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Collingwood's Darren jolly and St Kilda's Jason Blake Contest the ruck during the 2010 Toyota AFL Grand Final between the Collingwood Magpies and the St Kilda Saints at the MCG, Melbourne.
It’s not often that the second installment of the grand final rematch is bigger than the original, but that’s the case this season. Collingwood and St Kilda are going at it again and this time it feels right. Make sure you join us for live scores and a blog of Grand Final Rematch II.
After playing in two grand finals last year, you would have thought that when St Kilda and Collingwood met for the first time this season, it would be a salivating contest. But that was far from the truth.
Heading into the Round 11 clash between these two teams, Collingwood were unbackable favourites, having only lost one match all year taking on a St Kilda team that had lost double the amount of games they had won. On a big stage, it wasn’t a big game.
And while the Saints were gallant for a half, the result – an eight-goal Collingwood romp – was relatively predictable for the 62,000 in attendance at the MCG that night.
Tonight the circumstances couldn’t be more different.
Sure Collingwood are still flying – atop the AFL ladder, with only one loss and a percentage above 180, the Pies, rightfully, are premiership favourites.
But it is with St Kilda that the interest lies. Just as it did on the last day of September last year, the cards are firmly held in the hands of Ross Lyon and his 22 soldiers.
In the drawn grand final, St Kilda took Collingwood out of their comfort zone. And, save for a bad bounce in the dying seconds, stole the flag. As we all know, the game was drawn and the competition’s best team went on to win the replay handsomely.
In the rematch two months ago, the Saints were in the doldrums. There was (and still is) no Lenny Hayes, Brendon Goddard was flat and Nick Riewoldt equally sluggish.
The emergence of Jack Steven in the midfield and Ben McEvoy in ruck had not yet unfolded. They were leaking big scores, weren’t playing on at will and weren’t pressing the opposition like we had been accustomed to seeing throughout the 2009 and 2010 seasons.
Things are different now. Tonight’s game is at the home of “Saints footy” – Etihad, the very ground the St Kilda game plan loves. Not since Round 3 last year has St Kilda beaten Collingwood. Not since Round 3 last year has St Kilda played Collingwood in the closed confines of Docklands.
Goddard is now firing, Riewoldt is looming large again and even the much-maligned Justin Kosichitzke is playing good football. Brett Peake and Raphael Clarke are in career-best form and youngsters like Steven and McEvoy are playing the sort of football that inspires senior players.
After six wins a row, Lyon has St Kilda playing “Saints footy” again. After a horrid start to the year, a home final looks odds-on for the red, white and black. And, internally at least, for the first time in months, wins against the top-four teams are not only the cards but expected.
But Collingwood are imposing. Not only that, they are almost certainly better than what they were last year.
And just as the super-power wants to crush the enemy growing in confidence, the Pies will be hoping to take the fly squatter to the pesky Saints. Because despite all their recent progress, a spanking takes St Kilda out of premiership calculations.
The Pies have the luxury of not only throwing backman Chris Tarrant forward but bringing back Sharrod Wellingham and Harry O’Brien into a team that has a 17-1 winning record, coming off a 23-goal win last week.
Collingwood’s biggest strength lies in their talls: Travis Cloke (in Best and Fairest form), Leigh Brown, Darren Jolly and Chris Dawes. The loss of Dawes, weeks ago to injury, negates some of that power but if Tarrant goes forward, just as he is named, the St Kilda defence (that welcomes back Zac Dawson from suspension) will have its work cut-out.
The Pies don’t have many weaknesses. Their midfield (boasting the like of Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dale Thomas) is arguably more formidable than their forward line and their defence has been the tightest in the competition this season.
So if St Kilda is to win, they are going to have to be at their best. And that is something they are nearing.
This should be a great game. So much of it will be won and lost in the coaches’ box. I think if the Saints guns – Goddard, Riewoldt and the in-form Nick Dal Santo – are at their best, St Kilda can’t be counted out on their favourite track.
But it would be a slap to the face of the best team in the comp to tip against Collingwood. My gut is urging me to back in the Saints and if you fancy a bet the odds are certainly tempting but I’m going to tip an 18-point Pies win, in what shapes up as one of the games of the season.
LAST TIME: Collingwood 16.12 (108) d St Kilda 7.9 (51), Rnd 11, 2011, MCG
PAST FIVE: Collingwood 3 St Kilda 1 draw 1
RECORD OVERALL: Collingwood 152 St Kilda 57 draw 2
AT THIS GROUND: Collingwood 3 St Kilda 5
SINCE 2000: Collingwood 11 St Kilda 12 draw 1
BETTING: Collingwood $1.15 St Kilda $6.00
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