So here we are again, another unpredictable NRL season dawns upon us; the time of year when armchair experts discuss their premiership predictions for a handful of teams.
There aren’t many things the NRL has over the AFL, however rugby league can lay claim to a more unpredictable competition.
Last year, after only a month of the 2011 AFL season, it was pretty obvious that Collingwood and Geelong would contest the grand final. This was even more obvious once the nearest challenger, Hawthorn, had their campaign derailed by Jarryd Roughead’s injury. As for last year’s NRL season, the odds would have been pretty good for punters who picked a Manly versus New Zealand grand final.
The sporting odds for the upcoming NRL and AFL seasons indicate we are in for much of the same, except the NRL has the added bonus of having a serious new premiership contender due to the league operating a much more flexible player transfer system.
Having looked at each of the clubs prospects for this year in view of how they have performed recently and roster changes, teams be broken down into the tiers below. In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the ride to grand final day where two Tier One teams will face off for the trophy.
My prediction: a Melbourne-Wests Tigers grand final.
Tier One: The six top-four contenders
1. Wests Tigers
The mental scars obtained from the nightmare exit of 2011, plus the do it for Gareth Ellis factor, mean the Tigers will be the most determined team in the league to get revenge for last season. The loss of forwards Andrew Fifita and Bryce Gibbs to Cronulla has been neutralised by Adam Blair.
The Robert Lui – Tim Moltzen half-back swap appears to be an upgrade, especially considering James Tedesco is Moltzen 2.0 at fullback. To be honest, the pressure on Tedesco is enormous because fullback is a critical position. For example, the 1981 Parammatta Eels were the last premiership team that had a rookie fullback.
Considering this, the Tigers would have to buck a 30 year old trend to win this years competition, but they have all the other premiership ingredients in place.
2. Melbourne
The Storm are a close second to the Tigers in terms of attaining revenge for last season. Cooper Cronk is likely to produce career best form given he is in a contract year. You would have to say the Storm roster is weaker with the loss of Adam Blair and Beau Champion but their replacements will adequately fill the side’s role-playing philosophy that effectively ensures a top-four finish. That is, as long as Cronk, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith are in the side.
3. Manly
The impact of the departure of Des Hasler’s coaching regime on the team for this season will be minor in comparison to the premiership hangover. Add to that, they will also be lacking the “us against the world” attitude stemming from the Stewart-Gallop saga which undoubtedly played a motivating role in winning the title last year.
In saying that, they have passed through the pre-season and season launch scandal-free, it seems the 2012 hangover will be less than the 2009 hangover. Roster-wise, they have lost some talent and experience in the backline, but not to the extent that they won’t make the top four.
4. New Zealand
A combination of Ivan Cleary’s departure, pre-season injuries to the squad, and the loss of the ability to shock opponents like they did in last year’s finals will potentially result in a slow start to the 2012 season. The squad is filled with young and talented players and Brian McClelland is good choice as coach to limit the potential of having a hangover from last year’s high. I’m not expecting a grand final appearance from them but they are unquestionably top-four contenders.
5. Newcastle
I can’t remember a Wayne Bennett coached side that wasn’t a top-four contender and the squad he’s assembled has as much potential as the recent Dragons sides. However, the Storm under Craig Bellamy have become Bennett’s bogey team: the Dragons were only able to win the comp when Melbourne were suspended. Bennett hasn’t been able to properly overcome the Storm since 2006.
In terms of roster changes, the shift of Gidley to five-eighth and the return of the ageing Danny Buderus means the Knights have a one-dimensional kicking game that lives and dies by Jarrod Mullen, who has not led the team to any great success in his career. Bennett can lead the Knights to a Minor Premiership in his first year like he did with the Dragons, but premiership teams are usually built over at least 2-3 years. Expect success for the Knights in future.
6. St George-Illawarra
Let’s consider the Wayne Bennett factor for a moment. The Bennett-less Broncos actually went closer to the title in 2009 and 2011 than the Bennett-coached Dragons. In 2010, the Broncos defeated the Dragons in Round 21 and lost Darren Lockyer for the rest of the season in the following round. They fell from two points away from second position and missed the finals completely.
All three seasons could have been premiership years for the Broncos had they not endured a key playmaker injury to round out the end of each season (Peter Wallace in 2009 and Lockyer in 2010-11). This is especially so in 2009 when they were eliminated by the eventual asterisk premiers Melbourne, who the NRL didn’t punish until six months later. In summary, the Broncos didn’t miss Bennett on the field, partly because his legacy remained.
While the Dragons showed signs of wearing down toward the end of last year, ultimately they were eliminated by the smallest of margins by arguably last season’s two best teams, the Tigers and Broncos, in two barnstorming contests. Fundamentally their roster hasn’t changed too much since, Chase Stanley is protentially an upgrade on Gasnier at centre who was running on fumes at the end.
Also, Kyle Stanley doesn’t have to set the world on fire to replace Darius Boyd who was quite bland in attack last year and didn’t have his best season. Bennett’s mark on the Dragons, being disciplined and consistent, should still remain at the club and that means they have the ability to make the top-four.
Stay tuned for Part Two and the remaining two tiers tomorrow.
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