The 2011 AFL season gets underway tonight, but living outside Victoria, it’s hard to get genuinely excited about the season opener between Richmond and Carlton. That issue aside, here’s my opportunity to grab the crystal ball and get bold, particularly on Geelong who – according to many – are in decline.
Let’s get one thing straight, the Cats are going to miss Gary Ablett Jnr.
I’m not going to beat around the bush on that one, the guy is arguably the best player going around in the AFL and his absence will be felt at Skilled Stadium.
The argument is that, with Ablett and coach Mark Thompson leaving, Geelong’s ‘premiership window’ is over after four years at the top. It’s argued that, with those departures and with the list getting a year older, there’s not much upside for Geelong.
It’s a fair argument, but this is a side still boasting a long list of top quality AFL players, including Joel Selwood, Paul Chapman, Steve Johnson, Jimmy Bartel and Matthew Scarlett, to name a few.
For what it’s worth, Herald Sun football writer mike Sheahan had six Cats inside his top 35 in his list for 2011.
And, personally, I was never convinced by the part coach Thompson played in Geelong’s success and feel his departure won’t hurt too much. In my opinion, the Cats’ success was driven by a talented and focused player group (motivated by 2005 and 2006’s failures) rather than any overwhelming tactical nous.
That’s not to discredit Thompson as a coach, but this is a quality group of players who go about their business very professionally. I doubt they’ll stop that simply because of a change of coach.
Perhaps, even a fresh face in Chris Scott will revitalise and re-focus some of the ageing players, but that’s one for the crystal ball.
We shouldn’t forget Geelong were only an umpire’s decision away from defeating St Kilda in the qualifying final last term, which shows the fine margins in AFL footy.
Beyond that defeat, Geelong were outstanding last season, except for the two losses they had to Collingwood late in the season, when the Magpies seemed to have their measure tactically.
Maybe with a new face at the Cats helm, the players will feel they can have another crack at Collingwood with a fresh approach although it’ll be a tough gig for a rookie coach.
But sometimes it’s not about closing the gap, but others falling back to the field. But looking at flag favourites Collingwood it’s hard to see that happening considering their recent results and list on paper, which has plenty of upside.
But anything can happen, from injuries hitting the list hard, to players losing focus, to inaccuracy in a Grand Final (ask Geelong).
Meanwhile, after failing to come up with the goods in three successive Grand Finals, St Kilda will be seeking the ultimate redemption in 2011, particularly after an off-season from hell.
But with coach Ross Lyon’s intense game-plan demanding so much of his team, I feel they may slide despite not losing much playing talent.
My colleague Michael DiFabrizio wrote an engaging column earlier this week about the Western Bulldogs’ premiership chances in 2011, and there’s no doubt Rodney Eade knows he needs to deliver this season after president David Smorgon’s warning.
Injuries hit the Dogs hard in 2010 and they do possess a list with plenty of upside with impressive youngsters like Ryan Griffen, Shaun Higgins and Easton Wood hoping to take them to the next level. After years of falling short, they shouldn’t be short on motivation too and could well challenge for the flag.
Adelaide are a side I fancy as big improvers after 2010 proved a write-off, while Hawthorn continue to be well-backed but without the surprise impact of Clarko’s cluster I don’t see them as real contenders despite the individual brilliance of Lance Franklin.
Down the other end, it’ll be interesting to see how Gold Coast Suns fare in their first season, with many predicting them for the wooden spoon.
Anyway, enough of the crystal ball gazing as the real stuff begins tonight, but for what it’s worth here’s how I see 2011 evolving;
Top Eight
1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. St Kilda
7. Essendon
8. Fremantle
Premiers – Collingwood
Runners Up – Geelong
Wooden Spoon – Richmond
Brownlow Medal – Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
Coleman Medal – Lance Franklin (Hawthorn)
Rising Star Winner – David Swallow (Gold Coast)
Big Improver – Adelaide
Big Slider – Sydney
Big Question Mark – Fremantle. In 2010 they were the team on the rise but after a pre-season from hell they have got a big challenge ahead to stay on course. Dockers’ sides in the past have promised and not delivered, this side led by now-veteran skipper Matthew Pavlich would hate to fall into that category.
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