. The Australian cricket team has been beaten, after a truly golden period of several decades.
The Cronulla Sharks are yet to answer the perennial question: “Will they ever win a Premiership?”.
Another question that remains is that of the Waratahs: “Will the Waratahs ever reach their potential?”.
This question is a reasonable one and based on several well founded facts. NSW and Sydney are the biggest states and cities in Australia. The majority of Australian rugby players come from NSW. The Waratahs get first look and choice of these players. This has further improved with advent of the professional era in rugby.
Many more rugby league players now play both codes throughout their schoolboy days. Rugby’s Olympic and International Sevens competitions offer the very best players a wonderful pathway from schoolboy to provincial and international rugby.
In addition, the Waratahs’ Sydney home base offers these players the best lifestyle of any city in the world. Their training facilities and resources are second to none.
There are two questions. Will they ever win the Super Rugby tournament and if so, when will they achieve it?
The answer to the first is that the probability is that they will win the tournament. Their chances are assisted by their natural and sustainable competitive advantages.
They have no unique negatives that could adversely affect their chances of winning the tournament.
The answer to the second question is more difficult to answer.
Based on the current betting markets, and their ability to simply reflect the weight of money for each team, the consensus is that the Waratahs won’t win this year:
Bulls $4.00 Crusaders $4.00
Stormers $8.00
Sharks $9.00
Hurricanes $10.00
Waratahs $11.00
Brumbies $13.00
Blues $15.00 Reds $15.00
Chiefs $17.00
Western Force $51.00 Rebels $81.00 Highlanders $101.00 Cheetahs $151.00 Lions $201.00.
It is usually difficult to assess the likely starting team at this point of the preseason. However, the Waratahs senior squad has not changed much since last year, other than for the inclusion of some bright young things such as McCaffrey and Douglas or experienced backups like Ryan Cross and O’Connor.
Before I select my starting 22, I need to make some assumptions on the Waratahs’ likely playing strategy. Due to either wishful thinking on my part, or the overwhelming logic of it, I have assumed that the Waratahs will finally commence the season with the attacking strategy that they belatedly adopted last year in the middle of the season, just as they had in previous years.
I remember how Burgess announced himself on the Super 14 stage when he picked up the 2008 team by the scruff of the neck and launched a major strategy change from the boring, mindless, low risk playing style to an attacking up tempo game in the mid season.
This assumption recognises the commercial realities that an attacking possession based style of rugby makes the turnstiles clatter, that changes to the law interpretations encourage this style, and that this attacking style is an effective counter to the 2010 tournament’s finalists tactics and personnel, the Bulls and Stormers.
Further, at least 10 of the Waratah’s starting 22 have spent the past seven months learning how to play Deans, Nucifora and Graham’s effective and successful style of attacking rugby, together with the requisite skill-set.
Finally, Chris Hickey has hopefully learnt from his mistakes in his first two seasons and in appointing Scott Bowen, has shown his hand and inclination towards the attacking and possession based strategy.
Here is the Waratahs’ likely starting 22, with comments, for their first competition game against the Melbourne Rebels.
1. Robinson: Immediate selection, but more 2010 pre injury form.
2. TPN: Immediate selection, and yet to reach his potential.
3. Kepu: Immediate selection: late 2009 injury stalled his 2010 season but should have been a 2010 Wallaby tourist.
4. Douglas: Find of the 2010 season. A genuine RWC tourist chance if he maintains his 2010 form.
5. Mumm: More a 6 than a lock and failed to impress in the Wallabies 2010 season.
6. Dennis: Needs to get wide of the ruck and run off Palu, Burgess and Barnes.
7. Waugh (C): Did he refresh himself while others were in Camp Wallaby?
8. Palu: Expect a slow start and hope that he rediscovers his 2009 form and physicality.
9. Burgess: Has been riding the self confidence rollercoaster but seems to have found confidence and form. He is fearless in defence and offers another attacking option.
10. Halangahu: Underrated as a player but will never bring the Quade effect. Can he be the play maker that ignites the backline? The secret will be to underplay his hand and distribute the ball with flair, purpose and timing.
11. Mitchell: Immediate selection, if he can maintain his commitment and concentration to the cause. I am not convinced.
12. Barnes: The former Deans appointed Wallaby Vice Captain recovered form in the latter part of 2010 and finished strongly. Can he sustain it?
13. Horne: Immediate selection if he can stay fit enough to learn the 13 position.
14. Turner: Immediate selection at Waratah level, and has the uncoachable: speed. Let’s see it used more.
15. Beale: Immediate selection and now fit and in the right position. The looser Super rugby defences are tailor made for Beale V2.0.
16. Baxter: Will feel pressure from Tilse and Ryan but the loss of Palmer could be expensive.
17. Fitzpatrick: Young, tough and very quick.
18. O’Connor: Journeyman who will need to bring his best to make the bench when Jowitt and Vickerman return.
19. McCutcheon: When did he morph into a 7 from a 4/5/6/8? His Sevens and leadership pedigree are encouraging. At 187 cms, he is 11 cms taller than Waugh, 3cms taller than Pocock but the same height and weight as McCaw. (I see Deans Paw prints all over this!!)
20. Holmes: Immediate selection, but only as a utility. He covers 9, 11, 12 or 14. Still young but yet to announce himself and not as good a half back as McKibbin.
21. Cross: a big quick unit who can defend and has proven his professionalism at 11, 13 and 14.
22. Sosene Anesi: last back three left standing.
The 2011 Waratahs have been rated accurately by the Bookmakers. At best, they will make the 6 team finals but will fall at the first hurdle.
There are many positives. he starting team is a very good one, overall. Settled for several seasons, and bristling with speed in the back row and backline, (Mitchell, Turner, Barnes, Horne and Beale), they should continue where they left off last year. It will be the first time since 2008 and before that, 2006, that they have had a fast start to the season.
Can Halangahu and Barnes light it up with the parity possession that the Foley coached pack will get?
The 2011 Waratahs have four weaknesses. The longer season, and the inevitable injury toll will expose their fundamental weakness, a shortage of genuine, proven backline talent on the bench and beyond. For example, if Beale is injured, Anesi, a pale imitation, starts.
If Halangahu is injured, Barnes moves to 10, Horne to 12 and Cross to 13; and a brand new midfield/backline trying to play cohesive attacking, possession based rugby. The next row of backline players are Brackin Karauria-Henry (3 S14 caps) or Afa Pakalani (0).
In the ARU Sevens programme is Eastwood’s John Grant, the gentle giant, reminiscent of Usain Bolt. But Grant needs a large dose of dynamite to stop him from impersonating a disinterested seven year old picking daisies while his Mini Rugby mates run the ball up field on a wintery Saturday morning.
Secondly, the Waratahs remain weak in the lock postion. The Waratahs best specialist lock, Kane Douglas, is in only his second year of Super rugby and first year as a member of the main squad. Dennis and Mumm are 6’s, or “cruiser weight” locks.
Thirdly, does Phil Waugh, the Captain, have the speed and the miles left in his legs for a full Super rugby season? If not, Chris Alcock, still only in the Waratahs training squad, could jump over McCutcheon, land in the seven jersey and deliver more his 2010 performances.
Finally, despite my assumption, will Hickey adopt the attacking, possession based game strategy? If not, the kicking game will give the ball away and then expose the weakness in the second row and lineout jumpers. The backline will ferment, atrophy and seize up by the end of the domestic rounds.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.