In our ongoing efforts to ramp up the UFC coverage here at The Roar, we’re combining our powers to deliver a tag team effort on the predictions front for Sunday morning’s UFC event.
Joining me for this edition of The Roaring Predictions is the lovely and talented Erin Tierney.
Rather than just hearing what I have to say about Sunday’s four main card fights, we thought it would serve you better to get two opinions on how each pairing will play out inside the Octagon.
In addition to reading our takes on the fights, we encourage you to share your picks in the comment section as well. We want to start building a real community of fight fans here on The Roar, and if we can generate enough interest in predicting the fights, maybe we’ll start running some contests and handing out prizes.
You can’t tell me that people don’t like free prizes!
Here are our thoughts on Sunday’s fights: please enjoy responsibly.
Nate Diaz versus Jim Miller
Erin: This is such a tough fight given that it is to determine the #1 lightweight contender, taking on either Benson Henderson or Frankie Edgar at a later date. Both fighters are coming off wins, but if Nate Diaz turns up this weekend puts in another performance similar to what we witnessed against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone at UFC 141 in December 2011, it is really hard to pick against him, even in a fight against Jim Miller.
Miller’s number one advantage is that he isn’t intimidated by his opponents, which is handy when facing one of the notorious Diaz brothers, who are known to intimidate and ‘get angry’ at their competitors in order to mentally prepare for the fight.
For Miller, he will have to focus on keeping the fight where his strengths are, and not playing to Nate’s game plan, which is primarily boxing, although he has had success on the ground. Miller will have to combine his wrestling and submission advantage with a significant reach and height disadvantage to take the win.
ESK: Over his last two fights, Nathan Diaz has looked more and more like his brother Nick, playing to his strengths, and using his long reach and excellent boxing to control opponents. He drew Cerrone into a stand-up battle back in December, and “Cowboy” paid the price.
That being said, Diaz isn’t as strong when he’s forced out of his comfort zone, and Miller has a similar style to the five lightweights who have gotten the better of Diaz in his UFC career. While he’s great in space, using his reach to pick guys apart, Diaz has struggled with grapplers who like to get inside, get him on the ground, and have strong top games, and Miller fits that bill.
Erin’s right about Miller being impervious to the unavoidable trash talk that will come from Diaz; I interviewed him for ufc.com and he told me it won’t bother him one bit, and I believe him.
As strong as Diaz has looked of late, Miller is the kind of gritty, focused opponent that gives him fits.
Erin’s Prediction: A performance like the one seen against “Cowboy” Cerrone will see Diaz take the win.
ESK’s Prediction: Miller grinds out a victory in an entertaining fight that goes the distance.
Josh Koscheck versus Johny Hendricks
Erin: This is a huge match-up that everyone has been eager to see since Hendricks knocked out Koscheck’s best friend Jon Fitch in 12 seconds at UFC 141 in December.
Hendricks is a tough competitor, sitting at 7-1 in the UFC, and is also a NCAA Division I wrestler, similar to Koscheck. He’s out to prove the Fitch knockout wasn’t a fluke, and earning a win over a former title challenger like Koscheck would certainly prove that point.
For Koscheck, the only enemy in this fight is himself. We saw a lacklustre performance against Mike Pierce, which may have been the result of a break-up between the top welterweight and his gym, AKA. If a focused Koscheck turns up on fight day, Hendricks will have a tough fight on his hands.
Provided that the fight gets past 15 seconds, experience will play a big part. With Koscheck being involved in a lot more high-pressure scenarios, he should be taking this fight much more seriously than the last.
ESK: I’m so torn on this fight because I’ve been a fan of Johny Hendricks since his days in the WEC, but know that Koscheck is a tough match-up for anyone, and counters Hendricks’ strengths well.
Koscheck admitted that he took Mike Pierce lightly, and nearly paid for it. While I think he’ll be completely focused heading into this one, this is an even tougher match-up, and Hendricks won’t let Koscheck sneak out a win on the scorecards by not being aggressive enough.
Though Koscheck is the more complete striker, I’d give Hendricks the edge in the power department, and you can be sure he’ll be looking to land that big left hand every chance he gets. It will be interesting to see how their wrestling balances out, as both were four-time All-Americans in college, but have very different styles; Hendricks being more of a grinder, while Koscheck is more athletic.
Erin’s Prediction: Koscheckan – provided that the right Koscheck turns up to fight.
ESK’s Prediction: Hendricks proves his win over Fitch wasn’t a fluke with a knockout win over the former title challenger.
Rousimar Palhares versus Alan Belcher
Erin: Palhares is riding the wave of success after his last fight at UFC 142 in Brazil, where he submitted Mike Massenzio with a nasty heel hook, and earned Submission of the Night. Belcher, on the other hand, has been out of the cage since September 2011.
The fact that Belcher has been out for a while could cause some concern; the September fight against Jason MacDonald, which he won in round one, was his first in over a year due to injury.
Palhares is on a good run at the moment, with recent wins over Dan Miller and Massenzio, and he should be able to get passed Belcher.
ESK: I absolutely love this fight!
Like Erin said, Palhares has been on a roll of late, earning three straight wins. The Brazilian submission machine has shown better stand-up skills over his last three fights as well, blasting Danny Miller with a headkick when they locked up at UFC 134.
The thing with Palhares is that he’s a bit of a loose cannon. From his premature celebration in the Miller fight to stopping mid-fight to complain to referee Herb Dean about Nate Marquardt feeling slippery, you never know when Palhares is going to have a brain cramp, and whether or not it’s going to cost him the fight.
I’m not all that worried about Belcher’s lack of activity of late; he looked tremendous against MacDonald back in September, and always comes to the cage prepared. He’s said he’s ready and willing to go to the ground with Palhares, but I have to believe that’s just a bit of gamesmanship on the part of “The Talent.”
He has a distinct advantage in the striking game, and if he can keep Palhares off his legs, he should be able to earn his fourth straight win. Of course, that’s been the game plan for everyone who has lined up across from Palhares to date, and not too many people have been successful.
Erin’s Prediction: Palhares’ good run will continue.
ESK’s Prediction: I think Belcher earns a stoppage.
Pat Barry versus Lavar Johnson
Erin: This looks to be “Pat Barry versus Ridiculous Reach Advantage, Part 2.”
Lavar Johnson has a similar reach to Cheick Kongo, and we all remember how that ended for Barry. That said, Barry did have Kongo on wobbly legs before getting knocked out himself.
Johnson is coming into his second UFC bout still with his untarnished record of no decision fights. He knocked out Joey Beltran with six seconds left in the opening round last time out, earning Knockout of the Night honours in the process. This was the first time that Beltran had been knocked out in competition.
While this fight is also quite difficult to predict, I don’t think Barry will have too many issues with Johnson’s reach. This could be the first time we see Johnson go the distance. With only one previous fight going into the third round, and only three going into the second, cardio might play a big role here.
ESK: Johnson looked nasty in his UFC debut, knocking out the Joey Beltran, a guy we dubbed “The Mexican Zombie” last year for his ability to absorb punishment without getting put away.
Though Johnson has a serious reach advantage, that’s nothing new for Barry, and really, it’s never been his opponent’s reach that has cost him in the past. Against Stefan Struve, it was his poor submission defence, and against Cheick Kongo, it was the fact that the French heavyweight connected with a desperation two-piece as Barry came stalking in looking for the finish.
Some people are going to think I’m crazy for saying what I’m about to say, but I think this is the fight where Barry shows off the ground game he’s been working on with the mammoth wrestlers he trains with out in Alexandria, Minnesota. The way to beat Johnson is to put him on his back, thereby taking away his one weapons: punching power.
Shane Del Rosario did it, Shawn Jordan did it, and I think Barry will too.
Erin’s Prediction: Barry – a tough competitor eager to keep his place on the roster.
ESK’s Prediction: Barry has said he’s not cutting his hair until he submits someone. I think he’ll be sitting in a barber’s chair after this one.
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