Next Tuesday at 3pm, the strongest ever running of the Melbourne Cup will take place at Flemington.
The 2012 Melbourne Cup must be pretty good, because it will be the first time the reigning winners of the Herbert Power (Group Two, 2400m handicap), Moonee Valley Cup (Group Two, 2500m, handicap), Queen Elizabeth (Group Three, 2500m, handicap) and Geelong Cup (Group Three, 2400m, handicap) won’t make the Melbourne Cup field.
Shahwardi (winner of the Herbert Power), Vatuvei (Moonee Valley Cup), Ironstein (Queen Elizabeth) and Gatewood (Geelong Cup) have all paid-up for the Cup and, as it stands now, will miss out.
If Makybe Diva was born in 2008 (instead of 1999) and was set to contest her first Melbourne Cup in 2012 (as opposed to 2003), she may scrape into Tuesday’s Cup as the final runner in the race. And if she didn’t make the cut for the 2012 Melbourne Cup, her legacy as a three-time winner of the handicap would be dead.
Makybe Diva entered the 2003 spring with her place in the Melbourne Cup sewn up. She won the 2002 Queen Elizabeth by a nose on the last day of the Flemington Carnival and, on 2003 Cup morning, was horse number 12 (tenth in the order of entry) in the 3200m handicap.
In contrast, last year’s Queen Elizabeth winner, Ironstein, scored in the same race by two and a half lengths.
Despite being a better credentialed animal (four-time stakes winner including two at Group Three and two at Listed grade) than what Makybe Diva was in 2003 (dual stakes winner including a Group Three and Listed victory), Ironstein is weighted 1kg less (7kgs below WFA scale compared to 6kgs below WFA) in the Melbourne Cup than what Makybe Diva was in her first Cup.
That means Ironstein, currently 30th in the order of entry, needs at least six horses above him to pull out of the Melbourne Cup to make next Tuesday’s field.
Ironstein wouldn’t win the Cup if he competed on Tuesday but that’s not the point.
It matters because the winner of this year’s Queen Elizabeth may be a progressive four-year old like Makybe Diva was in 2002 and, under the current rules of the race would struggle, much like Ironstein this year, to make the field for the 2013 Melbourne Cup.
It would be a massive blow to the legacy and integrity of the Melbourne Cup if future Makybes don’t make the field.
Makybe Diva’s 2003 Melbourne Cup was a significant running. Not only was it the first of ‘the Mighty Mare’s’ three victories but it was attended by the largest ever Melbourne Cup crowd of 123,736 people.
And it’s a Cup that resonates with me. It was my first ever Melbourne Cup attendance. When I look at my racebook from 2003 Cup Day and the results of the race, it’s clear ‘the race that stops a nation’ has evolved into a completely different beast in just ten years.
Of the horses that finished in the top ten in 2003; second, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth weren’t handicapped high enough to make the 2012 field. That’s right, six of the first ten horses home wouldn’t earn a start in this year’s Cup.
They are She’s Archie (2003 Geelong Cup runner-up), Zagalia (2003 Queensland Oaks winner), Grey Song (2003 Caulfield Cup runner-up), Distinctly Secret (2003 Kelt Capital winner which is a 2040m, Group One, weight-for-age race in New Zealand), Yakama (2003 Herbert Power winner) and Hugs Dancer (winner of the 2003 Listed grade Silver Cup at York which is the same race won by 2012 Cup chance Mount Athos earlier this year).
To make the 2012 Cup field, a horse needs to be a Group One winner or have weight-for-age form in the Southern Hemisphere. Alternatively, they need Group-class handicap form in Europe.
Furthermore, a horse will make the Cup field if they have won any of the 2012 Lexus (run on Derby Day), Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, Mackinnon Stakes (also run on Derby Day), Irish St Leger or Japanese Tenno Sho.
The Melbourne Cup is a handicap but it’s easily, by the length of the Flemington straight, the strongest handicap in the world. But it wasn’t always this way. In 2003, for example, the Melbourne Cup didn’t produce a field like it will in 2012.
In 2003, there was hardly any Royal Ascot form (in 2012 provided by Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, My Quest For Peace, Jakkalberry and Gatewood if he gains a start in the Cup), no Dubai World Cup Night form (Jakkalberry and in-turn Dunaden, Red Cadeaux and My Quest For Peace) and no Breeders Cup formlines (Dunaden and Mount Athos).
But in 2003 there was a horse called Mamool (who finished last). Mamool started favourite in the Cup because he was a dual Group One winner in Germany. In the lead-up to the 2003 Melbourne Cup, Mamool was beaten to the tune of seven lengths in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury.
Mount Athos, Cup player this year, won the 2012 Freer by nearly four lengths. And Mount Athos isn’t even the Melbourne Cup favourite. He mightn’t even be as short as 10/1 on Cup Day.
The Spring Carnival is full of races that are lead-ups to the Melbourne Cup. The entire six weeks of racing is built around the first Tuesday in November.
But not many horses that competed in those key lead-ups (like the Herbert Power, Moonee Valley Cup and Geelong Cup) will line-up on Tuesday.
The winner of the Herbert Power, Shahwardi, has very good French form. This season, he ran well in the Prix Kergolay, a race that, along with the Geelong Cup, produced the last two Melbourne Cup winners.
And English stayer Gatewood, who was this month’s Geelong Cup winner, has form through Arc de Triomphe third placegetter Masterstroke. Gatewood gave Masterstroke 5kgs in the Grand Prix de Deauville in August and finished alongside him. Masterstroke then produced a world-class performance at Longchamp.
Both Shahwardi and Gatewood deserve their place in the Melbourne Cup. But they aren’t going to get it. Not unless Gatewood wins the Lexus on Saturday.
The Victoria Racing Club (VRC) – who run racing at Flemington and, consequently, the Melbourne Cup – need to fix the qualification conditions of the Cup. At the moment, there is almost an impossible pathway to the race for young, up-and-coming Australian and New Zealanders.
So hard is it for the locals that even the progressive Europeans can’t make the field after winning some of our best staying handicaps.
The winner of the Herbert Power, Moonee Valley Cup, Geelong Cup and previous season’s Queen Elizabeth need to be assured of an automatic Melbourne Cup start. They must become ballot-free races.
If this occurs, more overseas horses will race earlier in the Spring Carnival in an attempt to guarantee their place and the sport will be better for it. Media and fan interest will spike sooner and the Cup field will be even stronger than what it is now, because it will include more horses in winning form.
And the next Makybe Diva will have their Cup spot secured as well.
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