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Preview of AFL Round 21 matches (all times AEST):
FRIDAY, Aug 12
St Kilda v Collingwood at Etihad Stadium 7.40pm
Head to Head: Saints 57 Magpies 152 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 11 2011 – Magpies 16.12 (108) bt Saints 7.9 (51) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Saints $5.75 Magpies $1.12
Sportingbet: Saints $5.85 Magpies $1.14
The Saints have won their last six games and are back in the top eight. This will be the ultimate test of how much they have improved. St Kilda’s famed defensive pressure is back and their ball movement has been much more fluent. Still, the Magpies juggernaut is rolling along ruthlessly towards September, their midfield depth is frightening and they should eventually prove too strong for St Kilda. But expect the Saints to push the reigning premiers hard.
Key: Saints captain Nick Riewoldt has been held goalless in his last two games against Collingwood and his side needs a massive game from the inspirational key forward.
Tip: Magpies by 30 points
SATURDAY, Aug 13
Hawthorn v Port Adelaide at MCG 2.10pm
Head to Head: Hawks 8 Power 15
Last clash: Round 7 2011 – Hawks 15.14 (104) bt Power 10.12 (72) at AAMI Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.01 Power $13.00
Sportingbet: Hawks $1.01 Power $17.00
After a week of talk about one-sided matches, this one will probably turn very ugly as well. Here is a great chance for Hawthorn to take control early and build percentage ahead of the finals. In further bad news for Port, Hamish Hartlett will miss the rest of the season because of shoulder surgery. Hartlett is among eight changes to the Port team this weekend. Heaven help the Power if Lance Franklin cuts loose around goal.
Key: Midfielder Travis Boak has stood out with some solid form for the Power in the last month. If a few of team-mates can start following his example, maybe this might become interesting.
Tip: Hawks by 80 points
Fremantle v Carlton at Subiaco 3.10pm
Head to Head: Dockers 14 Blues 10
Last clash: Round 22 2010 – Dockers 13.15 (93) bt Blues 13.9 (87) at Subiaco
Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $3.00 Blues $1.36
Sportingbet: Dockers $3.10 Blues $1.38
Fremantle are now out of the top eight and desperately need an upset win here to remain the masters of their own destiny. They have beaten Carlton in 11 of their 13 meetings, but injuries remain a serious problem. Ruckman Aaron Sandilands, if he comes up, will be a major inclusion and Ryan Crowley is also back. Beyond personnel, the Dockers need to show the fight that earnt them plenty of plaudits last Friday night against St Kilda. Carlton hold fourth by only half a game and must keep winning.
Key: Matthew Pavlich and Nat Fyfe have been superb for the Dockers, but they were off their best against the Saints and need to fire at home.
Tip: Blues by 20 points
Western Bulldogs v Essendon at Etihad Stadium 7.10pm
Head to Head: Bulldogs 60 Bombers 89 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 1 2011 – Bombers 16.17 (113) bt Bulldogs 8.10 (58) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $2.00 Bombers $1.75
Sportingbet: Bulldogs $2.10 Bombers $1.75
The Bombers are back in the eight and technically the Bulldogs can still make the finals. This is one Essendon must win to shore up a ticket to September. Essendon were very lucky to beat Sydney last week, but their injury problems are easing. Key defender Tayte Pears is the latest recall and, if they’re on, the Bombers should win. Nevertheless, Essendon are no certainties and the Bulldogs will fancy a chance to be finals spoilers.
Key: Young Essendon key defender Jake Carlisle continues to impress, but is he ready for Barry Hall? The Bulldog forward is ending his career with a bang, kicking 10 goals in his last two games.
Tip: Bombers by 20 points
Brisbane v Gold Coast Suns at Gabba 7.10pm
Head to Head: Lions 0 Suns 1
Last clash: Round 7 2011 – Suns 18.16 (124) bt Lions 17.14 (116) at Gabba
Tab Sportsbet: Lions $1.36 Suns $3.00
Sportingbet: Lions $1.36 Suns $3.20
Already, there is a bit of feeling to the AFL’s newest local derby. The Lions could not deliver on their pre-game talk in round seven and will be angry after blowing last Sunday’s match against Adelaide. Gold Coast must rebound quickly after Geelong took a hold of them at Skilled Stadium by 150 points. Suns captain Gary Ablett is a crucial inclusion for the Suns, who made five changes.
Key: Brisbane’s Matthew Leuenberger and Suns opponent Zac Smith should be their team’s main ruckmen for many seasons to come. They have been in solid form and will have another big duel on Saturday.
Tip: Lions by 30 points
SUNDAY, Aug 14
Melbourne v West Coast at Etihad Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Demons 15 Eagles 26
Last clash: Round 6 2011 – Eagles 15.16 (106) bt Demons 6.16 (52) at Subiaco
Tab Sportsbet: Demons $4.25 Eagles $1.20
Sportingbet: Demons $4.50 Eagles $1.21
Off the field, there’s been some badly-needed good news for the Demons as they’ve re-signed players, including Jack Trengove, and raised more funds. But on the field Sunday looms as another smashing, with the Eagles set to kill off finals hopes that never looked realistic anyway for Melbourne. The West Coast mean machine is back, they’re nearly in the top four and there will no mercy for the dreadful Ds.
Key: West Coast ruckman Dean Cox is averaging more than 30 hitouts a game but Melbourne have recalled Mark Jamar for a clash which should prove pivotal.
Tip: Eagles by 60 points
Richmond v Sydney at MCG 2.10pm
Head to Head: Tigers 101 Swans 83 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 12 2011 – Swans 9.21 (75) bt Tigers 9.11 (65) at SCG
Tab Sportsbet: Tigers $3.30 Swans $1.30
Sportingbet: Tigers $3.40 Swans $1.33
Sydney only have themselves to blame for the loss to Essendon last weekend as their inaccurate goalkicking was again an issue. The Swans kicked 2.9 in the last quarter. But they look too good for the Tigers, who are limping to the end of the season with six-straight losses. Sydney have a good run home, they continue to play with plenty of intensity and they should make the finals.
Key: Two-time Brownlow Medallist Adam Goodes was brilliant against Essendon, only letting himself down with a couple of missed goals. Perhaps Shane Tuck has the stopping role on him.
Tip: Swans by 40 points
Adelaide v Geelong at AAMI Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Crows 15 Cats 16
Last clash: Round 14 2011 – Cats 19.11 (125) bt Crows 10.13 (73) at Skilled Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Crows $8.50 Cats $1.05
Sportingbet: Crows $9.50 Cats $1.06
Mark Bickley, meet the Geelong steamroller. The caretaker Crows coach has started well with two wins, but Adelaide will be no match for the team tipped to play Collingwood in the grand final. The Cats have won their last two games by 186 and 150 points, so Adelaide had better bring their A game. Geelong continue to chop and change their team without missing a beat, with Brad Ottens and Corey Enright back this week.
Key: Steve Johnson is in dynamic form and must be sat on. Do the Crows keep Graham Johncock in attack, which worked well last week, and give Brent Reilly the job?
Tip: Cats by 60 points
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