The loss of Dan Carter for the rest of the Rugby World Cup 2011 is a blow for the All Blacks, but it’s not the knockout punch that some seem to think it is.
Sure, Carter is one of the best in his position and his understudy, Colin Slade, is inexperienced at the top level, but rugby is a 15-man game and no player, however good, can determine his team’s fate.
Against Canada, Slade played much as he would be expected to, like a back-up who hadn’t trained a lot with the top team.
There were some breakdowns in communication and some nerves on his part, but he also showed flashes of brilliance, setting up several tries. Then again, it was only Canada.
But the outlook is good for the All Blacks. Firstly the draw is working quite well in their favour as their quarter-final opponents, Argentina, look quite beatable.
After that, they will face either South Africa or Australia who have both been misfiring worse than the All Blacks
The other thing counting in the All Blacks’ favour is time. Slade now has a week to work with the top team, to establish a combination with his second five, almost certainly Ma’a Nonu.
More importantly, he has time to get used to the fact that he is now the man, this is not a one-week promotion to the starting line-up, but is a full-time position in the pivot position for the next three weeks, we hope.
Finally, the injury to Carter will force a rethink in the All Blacks’ tactics.
They will likely adopt a tighter game, keeping the ball in the forwards as well as giving the centre pairing of Nonu and Conrad Smith more time with ball in hand, and placing a much sterner emphasis on defence.
Without Carter to set the backline alight, the All Blacks will not score as many tries, so will need to compensate by keeping their line intact.
It can be done, it’s been done in other sports before.
The 2000 Baltimore Ravens won the SuperBowl with Trent Dilfer, an average quarterback by NFL standards, by placing a greater emphasis on their strengths. This is the model the All Blacks need to adopt.
We, as fans, just need to keep believing, because the World Cup dream is still very much alive.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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