Brisbane Lions captain, Jonathon Brown, along with a number of teammates and Lions coaching staff, have recently claimed the way the West Coast Eagles have gone from last in 2010 to fourth in 2011 should give the Lions fans hope for future seasons.
It is true that what the Eagles have achieved this year is exciting for the AFL, and should give many AFL fans hope in a league that has become so predictable that the fans of 12 clubs generally have no hope at the start of any given season.
But the story of the Eagles is merely an exception to the rule.
How do you expect a team like Port Adelaide or Brisbane or Adelaide or Richmond or North Melbourne or Sydney or Melbourne or Essendon to challenge for the top four in 2012, when the player-transfer system allows no immediate major upgrade to a club’s playing roster and they face losing key players to expansion, to sides like the Greater Western Sydney Giants?
No other sporting league in the world has such a rigid player-transfer system that condemns sides to failure for several seasons.
Brown provides a far-reaching comparison that identifies the similarities between the Lions and Eagles that is meant to give the impression that the Lions could, with a bit of luck, repeat the Eagles achievements in 2012.
The fact Brown fails to acknowledge in his recent article is the electrifying, game influencing, former number two overall draft pick in Nic Naitanui, which shows how far he is, off the mark and that he is drawing a very long bow.
Even putting Naitanui aside, here are the reasons why the Lions won’t even come close to winning or even competing in as many games as the Lions have this year:
1. The Eagles have eight premiership players on their roster, all of who are not older than 30 years of age.
With the retirement/sacking of Luke Power, the Lions will have three premiership players in 2012, one of who is above 30 years of age.
2. Furthermore, the Eagles have something to show for the departure of their premiership captain, Josh Kennedy, who is a key piece in their effective forward line.
The Lions have nothing to show for the departure of their premiership captain on their playing roster.
3. The Eagles have an edge in player development as they have stronger links to player intelligence within the WAFL and their reserves players get to ply their trade in the stronger competition of the WAFL.
The Lions reserves players get to ply their trade in the much weaker NEAFL.
4. The Eagles’ playing roster has four top four overall draft pick players, two of whom are barely good enough to make the side’s best 22.
The Lions have one, top four overall draft pick player, who is a key tall player.
Even, with reference to the Lions’ big game experience, they have 14 players outside the non-premiership Lions players to have played in finals. This is mainly from the 2009 season when they fumbled their way to the second week of September only to be bundled out primarily due to a lack of speed and skill from their midfield brigade.
This is something that has not been addressed in their playing roster since and also not helped by the departure of key players Jared Brennan, Michael Rischitelli and Daniel Bradshaw.
The highest a defending wooden spooner has finished in the AFL during the past 10 seasons is ninth (in 2008, Richmond Tigers) with every other side finishing 12th or lower.
The fact the Eagles are on the verge of finishing in the top four in 2011 is an exception to the rule and can be put down to the entry of the Gold Coast Suns, which has diluted the playing talent amongst AFL clubs (which the Eagles were not affected by and the Lions severely were).
They have also had an effective rebuilding program which has involved mixing the following:
• An accumulation of multiple high draft picks;
• Maintaining a core group of premiership players; and
• Good mid-range draft picks from the local WAFL competition (e.g. Mark LeCras and Jack Darling)
Taking all of this into account, you could say the 2011 Brisbane Lions has half the potential of the 2010 West Coast Eagles.
So unfortunately for Lions fans, there is nothing that can be drawn from the 2011 Eagles that can give them hope for the 2012 season.
You would imagine if the Lions were ever to be a chance of repeating a turnaround in the ilk of the Eagles, they would have to keep key player Mitchell Clark, while also have some young talented prospects to show for the looming departures of their ageing premiership stars of which they have already let go of one for nothing.
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Last, year in the second showdown, Adelaide destroyed Port by 47 points with a staggering 20 marks inside 50 with Tex Walker the main star.
If the Lions are clever they can use this season as a passing of the guard season and send off some very talented players whilst also trying to be competitive.
There’s no disputing that Cam Guthrie will be important against Melbourne, given Patrick Dangerfield is set to miss due to injury.
The AFL need a more simple approach to high contact and one that makes players accountable, regardless of intent.
Collingwood led by a point with minutes to go, Kyle Langford had the chance to be the hero with a set shot, however, he missed, and we saw the first draw of the season.
We’re taking a look at one player from each team that needs to make a difference this week, starting with the ANZAC Day games.
