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League Round 23 preview panel

11th August, 2011
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Preview of League Round 23 matches (all times AEST):

FRIDAY, Aug 12

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos at Dairy Farmers Stadium 7.35pm

Head to Head: Cowboys 5 Broncos 23 drawn 2

Last clash: Round 1 2011 – Cowboys 16 bt Broncos 14 at Suncorp Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Cowboys $1.95 Broncos $1.85

FootyTAB: Cowboys +1.5

One of the biggest matches of the season and the biggest NRL game played in Townsville for a number of years. Darren Lockyer’s record-breaking 350th match is sure to get the Broncos up, but the milestone affair is likely to have the Cowboys primed as well. The battle between third and fourth on the ladder could see the Cowboys leapfrog their Queensland rivals if they get the points. North Queensland will receive a huge boost from the returns of Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott from injury. However, it remains to be seen whether front rower Scott can have his usual impact as he’s still yet to fully recover from back complaints, and Thurston might be a little tentative on his knee. If Cowboys big men Scott, James Tamou and Ashton and Tariq Sims can get the home side going, Thurston and Matt Bowen will do the rest. Their job will be made a little easier with Brisbane prop Ben Hannant out of action, although newly appointed 2012 captain Sam Thaiday won’t be taking a backward step.

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Key: Legend Lockyer will inspire his teammates and a firing Peter Wallace, Thaiday and Justin Hodges might be too much for the Cowboys to deal with.

Tip: Broncos

Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers at Centrebet Stadium 7.35pm

Head to Head: Panthers 14 Tigers 6

Last clash: Round 11 2011 – Tigers 20 bt Panthers 18 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Panthers $2.75 Tigers $1.45

FootyTAB: Panthers +6.5

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Even if the Panthers go through the rest of the season undefeated, it’s unlikely it will be enough for top eight qualification with a six-point break still to make up. However, Penrith still should have plenty to play for – they want to send departing skipper Petero Civoniceva out on a high note and the players are desperate to give interim coach Steve Georgallis a winning record to enhance his chances of getting a fulltime gig next season. The Panthers have an excellent record over the Tigers and despite Wests’ strong form, things won’t be easy for them at the foot of the mountain. Chris Lawrence’s absence at centre is a big blow, as Benji Marshall has now lost his key go-to man in attack. The Tigers have been in great touch, but they can’t afford complacency. They’re still in eighth spot and to avoid playing Melbourne in an elimination final they can’t afford a loss.

Key: Michael Jennings’ selection at fullback for Penrith is an interesting one, as he attempts to transfer his skills to a roving role. The Tigers defence has been outstanding in recent weeks and if they maintain that they will be too strong. Problem is, the Panthers can often suck teams into a high score

Tip: Tigers

SATURDAY, Aug 13

Warriors v Newcastle Knights at Mt Smart Stadium 5.30pm

Head to Head: Warriors 12 Knights 14 drawn 1

Last clash: Round 10 2011 – Warriors 25 bt Knights 16 at Ausgrid Stadium

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Tab Sportsbet: Warriors $1.45 Knights $2.75

FootyTAB: Knights +6.5

Top eight wise, this is the most important match of the weekend. Both sides are locked on 26 competition points – a win will almost guarantee finals qualification, a loss opens the door slightly for the likes of Canterbury and South Sydney to make a late play for their position. The sixth placed Warriors have been in excellent form and shouldn’t lose heart from last Saturday’s gripping one-point loss to Brisbane at Suncorp. The Warriors showed they are the real deal in that match, and just need to get back to business on their home turf. Newcastle’s attack has clicked into gear the past two weeks, however the Warriors are a far better football team than the Gold Coast and Canberra – who the Knights piled a combined total of 90 points on in those matches. An upset win on the road will require the Knights forwards to assert their dominance early – Neville Costigan and Chris Houston need to lead this from the front.

Key: Warriors playmakers James Maloney, Kevin Locke and Shaun Johnson are the “spine” of the side and with Manu Vatuvei a near certainty for at least one try per match on the wing – the Aucklander’s should have too much for the Novocastrians.

Tip: Warriors

Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles at Parramatta Stadium 7.30pm

Head to Head: Eels 44 Sea Eagles 77 drawn 4

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Last clash: Round 15 2011 – Sea Eagles 22 bt Eels 18 at Brookvale Oval

Tab Sportsbet: Eels $3.25 Sea Eagles $1.33

FootyTAB: Eels +9.5

Although Parramatta’s finals chances died almost a month ago, their brave showings against Penrith, Canterbury and Melbourne indicated there was plenty of promising signs for the Eels next season. However, last Monday’s 56-6 hiding at the hands South Sydney has the potential to undo all the progress the Eels had made. Parramatta are now risking their first wooden spoon finish since 1972, after captain Nathan Hindmarsh openly questioned the attitude of some of the players. If you’re trying to get back on top, you couldn’t find a tougher team to do it against than Manly, who won’t give an inch. The loss of Sea Eagles skipper Jason King is a significant one though, and fellow front rowers Brent Kite and George Rose have a mammoth challenge ahead to keep the Manly machine rolling forward.

Key: Manly are looking too slick to drop their bundle and lose this match. To be a chance Parramatta need to shut down the turnstiles that were operating in defence last week, and play with belief. Easier said than done.

Tip: Sea Eagles

Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm at Skilled Park 7.30pm

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Head to Head: Titans 3 Storm 3

Last clash: Round 2 2011 – Storm 40 bt Titans 12 at AAMI Park

Tab Sportsbet: Titans $6.25 Storm $1.12

FootyTAB: Titans +16.5

Until last week’s breakthrough win over Cronulla, the Gold Coast seemed lost in a dark hole and the wooden spoon appeared certain. But the gutsy victory over the Sharks has brought them closer to fellow stragglers Parramatta, Canberra and Sydney Roosters – and this will provide much needed motivation for the final weeks. After losing captain Scott Prince to a broken arm, getting a result over Melbourne is perhaps too much to ask, but his injury gives Preston Campbell a fitting send-off. Campbell has been restricted to the bench in recent weeks but he now has the chance to bow out of the game in the halfback position where he won the Dally M medal in 2001. Melbourne were very strong in the second half of last week’s win over Penrith and for confidence sake, they’ll be looking for another suffocating performance over desperate opposition.

Key: Gold Coast rediscovered spirit in their goal-line defence against the Sharks and they’ll need to dig in for each other again. The Storm won’t be at their best with the finals still a few weeks away, but the “big three” Smith, Slater and Cronk will see them home.

Tip: Storm

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SUNDAY, Aug 14

Canberra Raiders v South Sydney Rabbitohs at Canberra Stadium 2.00pm

Head to Head: Raiders 27 Souths 16

Last clash: Round 7 2010 – Souths 26 bt Raiders 24 at Canberra Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Raiders $2.15 Souths $1.68

FootyTAB: Raiders +2.5

This is a huge test for South Sydney. In the form they’re in, they should continue riding the wave to another comprehensive victory over Canberra, the disappointments of the NRL season. But consistency hasn’t been a strong point of the Rabbitohs for the past 20 years and the Raiders at Canberra Stadium is an ominous danger game. Coach John Lang needs the Bunnies to remain in their groove and if they do that the loser of the Warriors and Newcastle match brings them back into the top eight running. But if their minds start to wander prematurely to thinking about finals football, Canberra’s big forwards and strike weapon Josh Dugan can pull their pants down.

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Key: It’s pretty simple for Souths. Chris Sandow, Issac Luke, Greg Inglis, Nathan Merritt and Dave Taylor – keep doing what you’re doing.

Tip: Souths

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters at WIN Stadium 3.00pm

Head to Head: Dragons 16 Roosters 8 drawn 1

Last clash: Round 7 2011 – Dragons 24 bt Roosters 10 at Sydney Football Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Dragons $1.12 Roosters $6.25

FootyTAB: Roosters +16.5

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Coming off three straight defeats, St George Illawarra should be in a vulnerable position for this match – but the Sydney Roosters behaviour this week has virtually gifted the Dragons a chance to play themselves back into form. Roosters stars Todd Carney, Nate Myles and Frank-Paul Nuuausala won’t play after breaking the team’s trust and going out drinking midweek (Nuuausala was already suspended by the judiciary, while Carney and Myles were stood down). The Chooks were already gutted by last week’s dismal effort against Manly, but after being so significantly let down by their team-mates – they’ll be doing well to put up a fight against the desperate Dragons. If you cast your eye over the draw at the beginning of the season, this round 23 grand final replay would have stood out as one of the matches of the season. Sadly the Dragons are limping and the Roosters are dangerously close to falling flat on their face.

Key: The Dragons were determined against the Tigers last week, despite not getting the points. A similarly committed effort and they’ll be back on the winners’ list and back in the top four hunt.

Tip: Dragons

MONDAY, Aug 15

Cronulla Sharks v Canterbury Bulldogs at Toyota Stadium 7.00pm

Head to Head: Sharks 30 Bulldogs 50 drawn 2

Last clash: Round 15 2011 – Sharks 26 bt Bulldogs 10 at ANZ Stadium

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Tab Sportsbet: Sharks $2.25 Bulldogs $1.65

FootyTAB: Sharks +4.5

South Sydney are standing out as the most likely team to make a belated run for the top eight, but Canterbury are a genuine chance also if they play their cards correctly. Although next week’s clash with Manly will be difficult, against Cronulla on Monday night and in their final two matches against Newcastle and Canberra – they are more than capable of winning. They’re not going to pile on points like the Rabbitohs are doing, but ugly victories are worth just as much and the Bulldogs just need to do whatever they can to get a result. Things aren’t working like critics thought they would at the start of the season, but the likes of Ben Barba, Trent Hodkinson and Jamal Idris are more than capable of match-winning moments. Cronulla are boosted by Paul Gallen successfully fighting suspension at the judiciary, but their recent efforts against the Knights and Gold Coast will be difficult to come back from. They fought hard for a long time, but another season is gone for the Sharks and the Bulldogs should have too much to play for.

Key: Canterbury hooker Josh Reynolds has been one of the finds of the season. He’s got plenty of spark to his game, but more importantly he’s hungry and gives everything he’s got to every play. The Dogs need only follow his lead.

Tip: Bulldogs

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