If the betting agencies know best, then keep it locked on the NRL this weekend, because the majority of round 20 of the AFL is a foregone conclusion.
Remarkably, the favourite will start at $1.14 or shorter in six of the eight AFL matches.
According to Sportsbet:
– St Kilda is $1.13 vs Fremantle
– Geelong is $1.01 vs Gold Coast
– Carlton is $1.13 vs Melbourne
– Collingwood is $1.01 vs Port Adelaide
– Hawthorn is $1.14 vs North Melbourne
– West Coast is $1.10 vs Richmond
In contrast, just one team will start shorter than $1.20 in the NRL if the prices stay the same as they are today.
The NRL may be trailing the AFL in several areas, but rugby league can’t be labelled predictable in 2011.
Unless there’s a massive shift in fortunes, which at the moment seems unlikely, Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton and Hawthorn will battle it out for the two spots in the AFL Grand Final.
The teams in places five to eight – West Coast, Sydney, St Kilda and Fremantle – don’t seem capable of challenging at this stage.
The scene is completely different in the NRL.
Melbourne, Manly, North Queensland and Brisbane occupy the top four spots on the ladder, but danger is lurking just below them.
The fifth-placed Dragons were considered such a certainty in May that Sportsbet already paid punters who’d backed them to win the minor premiership.
The Warriors are capable of producing the best and worst the game has to offer and often on the same day.
The Wests Tigers are the team Melbourne captain Cameron Smith says no-one wants to play come finals time.
Even Dave Taylor, the hulk-like forward for the 11th placed Rabbitohs, believes South Sydney can win the premiership.
That dream is being fuelled by the Bunnies’ amazing come-from-behind win over St George Illawarra on Sunday. How quickly we forget they were thrashed 48 to 16 by the Warriors the week before.
It seems the statistics don’t back up my gut feeling though.
The Daily Telegraph revealed yesterday that just five of the previous 24 teams who’ve sat four points outside the top eight with five rounds remaining have seen finals action.
South Sydney are in that position at the moment, but they seem perfectly capable of mixing it with anyone if they’re switched on.
Where there’s life there’s hope.
It’s a lot more than can be said for the majority of teams in the AFL.
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