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Presuming the Springboks and All Blacks win their pools and their respective quarter finals, then they’ll meet in the semi-final on 16 October. If one of these teams don’t get there then a major upset would have already occurred in the pool stages or quarter final.
Let’s look at the record between these two sides since the last World Cup in 2007. Played 11, the Boks have won five and the All Blacks six. So, not much between them.
In 2009 it was a 3-0 clean swipe of the All Blacks, then in 2010 the All Blacks cleaned the Boks up 3-0. This year it stands at 1-1 with both teams sending under strength teams to each others respective countries. Two of the Boks’ wins have been in NZ, and three of the All Blacks’ wins have been in SA.
Interestingly though, in 2009 the All Blacks had under-performing locks and wings and most importantly no Dan Carter for the SA leg of the Tri-Nations, and when he did come back for the final game it didn’t worry the Boks and they beat them in any case, albeit DC would not have been at his fittest or best.
In 2010 the Boks did not have Fourie Du Preez, (the general) or Heinrich Brussow, and did not play play their settled and subjectively the best in the world centre combination of Jean De Villiers and Jaque Fourie once against the All Blacks.
The Jo’burg Test at Soccer City went right down to the wire in the final few minutes and a Jon Smit standing at flyhalf missed tackle on Ma’a Nonu sent them packing, and I can only presume this left a deep scar inside of them and proved that their fitness levels were not up to where they should’ve been to ensure the game was closed out and fought off a last minute resistance.
Therefore, in summary, if the Boks beat the All Blacks in this presumed and anticipated semi-final, then the record over the past four years will stand at six to six, or 50 percent record against each.
That is definitely not an upset to the host nation and rather just a true reflection of what the real stats are since the ’07 World Cup, where a large portion and core group of players of both of these teams have stayed the same.
People are saying the Boks are too old. But the All Blacks squad are ever so slightly older. Who will be fitter? Who will be stronger and faster? Who will be smarter? Who will get the rub of the green? Or a last minute drop goal or penalty? Only time will tell…
But there’s not much between these two teams. I could be horribly wrong and the All Blacks could smash the Boks (as they smashed the Boks B team this year), but it’s very highly unlikely considering their recent record against each other.
The Wallabies, however, are a different threat altogether and whichever one of SA or NZ go through to the final, they will have an uphill battle to face in the Aussies (if they get there too, of course). The Wallabies are the youngest squad in the WC, are looking extremely deadly and appear to be peaking at just the right time.
James Horwill’s selection as captain after a brilliant Reds season was a masterstroke, and I’d personally pick them as favourites to win the tournament, taking everything into account considering their route to the final. They also hold the Super Rugby title and the Tri-Nations, which speaks volumes.
The English and French are going to need some very good luck and a bit of flair if they want to win it, but I just can’t see them beating each other, then going on to beat two of the Tri-Nations teams twice in a row in a semi-final and final. It’s highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.
Back to the All Blacks. Home ground advantage and a number one ranking favours the All Blacks to win both this semi-final against the Boks and ultimately to win the cup, and this is never to be underestimated considering their phenomenal record at home, which is why many are considering them the favourites again.
But something to ponder about is that all of the teams will be acclimatised to the time zone, weather and surroundings by the time the playoffs kick in.
Who will win? I have no idea!? And none of us do! That’s the exciting thing. There is so much expectation in South Africa for the Boks to retain the title and so much expectation in NZ for the All Blacks to finally win it again, at home. And so much hope in Australia for their young team to come out firing and claim it as their own.
It’s going to be one cracker of a tournament, that’s one thing I know for sure!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.