Having recently declared their hand as a “major player” in this year’s trade period, Richmond looks set to alter their list management tactics after several years of draft concentration. Taking a look at previous post-season periods, is trading for established bodies more productive than taking a few chances in the draft?
Richmond has rebuilt admirably with a crop of youngsters pushing the Tigers to the fringe of the eight after numerous recruiting stuff-ups, although the loss to the Gold Coast Suns plumbs new depths.
With the exodus of players who left upon Damien Hardwick’s arrival, Richmond started with a clean slate.
At what time in the lifespan of a playing list should the club shift its focus from drafting players to trading for players?
Collingwood is the most notable case study with the arrival of Darren Jolly and Luke Ball having a considerable impact on their premiership run.
They only narrowly missed out the previous year and fielded one of the youngest premiership teams in recent years.
12 of Collingwood’s premiership players arrived at the club within the last five years. In contrast, only four of Geelong’s 2009 premiership team did the same.
With the average paying career of an AFL footballer lasting between four to five years, I will look at the 2006 and 2007 trade and draft periods. This will include national drafts and pre-season drafts only, not the rookie draft.
Test 1
In this first test, I will give each draftee either a pass or a fail.
In order for a draftee to pass, they must still currently be on an AFL senior list for their drafted club. 2006 draftees must have played at least 30 games at the senior level and 2007 draftees 25.
For players who were attained through trade, the player must have played 40 games (because they already have a mature body) for their new club or played in a preliminary final for their new club.
2006
Drafted: 89
Traded: 9
Drafted players passed: 29
Traded players passed: 5
Draft percentage: 33.72 percent
Trade percentage: 55.56 percent
2007
Drafted: 75
Traded: 20
Drafted players passed: 33
Traded players passed: 11
Draft percentage: 47.14 percent
Trade percentage: 55 percent
Total
Average draft pass: 37.80 percent
Average trade pass: 55.17 percent
Test 2
In this second test, I we will measure the ‘big time’ players to have been recruited. These are players who have played approximately 75 percent of the possible amount of games played since arriving at their new club.
For players recruited in 2006, this will require over 80 games or inclusion in a preliminary final.
For players recruited in 2007, this will require over 65 games or inclusion in a preliminary final.
2006
Big time players recruited: 18
Jason Akermanis, Paul Medhurst, Michael Gardiner, Bryce Gibbs, Joel Selwood, Ben Reid, Nathan Brown, Jack Riewoldt, Brent Renouf, Shane Edwards, Chris Dawes, Tom Hawkins, Josh Hill, Tyson Goldsack, Justin Westhoff and David Rodan.
Total drafted: 89
Total trade: 9
‘Big time’ players drafted: 15
‘Big time’ players traded: 3
‘Big time’ players drafted: 16.9 percent
‘Big time’ players traded: 33.3 percent
2007
Big time players recruited: 11
Martin Mattner, Chris Judd, Adam Schnieder, Sean Dempster, Steven King, Ben Hudson, Ben McEvoy, Cyril Rioli, Harry Taylor, Stewart Dew and Scott Welsh
Drafted: 75
Traded: 20
‘Big time’ players drafted: 5
‘Big time’ players traded: 6
‘Big time’ players drafted: 6.7 percent
‘Big time’ players traded: 30 percent
None of the traded players have won a flag.
Average ‘big time’ players drafted: 12.19 percent
Average ‘big time’ players recruited: 31.03 percent
Test 3
In this final test, I will note where each ‘big time’ player was drafted in order to assess the success rate of lower draft picks. For traded players, I will use the exchanged picks as the guide for where in the draft the player was valued.
Each of the players from test two will fall into a band of either first round, second round or third round (includes those beyond the third round).
2006
First round: 5 (Bryce Gibbs, Joel Selwood, Ben Reid, Nathan Brown, Jack Riewoldt)
Second round: 5 (Jason Akermanis, Peter Everitt, Brent Renouf, Shane Edwards, Chris Dawes)
Third round: 8 (Paul Medhurst, Michel Gardiner, Tom Hawkins, Josh Hill, Tyson Goldsack, Justin Westhoff, David Rodan)
2007
First round: 4 (Chris Judd, Ben McEvoy, Cyril Rioli, Harry Taylor)
Second round: 3 (Martin Mattner, Adam Schneider, Sean Dempster)
Third round: 4 (Steven King, Ben Hudson, Stewart Dew, Scot Welsh)
Average first round ‘big time’ success: 28.13 percent
Average second round ‘big time’ success: 28.13 percent
Average third round ‘big time’ success: 12 percent
Summary
Trading for players appears to have a greater success rate than drafting. However, the extent of trading for players is limited, while a good draft pick can net a 200+ gamer. Few traded players have the career span to achieve such a feat.
As stated earlier, this research was prompted by Richmond, who have their potential 200-game draftees in the form of Brett Deledio, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Reece Conca – all previous first-round picks.
Based on the statistics provided above, there is a clear abundance of traded players who play in teams which reach preliminary finals. However, these are teams whose premiership windows are wide open.
The obvious factor is the dependence of the draft class. With the concessions awarded to Greater Western Sydey, this will restrict the class further thus reducing the previous statistical probabilities of drafting a ‘big time’ player.
Trading for players may only get a team one week further in finals. Drafting may have the same effect in future years.
Richmond should continue to draft or trade for Greater Western Sydney’s 17-year-olds this year. Only after playing finals should the Tigers implement plans to be a “major player” in acquiring talent via trade.
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It’s simple for the Saints – if you have the money, spend it. Rumours of the club putting forward a $12 million, eight-year deal…
Absolutely unnecessary from Dunstall!
Once an enemy of the Bombers, always an enemy of the Bombers!
You can't believe anything you see on social media!
How good from Lloyd Johnston and his mum!
