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Although there are still two rounds remaining, and eight teams vying for six spots, the finals of the 2011 Super Rugby season have already commenced. All 14 remaining games are critical to the finals chances of the aspirants. It is a given that they must win both games.
But, there are no easy games in 2011 Super Rugby season anymore. Just ask the Blues and the Reds after last weekend’s losses to the lowly placed Chiefs and Brumbies respectively.
A new format, the Rugby World Cup year, and the business end of the season, have ensured that each game has the intensity of a Rugby World Cup selection trial. The longer season has allowed early leaders to recover from a stumble and the slow starters to build winning combinations.
In the next two weeks, there are five season-defining games, each effectively worth at least eight points. Four of these games are also local derbies between traditional rivals.
1. Crusaders v Blues (I predict a Crusaders win.)
2. Stormers v Bulls (I predict a Stormers win.)
3. Bulls v Sharks (I predict a Bulls win.)
4. Blues v Highlanders (I predict a Blues win.)
5. Waratahs v Highlanders (I predict a Waratahs win.)
This is the beauty of the redesigned competition format: local derbies pitting finals aspirants against each other in season-defining games, in front of capacity crowds in some of world rugby’s greatest stadia.
To date, the players have provided scintillating rugby for those lucky enough to get a ticket. Long may that continue.
The Highlanders are still nuisance value for both the Blues and the Waratahs.
Bonus points are yet to have their influence on proceedings.
The current competition leaders, the Queensland Reds, travel to play the reinvigorated Western Force and the dangerous, last-start away winners, the Chiefs.
However, in the darkness of last weekend’s surprise loss to the Brumbies, the Reds received a massive help from the Blues.
By losing to the Chiefs, the Blues ceded the projected second place on the ladder to the Stormers.
Had the Blues won this game, and other games had gone to the favourites, the Reds would be playing the Blues in the Final in Brisbane. Now, the Reds are projected to play the Stormers in Brisbane.
The Stormers will have to beat the Blues on Saturday in South Africa and then travel to Brisbane, and on one day less preparation than their opponents.
Even off the back of two losses in South Africa, the Blues’ loss to the Chiefs also benefits the Waratahs. They are likely to play the Blues in New Zealand rather than the Stormers in South Africa.
Further, the Waratahs would be facing an Auckland Blues team with the very poor form line of one win, one bye and four losses from the final six rounds of the Super competition. (Losses to Reds, Stormers, Chiefs, Crusaders.)
For the record, in the remaining nine games, I project:
1. Chiefs V Hurricanes (Chiefs)
2. Brumbies V Rebels (Brumbies)
3. Force V Reds (Reds)
4. Lions V Sharks (Sharks)
5. Rebels V Force (Force)
6. Chiefs V Reds (reds)
7. Crusaders V Hurricanes (Crusaders)
8. Waratahs V Brumbies (Waratahs)
9. Cheetahs V Stormers (Stormers)
On that basis, the final table will be:
1 Reds 66
2 Stormers 65
3 Blues 63
4 Crusaders 61
5 Sharks 56
6 Waratahs 55
7 Bulls 54
8 H’Landers 44
9 Hurricanes 43
10 Chiefs 39
11 Cheetahs 38
12 Force 36
13 Brumbies 32
14 Lions 31
15 Rebels 24
Prelim:
3 v 6 Blues v Waratahs
4 V 5 Crusaders v Sharks
Semi 1: Reds v Crusaders
Semi 2: Stormers v Blues
Final: Reds v Stormers
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